Fun fact: In the NHL, the “pre” in preseason stands for predictions. We all have to make them, including you — the reader prediction contest is coming later this week, so be ready. For now, it’s my turn to lay my cards on the table, with my annual division-based attempt to dice up the league.
The rules, as always: I get four divisions, with exactly eight teams each. We’ll have the bottom-feeders, the middle-of-the-pack, the legitimate Stanley Cup contenders and then the teams I just have no idea about. Because I enjoy making my own life difficult, that eight teams per division rule is mandatory. (Insert your own joke here about the “no clue” division having all 32 teams in it otherwise.)
We’ll start from the bottom and work our way up…
The Bottom-Feeder Division
The good news, if you see your team here, is one of the teams from last year’s bottom-feeders went on to make the playoffs, so there’s hope. The bad news is another one of the teams from last year no longer exists, so… yeah.
San Jose Sharks
Last season: 19-54-9, -146 goals differential, dead last in the league.
Their offseason in six words: Won the lottery, got Macklin Celebrini.
Why they’re here: Because even the most optimistic Sharks fan didn’t think they’d be anywhere else. While they did sign a legitimate player in Tyler Toffoli, this is still the phase of the rebuild where it’s about running out the string on bad contracts and collecting young players. The good news is they’re doing a great job on that second piece. The bad news is it won’t pay off for another year or two, at least.
Anaheim Ducks
Last season: 27-50-5, -90, seventh in the Pacific.
Their offseason in six words: Didn’t add much, didn’t trade Zegras.
Why they’re here: They were very bad last year and didn’t improve during the offseason, so I ran the numbers and it says they’ll be bad again. They’re young, and sometimes young teams take bigger steps forward than you expect. And the John Gibson health news increases the uncertainty by temporarily replacing a known commodity with Lukáš Dostál to start the season; more variance is a good thing when you’re looking for a long shot. That said, there’s just too much ground to make up here, so the Ducks are an easy call for another year of bottom-feeder duty.
Chicago Blackhawks
Last season: 23-53-6, -111, last in the Central.
Their offseason in six words: Lots of reinforcements, probably not enough.
Why they’re here: The Hawks were busy over the summer, adding plenty of talent and quite possibly earning the title of the league’s most-improved team. But even if it all clicks, and even assuming Taylor Hall stays healthy and Connor Bedard takes a big stride toward MVP-level production, it still feels like there’s just too much ground to make up. Last year’s team was truly awful, so even the best-case scenario here isn’t all that good… yet.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Last season: 27-43-12, -64, last in the Eastern Conference.
Their offseason in six words: “I just miss him so much.”
Why they’re here: The Johnny Gaudreau tragedy means a bad team lost its best player, which should mean a tough season. Mix in dumping Patrik Laine, and even a new coach and GM shouldn’t be enough to get this group out of the basement.
All that said, we really don’t have a blueprint for how a team will respond to an unthinkable tragedy like losing Gaudreau. It’s possible the team and the community come together, not unlike what we saw with Vegas in 2017, especially if they can generate some momentum by upsetting teams like Florida, Colorado and Toronto early in the schedule. That would be a fantastic story, and it’s hard not to root for it. But the likelier scenario is still that they struggle through another difficult season.
Philadelphia Flyers
Last season: 38-33-11, -27, sixth in the Metro.
Their offseason in six words: The Matvei Michkov era has arrived.
Why they’re here: Because last year felt like an overachievement and we’re not sure if the goaltending will work behind a roster that, on paper, is just OK. That’s enough to offset the excitement of Michkov’s arrival and probably keep them outside of the playoff race. Of course, nobody believed in them last year either, and they spent the first four months of the season making us look bad.
Calgary Flames
Last season: 38-39-5, -14, fifth in the Pacific.
Their offseason in six words: Markström traded, maybe rebuilding, maybe not.
Why they’re here: This might feel a little too negative; the Flames have traded away a ton of veteran talent in the last year, but they haven’t stripped it all down to the studs. They don’t seem like they want to, either, at least based on what the front office has been saying. It’s certainly possible Dustin Wolf lives up to the hype and keeps them closer to middle-of-the-pack, but all things considered, it’s probably better for their long-term hopes if this bottom-dweller prediction comes true.
Montreal Canadiens
Last season: 30-36-16, -49, last in the Atlantic.
Their offseason in six words: Rolled the dice on Patrik Laine.
