After all the consternation, the meetings, the “communication” and the lack of offensive prowess, the Bears are still favored to be 4-2 at the Week 7 bye.
That would be satisfactory, right?
To get there, the Bears have to beat the Panthers and Jaguars, teams with a combined record of 1-7.
Dating to their win over Carolina last season, the Bears have won five in a row as favorites, including both of this year’s wins. They’ve covered four consecutive games as favorites. The Bears are 6-2 under coach Matt Eberflus when they’re giving points.
Good teams beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. The narrative about this team, and where it can go, can be as positive as it has been in a while if they can “take care of business.”
This is the NFL and it’s never that simple, but the Bears have quite the opportunity in front of them.
Now, on to your questions.
Should it concern us all in the development of Caleb that Flus routinely talks about the most important thing being to avoid turnovers? Shouldn’t his development also be about putting points on the board? I worry the defensive-minded coach would coach away his top-end potential by scaring him into being conservative. — Michael S.
Forgive the snark, but just because the Bears — like every team — prioritize protecting the football doesn’t mean they aren’t also focused on how Williams can push the ball downfield and score more points.
In the Bears’ two wins, they didn’t turn it over. It’s a pretty easy recipe and should be emphasized. That focal point also helps Williams prevent feeling like he has to put the whole team on his back.
Also, let’s not forget we’re less than two weeks removed from Williams throwing it 52 times. That wasn’t the best strategy, but it’s an example that every game is different, and sometimes the Bears will ask, and need, Williams to be aggressive. But, like the pick Williams threw in Indianapolis when he took a deep shot for fellow rookie Rome Odunze, part of the learning process is picking his spots.
“He’s got to have some wisdom there and discernment in terms of when he needs to make that throw,” Eberflus said after Week 3. “You never want to take away his aggressiveness, but he has to be really good with the football. That’s his No. 1 job as a quarterback.”
It’s a balance, to be sure, but I don’t think there’s any harm in constantly reminding Williams to “honor” the football, to use Eberflus’ term. Protecting the football will ultimately lead to more drives, more points and more wins.
Outside of the offense’s concerns, my next biggest worry is the pass rush. Regardless of how good Matthew Stafford can be, he had too much time and looked too comfortable in the pocket for my liking last Sunday. Can you provide some clarity for this unit and give your thoughts on what the Bears have said to address this area moving forward? — Jacob M.
The Bears did hit Stafford six times and sacked him three times. They blitzed him on 37.5 percent of his dropbacks, their highest rate of the season, per TruMedia. But Stafford is a veteran, and he had an EPA (expected points added) of 0.45 against pressure. Part of that is the blitzes didn’t get there in time on those big plays, as you alluded to. The pocket was too clean when Stafford hit those explosive throws in the middle of the zone, though cornerback Jaylon Johnson did say earlier in the week that the secondary needed to be better with its assignments on those plays.
Andrew Billings and Gervon Dexter have been two of the league’s best interior pass rushers, Darrell Taylor has been a nice find at edge. The Bears are 17th in sacks per pass, which is much better than last year’s 32nd-place finish.
If you’re looking for areas of improvement, Montez Sweat has only two QB hits. His impact has been much greater than the stat sheet — Pro Football Focus has him with 11 pressures, and he’s attracted several double-teams — but you’d like to see him build off his strip-sack of Stafford. Progress from Austin Booker, too, will help the pass rush.
Montez Sweat bulldozed two people for the strip sack 😤
📺: #LARvsCHI on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/oV15oNsq2G— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024
Do screens ever work for any team? I know they don’t work for the Bears, but they seem to be so common in the league and almost always a negative play. — Nate J.
I had my colleague Mike Sando put this question into TruMedia. Here are some of the findings:
• Only six teams had a positive EPA per play on wide receiver screens, a group that surprisingly includes the Bears. That’s thanks in large part to DJ Moore’s 8-yard gain on a screen on fourth-and-1 in Indianapolis.
• Williams has an 85.8 passer rating on wide receiver screens, which is in the middle of the league, along with his 4.6 yards per attempt. Only four teams have a passer rating above 100 on receiver screens.
• The Bears are 4-for-6 on running back screens for 54 yards with an EPA of 0.20, which is 16th in the league. Thirteen teams have a passer rating above 100 on screens to the halfback.
• The Bears are fourth in the NFL in total screen passes attempted (20). They’ve completed 18 for 107 yards and a passer rating of 89.0 but only 5.3 yards per attempt, 12th lowest in the NFL.
What did we learn? Screens are easy throws, but they don’t always lead to easy gains. The Bears aren’t as bad as it seems, but for a team using it as much as they are, they also haven’t been effective enough. The perimeter blocking has been a problem.
When everyone gets healthy, what do you see as the starting OL lineup? — Roman S.
Ryan Bates is eligible to begin practicing next week. With the Bears heading to London, followed by a bye week, that’s a tricky spot. Would they rather give him two more weeks? Or, if he’s ready to go, does he jump into the mix across the pond?
