When the Chicago Cubs signed Seiya Suzuki before the 2022 season, they believed he had the potential to be an impactful offensive talent. While managing the Milwaukee Brewers, Craig Counsell saw that talent as well and it was only reinforced in the spring, when he felt that Suzuki had a chance to be the best hitter in his lineup.
Suzuki wound up with the best season of his MLB career. But Counsell believes there could be another level.
“I think offensively there’s still more,” Counsell said near the end of the season. “I think he’s gotten to really long levels of consistency during the season; it’s just keeping it for the whole season. The little injury kind of set him back for a good portion after he came back. It feels like once Seiya gets going, there’s only a couple of outfielders you could put above him in terms of production. We just have to keep him in that place.”
By wRC+ (138), Suzuki finished 16th in baseball and seventh in the National League. Just five outfielders in all of baseball (Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Mookie Betts and Jurickson Profar) were ahead of Suzuki. With his offensive production alone, his five-year, $85 million deal is looking like a steal for team president Jed Hoyer and the Cubs.
What has stood out about Suzuki since he first arrived is that he hits the ball hard, he doesn’t chase and he rarely swings and misses. This season, his swing-and-miss actually dropped to the 49th percentile, but his hard-hit rate was in the 91st percentile with his chase rate in the 94th. That combination of skills is what scouts seek when looking for elite offensive talents. Suzuki had shown flashes of what he could do in his first two seasons but hadn’t put it all together. In 2024, he was an all-around threat.
“I think Seiya’s proven that he’s just a good, all-around hitter,” Counsell said. “I think he’s shown the ability to draw walks, hit for power, to get hits. What, .280 right now? That’s good. Hitting where he’s hitting, hits are RBIs a lot of times. That’s what he’s become consistent at.”
Seiya Suzuki has back-to-back 20-HR seasons! pic.twitter.com/bSF9qQsJ8Y
— MLB (@MLB) September 12, 2024
Suzuki led the Cubs in batting average (.283), tied with Ian Happ for team lead in ISO (.199) and had the third-highest walk rate (10.8 percent). Hoyer actually believed there were a couple of factors that led to his numbers not looking as good as they would have in previous seasons.
“I do think in general Wrigley suppressed offense this year and in general baseball’s offense was suppressed,” Hoyer said. “I think sometimes we have to re-adjust the numbers in our head. He was a top-10 OPS guy in our league and I just don’t think we think about it that way because the numbers aren’t .975, it’s a .850-.860 OPS.”
Wrigley had the second-lowest OPS (.653) in baseball behind Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. Suzuki had a .913 OPS away from Wrigley Field this season but despite so many struggling there, he still had a .766 OPS at home. The league average OPS was down 23 points from .734 last season to .711 in 2024, the third-lowest since the turn of the century.
Ultimately, those factors are out of Suzuki’s control, but what he’s trying to control is his health. In each of his three seasons in MLB, Suzuki has spent time on the injured list. This year was the second straight that he sustained an oblique injury. As Counsell noted, the first few weeks after returning from the IL were the only time he hit an extended slump. This is why avoiding the IL will be a priority.
“This year I didn’t have too many long slumps. I was pretty consistent,” Suzuki said through interpreter Edwin Stanberry. “I do think if I didn’t get hurt, my numbers could’ve been better. I do know all the areas I need to work on to prevent those injuries. Moving forward to next year that’s what I want to work on.”
Suzuki has emerged as the best offensive player in the Cubs’ lineup. In an ideal situation for the Cubs, he’d either take another step forward in 2025 or they’d add a better bat in the lineup. A best-case scenario would be both occurring.
What’s clear is that when he’s healthy and on the field, Suzuki has turned himself into perhaps one of the more underrated but still feared bats in all of baseball.
(Photo of Seiya Suzuki: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