Why they’re here: There’s some budding optimism in Montreal, and you can see why. The prospects are strong, the roster is young enough to improve organically and while Laine represents a significant gamble, he’s at least one with some upside if and when he’s healthy. The lingering question is still whether the ceiling is high enough, both among the Nick Suzuki/Cole Caufield types and the kids on the way. That’s probably not a question that gets answered this year because that undetermined ceiling is still a few years away.
Seattle Kraken
Last season: 34-35-13, -18, sixth in the Pacific.
Their offseason in six words: Long UFA deals, plus new coach.
Why they’re here: We spent a few years waiting to see if Ron Francis would get more aggressive in building this roster, and when he did on July 1 nobody seemed to like the results. Aside from one year where they shot the lights out in a plainly unsustainable way, this has been a very mediocre team at best. Maybe that gets them closer to middle-of-the-pack than where I have them, but that’s as far as my optimism can stretch.
The Middle-of-the-Pack Division
It’s not a bad place to be as long as you’re passing through. Get stuck here for more than a couple of years, though, and the future starts looking mighty bleak.
Ottawa Senators
Last season: 37-41-4, -31, seventh in the Atlantic.
Their offseason in six words: New goalie, new coach, annual optimism.
Why they’re here: Because I only just now realized they finished just two points ahead of the Canadiens last year. I knew their season was disappointing, but I didn’t realize it was quite that bad. Still, a year of Linus Ullmark should be enough to get them back over .500, and continued development from the youth could put them squarely in the playoff race. Yes, I know we say that every year, but this time we mean it.
Washington Capitals
Last season: 40-31-11, -36, swept in the first round.
Their offseason in six words: Honestly, they maybe kind of cooked?
Why they’re here: Because they were a playoff team last year who seemed to get better in the offseason, but literally nobody seems to be picking them for the postseason this time around. I get it because I’m not picking them either. But with an apparent upgrade in net, plus the addition of Jakob Chychrun and Andrew Mangiapane and fourth-time-is-the-charm Pierre-Luc Dubois, you can at least imagine them gliding into another wildcard and making us all look silly.
New York Islanders
Last season: 39-27-16, -13, lost in first round.
Their offseason in six words: Mostly quiet, although Duclair could work.
Why they’re here: They’ve pretty much owned this territory for a while now, finishing between 84 and 94 points for three straight years without ever getting out of round one. On paper, the forwards aren’t good enough to get them to the next level, but with Ilya Sorokin in goal and a first full year of Patrick Roy behind the bench, you don’t want to count them out.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Last season: 38-32-12, +5, fifth in the Metro.
Their offseason in six words: Guess Sid’s new AAV. You’re correct.
Why they’re here: With Sidney Crosby locked in for another three years, the Penguins are very clearly going for it. Whether “it” is another championship or just a playoff appearance depends on how much optimism you can summon, and I can’t summon anywhere close to enough to move them up to the contender list. Either way, the rebuild is on hold, so this feels like the only spot for them.
Detroit Red Wings
Last season: 41-32-9, +2, fifth in Atlantic, missed playoffs on tie-breaker.
Their offseason in six words: Tarasenko in, Perron out, kids extended.
Why they’re here: Because they’ve pretty much always been here, ever since Steve Yzerman arrived and started the world’s slowest rebuild. That’s not exactly a compliment, but it’s worth noting the Wings do keep shuffling forward, which is better than some other rebuilds we’ve seen over the years. Last year they came as close to the playoffs as you can without actually making it, so another few baby steps should get them in… assuming they don’t get leap-frogged by someone who’s moving quicker.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Last season: 46-26-10, +37, you’ll never guess what happened in the first round of the playoffs.
Their offseason in six words: Berube and Tanev arrive, core remains.
Why they’re here: Because after yet another offseason of tinkering around the edges, the Leafs are firmly in the “believe it when we see it” zone in terms of actual Cup contention. Chris Tanev should fit well, at least early on, and maybe a new coach can change the culture. But this still looks a lot like the 2023-24 team that had about 100 points and lost as a road team in round one, and these days that’s closer to the middle than real contention.
Minnesota Wild
Last season: 39-34-9, -12, sixth in the Central.
Their offseason in six words: Barely anything, except for Faber extension.
Why they’re here: They are the Minnesota Wild.
Winnipeg Jets
Last season: 52-24-6, +61, lost in the first round.
Their offseason in six words: Arguably the worst in the league.
Why they’re here: Because I need eight teams in each division, and sometimes that means squeezing in a team that I’m not sure fits. The Jets are the best team in this group by a decent margin, at least in terms of last year’s regular-season record. But that team made an embarrassingly easy exit from the playoffs, and this year’s version seems like they’ll take a step back. Betting against Connor Hellebuyck is rarely smart, but unless he’s playing at a Vezina level again this year, I think the Jets take a step or two back.