Whenever Bates can return, I’ll be curious to see if the Bears return to the center battle we saw in the spring between Bates and Coleman Shelton. Or, does Bates find his way onto the field at right guard over Matt Pryor? That might be a scenario if Doug Kramer shows he can be an option at center.
The Bears would obviously love to find five guys they can rely on weekly, and considering they sent a draft pick to Buffalo for Bates, they always intended he’d be part of that mix. Switching centers for a rookie QB, though, would be a challenge, especially when going from a lefty in Shelton to a right-handed center in Bates. If Pryor keeps playing well at right guard and Shelton can hold his own at center, then maybe that lineup is the best, with Bates as the top reserve. But that lineup needs to have more than one solid game together.
Can you explain why Khalil Herbert and Tyler Scott are not getting any run? Is it just pecking order or does Shane Waldron just not like them as players? Feel like they both have performed for the team and as a fan of both, it feels unfair. — Felix U.
I’m surprised Herbert has been used so seldom this season. He had zero snaps on offense Sunday for the first time since Week 2 of 2021, the second game of Herbert’s career. While I considered Herbert the No. 3 back and a potential trade candidate heading into the summer, he had a nice camp. It’s possible that his running style just doesn’t mesh with Waldron’s scheme, though as bad as the run game had been, one would think he’d get a few more chances. Fortunately for Herbert, he’s a valuable special teamer. Look for him to maybe get an opportunity to return a kickoff or two Sunday — Carolina is a big kick-and-cover team.
Another player who seemingly had a productive summer was Scott, who fell behind DeAndre Carter on the depth chart. Carter has the versatility to play multiple spots, and it also might be a scheme thing.
There’s a difference between a coach “not liking” a player and that player not being the best fit for the scheme, or a player not performing at a high enough level. Roschon Johnson’s ascension has kept Herbert sidelined, and that’s OK as long as Johnson is productive. There’s not a whole lot of room for Scott on offense when the top three are healthy.
It’s natural for a coordinator to favor players most familiar with his offense. We saw that early on with tight end Gerald Everett and running back Travis Homer, but that changed. I don’t view it as fair or unfair — the NFL is inherently unfair — but the Bears are going with the players they’re most comfortable with. If Johnson and D’Andre Swift keep running the ball well, and Moore, Odunze and Keenan Allen stay healthy, it won’t be as big of an issue to keep Scott and Herbert sidelined.
Bears-Panthers fun facts
• The Bears lead the all-time series 8-4, with a 6-1 record at home. It’s the Bears’ best winning percentage against an active NFL team (for those curious, they went 10-0-1 against the Brooklyn Tigers). Carolina traveled to Soldier Field last season, a 16-13 Bears win on “Thursday Night Football.”
• The Panthers’ lone win at Soldier Field came in the 2005 divisional round by the score of 29-21. Steve Smith had 12 catches for 218 yards and two touchdowns.
• Panthers quarterback Andy Dalton had a 3-3 record as the Bears’ quarterback in 2021. His only game action as an opponent at Soldier Field came in 2013 when the Bears beat the Bengals 24-21. Dalton threw two touchdowns and two picks.
• Kicker Eddy Piñeiro returns to Soldier Field. He was 2-for-3 in last year’s meeting. During the 2019 season with the Bears, Piñeiro made 23 of 28 field goal attempts.
Game picks: Bears (-4) vs. Panthers, noon CT on Fox
Kevin Fishbain: Bears 26, Panthers 19
(4-0 straight up, 0-4 against the spread)
These picks are for entertainment purposes only, but my inclination that the Bears will cover the spread might not be a good sign for the home team. However, the Bears defense, at all three levels, will be the best unit on the field. Dalton has been slinging it, but I expect Williams to stack another efficient week and start — gasp — adding some explosive plays to the repertoire.
Adam Jahns: Bears 24, Panthers 16
(3-1, 3-1)
This should feel similar to last week. The Dalton-led Panthers should move the ball. But the Bears defense won’t break, while Williams and company continue to find the end zone but don’t light up the scoreboard. Another efficient day for Williams doesn’t feel far-fetched. But this week, you can add two or three explosive plays through the air. That will be progress.
Dan Pompei: Bears 30, Panthers 20
(2-2, 0-4)
The Bears defense is humming, and if Waldron takes a similar approach against the Panthers that he took against the Rams, the Bears will put up some points. It could even be Caleb’s breakout game.
Jon Greenberg: Bears 27, Panthers 17
(3-1, 3-1)
A week ago, we were talking about the players calling a meeting with Waldron and it felt like the season was on a precipice. A win over the Rams calmed the waters. The Panthers are a needed visitor to keep the momentum going. My only question: How long will the Andy Dalton Bears highlight reel run?
Joe Person (Panthers beat writer): Panthers 24, Bears 20
I haven’t heard from Kevin since he hit me up for a Bears-Panthers prediction last year, when I correctly picked the Bears by three. And if the offenses were even semi-competent in that Thursday night game, I would have nailed the score, too. As for this year, the Panthers offense has looked markedly better under Dalton, who has beaten every team but three over his 14 seasons — Chicago, Dallas and Carolina. He checks off one of those Sunday.
(Top photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
