Michigan hasn’t played a road game yet, but there’s already a sense that time is running short.
The No. 10 Wolverines (4-1, 2-0 Big Ten) will be halfway through the regular season after Saturday’s game at Washington. Unless they play better than they did in the first five games, the rest of the schedule might not be kind. The Wolverines don’t have weeks to find answers to their problems — they have to find answers now.
“At this time of the year, things have got to happen faster,” offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell said, snapping his fingers for emphasis. “We’ve got to speed up the process and the urgency.”
Michigan has made tweaks in practice in hopes of accelerating the growth of quarterback Alex Orji, who has thrown for 118 yards in his first two starts. Campbell didn’t go into detail, but players mentioned doing more periods with the No. 1 offense against the No. 1 defense. Practice was also louder this week as Michigan piped in noise to simulate the environment at Husky Stadium.
The entire operation has to be tighter as Michigan prepares to go on the road for the first time this season.
“We haven’t finished the way we wanted to,” coach Sherrone Moore said. “It’s not a speech, it’s not something in the locker room. We just have to execute at a higher level.”
The matchup
Neither team had much to gain from looking back at their matchup from nine months ago in the national championship game. Washington coach Jedd Fisch said defensive coordinator Steve Belichick spent a little time studying the film, but the Huskies are more focused on what Michigan has done this year. The same is true on Michigan’s side, as Washington’s roster underwent a near-total overhaul since January.
“They are different,” Moore said. “Obviously it starts with the quarterback. Michael Penix was an elite, first-round draft pick quarterback. It’s different, but they’re still a good football team. They still can beat you through the air and on the ground and beat you with sound defense.”
He’s not Penix, but Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers is completing 75 percent of his passes and is the only Big Ten starting quarterback who has yet to throw an interception. The Huskies (3-2, 1-1) aren’t far from being 5-0 after losing to Washington State on a goal-line stand and losing 21-18 at Rutgers in a game they dominated statistically.
“We’ve had two heartbreaking losses,” said Fisch, who was hired at Washington after Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama. “Those losses maybe didn’t happen a year ago. I don’t know if it’s experience, I don’t know if it’s circumstances, I don’t know exactly what to point to.”
Beating Michigan in Washington’s first year in the Big Ten would be a signature achievement for Fisch. For Michigan, getting a win on the road would be a galvanizing moment that builds confidence for the second half of the season.
Three keys for Michigan
Figure out the second half. Michigan has been outscored 57-26 in the second halves of its past three games. That’s a surprising statistic for the Wolverines, who have been one of the best second-half teams in college football in recent years.
So what’s going on? Is it a lack of depth? A lack of focus? Or is Michigan struggling to find a counter-move when teams make second-half adjustments?
“It’s not a fitness thing or a focus thing,” offensive lineman Giovanni El-Hadi said. “We’ve got to just go through the plays and strain the whole way. We’ve got to do better, all of us.”
In both of Orji’s starts, the offense had early success on the ground but hit a lull in the second half. Michigan needs a plan to get the offense jump-started if that happens again.
Get back to playing complementary football. One component of Michigan’s success on defense in recent years was an offense that took care of the ball and chewed up clock with long, methodical drives. Too often this year, the defense has been put in tough situations thanks to turnovers, three-and-outs and miscues on special teams.
When Michigan has the ball, scoring drives and quick three-and-outs have been the two most common outcomes, with very little in between. It would be great to turn the three-and-outs into points, but even a first down or two could help with field position and give the defense a break.
“Getting the first first down is the most important thing on the drive,” Campbell said. “You don’t want to go three-and-out. When you do, it’s detrimental to the defense, detrimental to the punt team. You’re not playing complementary football.”
Contain Jonah Coleman. The running backs in this game, Coleman and Kalel Mullings, make their teams go. Coleman doesn’t have Mullings’ size, but he’s a compact runner at 5 feet 9 and 229 pounds who’s tough to bring down on first contact.
Coleman, who followed Fisch from Arizona, is fourth in the league in rushing, one spot behind Mullings, and averaged 9.3 yards per carry in a 148-yard performance against Rutgers. Michigan’s defense has defended twice as many passes as runs the past two weeks, in part because teams haven’t been able to run the ball consistently against Michigan’s defensive front. Michigan needs to keep up the stingy run defense and force Washington to move the ball in other ways.
CFP implications
Michigan is ranked No. 10, which means the Wolverines ought to be in the thick of the CFP race. But their recent games haven’t passed the CFP eye test, and The Athletic’s model agrees, giving Michigan a 9 percent chance to make the field.
It’s going to be hard for the Wolverines to remain viable as a CFP contender unless their passing game makes big strides in the next few weeks. But as long as they keep finding ways to win, they will be in position to benefit from the inevitable upsets like Kentucky’s win against Ole Miss last week.
At this point, any loss to a team other than Oregon or Ohio State would take Michigan out of the CFP conversation entirely. A win against Washington wouldn’t radically change the perception, but it would give the Wolverines a chance to keep moving up as other teams stumble.
Prediction
It’s hard to trust the Wolverines to win on the road based on what we saw in the first five games. Michigan was challenged in the fourth quarter of all four of its victories and won those games thanks to clutch plays like Will Johnson’s pick six against Fresno State and Mullings’ 63-yard run against USC. Those plays are harder to come by on the road.
The Wolverines could get some key players back after Johnson, edge rusher Josaiah Stewart and wide receiver Semaj Morgan missed the Minnesota game, though nothing’s certain until we see the pregame injury report. Even if the defense is close to full strength, asking that unit to make up for a one-dimensional offense is going catch up with Michigan eventually. This might be the week it happens.
Washington 21, Michigan 17
(Photo of Sherrone Moore: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
