As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare for a major shift, their offseason blueprint will soon follow suit.
After the 2024 season, the Cardinals launched their transition plan for next season and beyond, prioritizing upgrades to their player development system over their major-league roster. The organization was careful not to term this plan as a rebuild. Instead, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak described the process as a “reset.”
“There are some fundamental things we want to do differently in the organization,” Mozeliak told reporters last week. “Then, ultimately, as we continue to have success at the minor-league and player procurement level, then we can time it right to then try to invest at the major-league level.
“When we were at our best, we were producing a lot of talent from our system. That’s really where we want to get back to because we feel like that gives us our best chance for long-term success.”
Though the Cardinals are not tearing their roster down to the studs — nor do they need to — they are rebuilding, to a degree. They’d like to build around their core of young position-playing talent, players such as Masyn Winn, Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar, and hope to see turnaround seasons from Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman.
To do this, Mozeliak needs to create avenues for everyday playing time. The Cardinals aren’t tanking next year (Mozeliak believes next year’s core could surprise people), but they are conceding wins and competition to prioritize growth at the major-league and minor-league levels.
Mo on how prioritizing player development and investing in the minor leagues will affect the major league club: “Just at a very high level, yes, I would anticipate seeing payroll go down because of these investments.” pic.twitter.com/iMQMS7qQhF
— Bally Sports Midwest (@BallySportsMW) September 30, 2024
This does not mean the Cardinals won’t be active this winter. St. Louis figures to be one of baseball’s busiest clubs. It’s how it’s operating that will be different. Though Mozeliak will step down after the 2025 season, he will remain in charge of the club’s roster decisions next year, consulting with impending president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom when necessary.
The Cardinals won’t be perusing the free-agent market for star players or be looking to majorly upgrade the roster. Instead, St. Louis will aim to clear money off the books, meaning players with significant contracts next year could be on the trading block. The types of deals Mozeliak will make will also be different.
“The simplest way to look at it is when you go out and sign a player that has a draft pick connected to it, those are the sort of trade-offs we were willing to make,” Mozeliak said. “I think in the short term now, we won’t be making those types of trades. We will try to keep those draft picks, collect draft picks and really focus on investing in that infrastructure.”
“I don’t know what our roster is going to look like today,” Mozeliak added. “But I still felt like we were a competitive club this year. We struggled at times, there’s no doubt, but I still think our core of what we’re seeing here is exciting.”
In his final offseason as president of baseball operations, Mozeliak will be tasked with navigating it in a way he never has before. What will that look like and what’s fair to expect? Let’s break down some early offseason explanations.
What is the front office working on?
Major-league teams are prohibited from any transactions until five days after the World Series. Officially, eligible players become free agents immediately after the World Series ends. However, they aren’t permitted to sign with a new team for five days. This window allows teams an exclusive period to negotiate with their free agents before players explore the open market. The trade market also opens the day after the World Series ends, though most major trades don’t take place until after MLB’s annual general managers’ meetings in early November.
The Cardinals are focusing on the early stages of their player development overhaul. Bloom, who will take over for Mozeliak in 2026, is amid an extensive interview process to fill the position of former assistant general manager and director of player development Gary LaRocque, who retired after the season. Bloom’s responsibilities in 2025 are specifically catered to the minor leagues. He plans to hire an assistant general manager who oversees player development and procurement, then could hire a new farm director as a separate position. Bloom also plans to increase player development personnel across the board, ranging from on-field coordinating positions to jobs behind the scenes, including data analysts and modern technology specialists.
Manager Oli Marmol made a change to his coaching staff and cut ties with hitting coach Turner Ward. Assistant hitting coach Brandon Allen was retained, along with game-planning coach Packy Elkins. First-base coach Stubby Clapp had his contract renewed and will also return next year. Bench coach Daniel Descalso and pitching coach Dusty Blake are under contract through 2025. Third-base coach Pop Warner is under contract through 2026.
What roster decisions are on the horizon?
