Playing longshots tends to give you rollercoaster type swings and that’s exactly what we have gone through on our Football Parlay Friday’s this season. Let’s take a look at the week-by-week results so far.
Week 1: -$10.82
Week 2: +$28.06
Week 3: -$-22.00
Week 4: -$22.00
Week 5: +$34.52
That should come as no surprise. When playing round-robin parlays, you certainly aren’t going to win every week (we are 7-48!) but despite the up-and-down nature of this series of bets so far, we have squeaked out a little bit of a profit so far. And it would be even more if North Carolina didn’t blow a 20-0 lead last week against Duke!
Season record: 7-48, +$7.76, +7.1% ROI
Give me a positive ROI at the end of the season and I’ll be more than happy. Give me a seven percent ROI and I’ll be ecstatic.
This week we are, again, going with all underdogs on the moneyline. We don’t have any double-digit underdogs so the payout isn’t going to be as large but that’s what the card dictates. There is a method to this madness. I’m not just throwing darts at the board and won’t be giving out a big payout parlay just for fun.
I think these five bets all have value — or close to it — according to my college football projection model and I am going to place them in a round-robin parlay. (You can find all of my Week 6 college football projections here.)
The bets:
- Syracuse moneyline (+185) at UNLV
- Missouri moneyline (+115) at Texas A&M
- Wake Forest moneyline (+155) at NC State
- Rutgers moneyline (+200) at Nebraska
- Arkansas State moneyline (+125) vs. South Alabama
A simple parlay would have all five of these bets together for odds of +10446. That means if you bet $1, you’ll win $104.46. This will be one part of our parlay, but sportsbooks have a feature called round robins that will automatically parlay different combinations.
On BetMGM’s interface, you’ll scroll down your bet slip to see that section. I’ll be selecting “Round Robin 2/5.” This selection parlays each bet with another bet, creating 10 two-game parlays (11 parlays total if you include the five-game parlay above). I’m going to be staking $2 on every bet in this process for a grand total of $22.
The round-robin parlays:
- Syracuse/Missouri/Wake Forest/Rutgers/Arkansas State (+10446) — $2 to win $208.94
- Syracuse/Missouri (+513) — $2 to win $10.26
- Syracuse/Wake Forest (+627) — $2 to win $12.54
- Syracuse/Rutgers (+755) — $2 to win $15.10
- Syracuse/Arkansas State (+541) — $2 to win $10.83
- Missouri/Wake Forest (+448) — $2 to win $8.97
- Missouri/Rutgers (+545) — $2 to win $10.90
- Missouri/Arkansas State (+384) — $2 to win $7.68
- Wake Forest/Rutgers (+665) — $2 to win $13.30
- Wake Forest/Arkansas State (+474) — $2 to win $9.48
- Rutgers/Arkansas State (+575) — $2 to win $11.50
(Photo of Athan Kaliakmanis: Ryan Hunt / Getty Images)
