Allow us to shock you — Manchester City do not lose often.
In fact, Pep Guardiola’s side suffered just 17 Premier League defeats in 152 games on their way to an unprecedented four successive English top-flight titles from 2020-21 to 2023-24. And they have begun the current campaign with six unbeaten league games.
But occasionally over the last four years, Guardiola and co have slipped up. On eight occasions, they have done so at the hands of teams outside the Premier League’s established ‘Big Six’ — Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur (and themselves).
Brentford claimed their scalp twice in the 2022-23 season, while Leicester City, Leeds United, Brighton & Hove Albion, Crystal Palace, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Aston Villa have also topped them, albeit Villa did it in a season in which they gatecrashed the Premier League’s top four.
So as City embark on a sequence of five successive league games against sides not in the ‘Big Six’ (starting with Fulham at home on Saturday), what can their upcoming opponents learn from their rare recent defeats?
Here is our non-‘Big-Six’ guide to beating Manchester City.
Low block works best
Few managers are brave or foolhardy enough to stand toe to toe with City in a game of expansive football and most of the success enjoyed by ‘lesser’ clubs has been achieved by defending deep and hitting Guardiola’s side on the break.
When Leeds won 2-1 at the Etihad Stadium in April 2021 in a game played behind closed doors due to the Covid-19 pandemic, they did so with 10 players for the whole second half after Liam Cooper was sent off for a high tackle on Gabriel Jesus late in the first half.
And for much of that second 45 minutes, boss Marcelo Bielsa effectively deployed a back six, which was comprised in a variety of ways, sometimes with midfielders, most notably Kalvin Phillips, becoming auxiliary centre-backs, but more often with wingers Raphinha and Helder Costa operating as wing-backs outside their conventional back four.
When Brentford won 2-1 at the Etihad Stadium in November 2022, manager Thomas Frank adopted a low-block approach, making just 216 passes in total and 97 ending in the final third, compared to 622 and 300 respectively for Guardiola’s side.
A map of Brentford’s average positions compared with City’s and some other statistics show the story of the game.
“The higher you press with the ability they have, the more they will exploit the space you have left,” said Brendan Rodgers, who was Leicester’s manager in September 2020 when they won 5-2 at City and frustrated midfielder Rodri.
“A team like Leicester comes here and plays with 11 guys behind the ball,” Rodri said. “I am young and try to learn every game, but games like this, where the opposition do nothing, you are a bit confused.”
But there have been exceptions to the rule, such as when Brighton beat 10-man City 3-2 at the Amex Stadium in May 2021 after the visitors had Joao Cancelo sent off after 10 minutes.
Graham Potter’s Brighton made around twice as many passes as their opponents (607 to 361) and almost three times as many in the final third (164 to 58) as City were forced to sit back and play the role of underdogs.
And Crystal Palace adopted a more aggressive approach in their 2-0 win at the Etihad five months later. Patrick Vieira’s side still worked from a disciplined shape behind the ball but used the energy of on-loan midfielder Conor Gallagher and other attacking players to press actively, as this example shows.
And Palace pushed high to win the ball (shown here) to start the move that brought their second goal, scored by Gallagher but crafted by James McArthur and Michael Olise.
Have a plan for City’s star men
When Wolves beat City 2-1 at Molineux in September 2023, manager Gary O’Neil abandoned the back four he had employed in his early weeks in charge in favour of a system based loosely around a 5-2-3 or 5-4-1 shape in a low block, but with several bespoke features.
Left-sided centre-back Toti was given licence to leave his position and man-mark Phil Foden, while central midfielder Joao Gomes was given the responsibility to move to the right and help free up wing-back Nelson Semedo to handle Jeremy Doku and allow Maximilian Kilman and Craig Dawson to double up on Erling Haaland.
And striker Matheus Cunha was detailed to screen midfield pivot Mateo Kovacic to ensure Wolves’ midfielders could maintain their defensive shape behind the ball.
In Brentford’s November 2022 win, they made a point of closing down Kevin De Bruyne quickly to cut off Haaland’s main supply line at source.
Be brave in a calculated way
In November 2022, Brentford were on course for an excellent point away from home with the score 1-1 entering the final minutes.
But manager Frank sensed a chance to win the game so, with three minutes remaining, he replaced midfielder Frank Onyeka with the more attack-minded Josh Dasilva.
“Thomas said, ‘Josh, come on, defend well, get out to the ball, but I want to win this game’,” Dasilva told The Athletic after the game.
“Thomas instilled an inner belief in us leading up to this game that we could come here and not just draw or get a point, but win.”
In Wolves’ win, Gomes’ extra work on the right and Semedo’s discipline was designed to allow Pedro Neto to stay high and give a constant outlet to relieve pressure and create counter-attacking potential.
It paid off as Neto offered some respite to his defenders and had a huge hand in Ruben Dias’ own goal that opened the scoring.
Go direct
The days of long-ball Premier League sides are pretty much dead, but most ‘smaller’ clubs who have success against City do so with a direct approach.
Trying to play through the Guardiola press is a thankless task, so most goals against them by ‘lesser’ sides come with the bare minimum number of passes between winning possession and shooting.
Brentford used the aerial prowess of Ben Mee for the assist and Ivan Toney for the finish for their opening goal and utilised a rapid break from a City corner to set up Toney for the winner.
Wolves’ opener came from winning possession high and Neto beating a full-back, while Brighton profited from a towering Adam Webster header from a right-wing cross in their 3-2 win.
And there are few more effective direct strikers in the history of the Premier League than Jamie Vardy.
Vardy, who is the 15th-highest goalscorer in Premier League history, has scored three hat-tricks in the competition — two of them have come against Guardiola’s City.
His first came in a 4-2 home win for Leicester in December 2016 and the second more recently in a 5-2 victory in September 2020.
The passing map from that latter game highlights how little Leicester played through midfield, instead targeting Vardy and powerful winger Harvey Barnes early.
Make the most of your luck
Whether it is a small slice of fortune like Wolves facing a City side with Rodri missing, or a bigger one like Brighton playing against 10 men for almost the entire game, it is important to capitalise to the maximum.
Brighton also had the fortune to meet a City side that had already clinched that season’s title in a game that saw the return of 8,000 home fans for the first time after the Covid lockdowns.
Brentford’s second win of the season over City came in the final league game of the campaign when the champions’ focus was on their upcoming FA Cup and Champions League finals.
And, according to Guardiola himself, Leicester benefited from facing City near the start of the season when Vardy ran riot.
“The 5-2 was in the early moments of the season,” Guardiola told a press conference last month. “Sometimes it can happen early on — you’ve come from holidays and sometimes you’re a little bit naive.”
So, in short, to beat City you need everything to work perfectly and sometimes have to rely on a slice of fortune.
But it can be done. Every dog has its day.
Additional reporting: Rob Tanner
Graphics: Mark Carey