The Cardinals have three players set to be unrestricted free agents: Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew Kittredge and Matt Carpenter, though the club informed Goldschmidt privately at the end of the season that he would not be brought back next year. St. Louis also has three players with club options: Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Keynan Middleton. Gibson’s option is worth $12 million with a $1 million buyout. Lynn’s is worth $11 million, also with a $1 million buyout. Middleton, who missed the entire season after undergoing flexor repair surgery, has a $6 million option. All options must be exercised within five days of the World Series ending. If the Cardinals decline an option, that player becomes an unrestricted free agent.
It is unlikely the Cardinals will exercise Lynn’s and Gibson’s options, especially with the organization emphasizing its youthful core. Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz are under contract for next year, which hypothetically takes up two spaces in the rotation (unless one or both are traded). St. Louis would like to see more of Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy, and top pitching prospects Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews are also on the radar. Zack Thompson will have a rotation opportunity in spring training, as will Drew Rom, who missed all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery.
The Cardinals also have six players eligible for arbitration next year. Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan and Pallante are all first-time arbitration-eligible. JoJo Romero and John King are in their second years, and Ryan Helsley is in his final year of arbitration, meaning he will be a free agent after the 2025 season. Per MLB Trade Rumors’ projections, the total number of arbitration salaries is expected to be approximately $18.7 million. Helsley is set to make the most ($6.9 million), though he’ll almost surely beat that projection based on his All-Star season. Teams must tender arbitration contracts to eligible players by mid-November, though they do not have to agree on a salary until mid-January.
What will the trade market look like?
This is where the Cardinals figure to be the most active, or at least hope to be. In efforts to keep payroll down, St. Louis will be open to trading away players with heavy contracts. What complicates the matter is that many of these players — Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Mikolas — have full no-trade clauses. When asked about the futures of players such as Arenado and Gray, Mozeliak mentioned the no-trade clauses but also said conversations would need to be a “two-way street” when both parties discuss the future trajectory of the club.
“There are going to have to be some decisions made,” Mozeliak said. “But ultimately, some guys control their own fate because they have no-trade (clauses).”
Arenado has three years remaining on his eight-year, $260 million contract. He’ll be on the books for $21 million in 2025, $16 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027, with the remainder of his owed money coming in deferments or via the Colorado Rockies, who took on a portion of Arenado’s contracts when they traded him to St. Louis in 2021.
Gray’s contract is the opposite; the three-year, $75 million deal he signed before the 2024 season is heavily backloaded. The Cardinals paid Gray just $10 million in 2024, but they’ll owe him $25 million next year and $35 million in 2026, along with a $30 million club option for 2027.
Because of this, the Cardinals could be more inclined to move Gray — as long as he agrees to it. Gray signed with St. Louis under the premise he’d be on a contending team during his tenure. Obviously, the Cardinals’ plans for the next two seasons indicate that might not be the case.
As for Contreras, he’s through two years of a five-year, $87.5 million deal. His contract is steady, as he’ll make $18 million in each of the next two seasons before seeing a slight increase to $18.5 million in 2027. The Cardinals also have a club option worth $17.5 million for 2028. Finally, Mikolas has one year remaining on his contract, and he’s set to make just over $17.5 million next year. He might be difficult to trade, however, given his 5.35 ERA in 2024. Still, he made at least 32 starts for the third consecutive season, and there is considerable value when it comes to durability.
Other players who could be trade pieces are Matz and Helsley. Matz will make $12.5 million in the final year of his four-year, $44 million signing, but he does not have a no-trade clause, which allows for more flexibility from the organization. Helsley’s remarkable season — one that saw him lead the majors with 49 saves — likely means he’ll see a significant raise in arbitration. With the Cardinals focusing on player development next year, it doesn’t seem likely they’ll pay Helsley for a season in which contending will be on the back burner.
Mozeliak will take the rest of October to analyze which players he’d like to keep and which would be better served as trade pieces. He’ll likely refrain from a fire sale, but significant movement is expected.
“There are players that I still think have some value here from a leadership standpoint and also from a competitive standpoint,” he said. “That is something we’ll focus on.”
(Top photo: Jeff Curry / Imagn Images)