The Contenders Division
These are the eight teams with the strongest Cup case heading into the year. Maybe worth noting: There’s not as much year-to-year turnover as I would have expected, with six of last year’s teams back this time.
Colorado Avalanche
Last season: 50-25-7, +50, lost in the second round.
Their offseason in six words: Not much, but Landeskog possibly returning?
Why they’re here: Because we don’t need to overthink things. The Avs are a recent-ish Cup winner that have been good for years and are returning essentially the same lineup, maybe even eventually with the beloved captain returning. The Central is a tough path, but Colorado is clearly one of the league’s eight best teams.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Last season: 45-29-8, +21, lost in the first round.
Their offseason in six words: Guentzel in, Stamkos and Sergachev out.
Why they’re here: Because it’s fun to live dangerously. Not that dangerously, mind you, because we’re picking a recent Cup winner with a bunch of stars and the best coach in the league to do well. Still, it’s felt like the clock was ticking on the Lighting for a few years now, and in the last two seasons they haven’t made it to 100 points or won a round. It would be poetic for the window to finally slam shut the moment Steven Stamkos leaves, but there’s enough history here that I’d rather be a year too late on ruling them out than too soon.
Carolina Hurricanes
Last season: 52-23-7, +66, lost in the second round.
Their offseason in six words: New GM. Same coach. Diminished roster?
Why they’re here: I’ve seen a few smart people make the case that the Hurricanes will be worse, and I can see it. What I can’t quite see is them missing the playoffs in the Metro. Others can, and they’re completely not unconvincing. But for now, I think they’re safe enough that they can spend 60 games or so figuring out where the weaknesses are and then aggressively addressing them at the deadline.
Dallas Stars
Last season: 52-21-9, +62, lost in the conference final.
Their offseason in six words: Pavelski retires. And again. And again.
Why they’re here: Because even though I picked them to win the Cup last year and they let me down, I’m not the sort of person who holds a grudge. The Stars figure to go back and forth with the Avalanche for top spot in the Central, and probably meet them in the second round for the right to face the Oilers. In other words, a lot like last year, although Stars fans will be hoping for a better ending.
Vegas Golden Knights
Last season: 45-29-8, +20, lost in the first round.
Their offseason in six words: Even Marchessault gets no loyalty here.
Why they’re here: I went back and forth on the Knights, who really weren’t very good last year and enter the season with questions in goal and on the wing. Middle-of-the-pack certainly isn’t out of the question here. But with a full season of Tomáš Hertl to (hopefully) make up for a loss of forward depth, and the knowledge they’ll be aggressive during the season, I think they get to the postseason in solid shape to do some damage.
New York Rangers
Last season: 55-23-4, +52, won Presidents’ Trophy, lost in the conference final.
Their offseason in six words: Not the big changes we expected.
Why they’re here: Because even if you forecast a step back from last year, which you probably should, they’ve still got enough star power to waltz into the playoffs. The one wild card here is the Igor Shesterkin contract situation, and just how much of a distraction that turns into. But having your most important player in a show-me contract year isn’t the worst thing in the sports world.
Florida Panthers
Last season: 52-24-6, +67, won the Stanley Cup.
Their offseason in six words: Lost some guys, but not Reinhart.
Why they’re here: In the last three years, they’ve won a Presidents’ Trophy, went to the final and then won it all. I think they might be good, you guys.
Edmonton Oilers
Last season: 49-27-6, +56, lost in the Stanley Cup final.
Their offseason in six words: Offer sheets, Bowman hired, cheap UFAs.
Why they’re here: Because while I’m sure Oilers fans are starting to get a little bit nervous over how unanimously everyone is picking Edmonton to dominate this year, I’m not enough of a contrarian to try to pretend it won’t happen. That doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to win it all, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they don’t at least wind up with home ice in a weak-ish Pacific. Yes, they’re my Cup pick, even as I won’t get any points for originality.
The Your-Guess-Is-As-Good-As-Mine Division
Here’s hoping you didn’t forget about this division and then get all excited when your team wasn’t in the bottom-feeders or the middle-of-the-pack groups. Ah, who am I kidding, I love when that happens.
Boston Bruins
Last season: 47-20-15, +42, lost in the second round.
Their offseason in six words: Roughly 64 million reasons to worry.
Why they’re here: They apparently enjoyed last year’s role as the league’s most confusing team so much that they figured they’d go for an encore based on goaltending drama. With Jeremy Swayman’s status still up in the air, it’s really impossible to project how the Bruins’ season will go. Swayman could sign tonight, join camp tomorrow and be ready to go early enough in the season to chase a Vezina. Or he could be out until December 1, and maybe even all season. That still feels exceedingly unlikely, but until this is put to bed, Boston is a question mark.
New Jersey Devils
Last season: 38-39-5, -17, seventh in the Metro.
Their offseason in six words: Goalie acquired, so ignore last year.
Why they’re here: Last season’s biggest disappointment is apparently right back on everyone’s list of contenders heading into this year. And sure, it makes sense. They have Jacob Markström now, Dougie Hamilton is healthy, Jack Hughes is another year into his prime… the Devils should be a lot better. But they need to be about 15 points better just to get into the playoff mix, and that’s a big gap. Are we sure they’re an elite team? OK, just checking, I guess I’ll go along with the crowd.
Los Angeles Kings
Last season: 44-27-11, +44, lost in the first round.
Their offseason in six words: PLD traded. Dreams do come true.
Why they’re here: Because I don’t have the guts to put a 99-point team in the bottom-feeder group, but I’m also not confident they can stay in contention. That was true even before the Drew Doughty injury, although that obviously doesn’t help. This just feels like a rebuilding team that’s stalled out in the mushy middle, and may have got worse over the summer. When the best-case scenario is the annual first-round door-kicking from the Oilers, I’m not sure where the optimism comes from.
Utah Hockey Club
Last season: They didn’t exist!
No but really, last season: 36-41-5, -20, seventh in the Central (as the Coyotes).
Their offseason in six words: We put a team where now?
Why they’re here: Because I have absolutely no idea how this will play out. The Coyotes did their best under tough circumstances at Mullett Arena, but it’s hard to really get a sense of how good this roster could be, especially with the blue line upgrades this summer. Mix in some cap space and an owner who presumably wouldn’t mind winning right away, and Utah still feels like a work in progress. Last year’s Coyotes are probably the floor, but I’m not sure how high the ceiling goes.
Buffalo Sabres
Last season: 39-37-6, +1, sixth in the Atlantic.
Their offseason in six words: It’s going so well, why change?
Why they’re here: Because after an offseason that saw them mostly stay the course, they’ll be about the same as last year, which is to say middle-of-the-pack. Unless Jesse is right about their goaltending being secretly great and the kids all take a stride forward and Lindy Ruff works his magic, in which case they’ll finally return to the playoffs. Unless the Sabres gonna Sabre, in which case they’ll fake us out with one early-season win streak and otherwise be terrible and we’ll all make fun of them. Unless it’s something else. But definitely one of those things.
St. Louis Blues
Last season: 44-33-6, -14, fifth in the Central.
Their offseason in six words: You like offer sheets? Here’s two.
Why they’re here: Even if we assume the hockey gods aren’t going to punish Doug Armstrong for committing the cardinal sin of actually trying to win using offer sheets, there are still enough questions here that it’s hard to know where to slot in the Blues. Armstrong is treating them like they’re a playoff team, and if Jordan Binnington is really good then maybe they are. Then again, Binnington was really good last year and it wasn’t quite enough, so what if he has an off year? (Casually ducks flying water bottle.) You’re right, that wouldn’t happen, forget I brought it up.
Nashville Predators
Last season: 47-30-5, +18, lost in the first round.
Their offseason in six words: Nice franchise icon. He’s ours now.
Why they’re here: They were already a 99-point team, which I had to double-check because I didn’t remember them being quite that good last year. But yep, they were just short of the century club before Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault arrived, so you’d think those additions put them in the running for the Central and maybe even a Cup. Then again, adding mid-30s UFAs hasn’t exactly been a recipe for success in the cap era, and last year’s Preds couldn’t even beat a playoff opponent that was down to its third-string goalie. I hope Nashville does well because teams that take big swings are fun, but you could imagine it all adding up to a letdown.
Vancouver Canucks
Last season: 50-23-9, +58, lost in the second round.
Their offseason in six words: Thatcher Demko prayer circles forming regularly.
Why they’re here: The Canucks were already going to be a tricky team after defying expectations for pretty much all of 2023-24. The regression predictions were already inevitable back when we thought they’d have healthy goaltending. With Demko out, this could be headed downhill. Then again, didn’t we all get tired of being wrong with doom-and-gloom calls about the Canucks last year?
(Top photos of Thatcher Demko and Pierre-Luc Dubois: Derek Cain and Richard T. Gagnon / Getty Images)
