Welcome back for another season of fantasy football speculation, using our patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then for all the last-minute managers on-the-go, I’m adding a new section — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
As I started gathering obscure data, I realized something. The shallow nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats, so please enjoy the visuals courtesy of Trumedia. In searching for a fantasy quarterback of course we need volume but also the willingness to push the ball downfield — so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth’s established, it’s on to charting EPA/Attempt and NextGen stats’ expected completion rate to complete the picture by mixing in good play and efficiency. (images below)
Before you go digging through my speculative bargain bin, make sure Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield are no longer available. The QB charts feature our usual suspects, with the exception of a major move by Trevor Lawrence. I want to go on record as saying I think Lawrence is the answer… just not yet. Given the availability of decent weekly streaming options, there’s no need to run up against the Jaguars’ upcoming three-game gauntlet: @ CHI, vs NE, vs GB. I keep going back to the well with Daniel Jones. He’s a Top 12 QB over the past month, and that’s without running hot on touchdowns. The appeal to Jones is he can fall into the end zone twice on a bad day, so if he’s actually throwing the ball, it’s a no-brainer. Toss in a chance to stream against a bottom-three Bengals defense and you can see why the jump at Trevor Lawrence feels premature.
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of weekly waivers, I won’t repeat the usual suspects — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure popular adds Ty Chandler, Kareem Hunt, Tank Bigsby, Bucky Irving, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. have a home before you go deep-league dumpster diving. Last year, I proved success by pivoting away from the lowest hanging fruit in total touches. Instead, I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ballcarriers showing top-tier efficiency in terms of fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize them as a speculative add.
4 Available RBs w/+40.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (+10 Touches Past 3 Games)
- Trey Benson, ARI — 84.6% Touch/Snap
- Ray Davis, BUF — 66.7% Touch/Snap
- Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 42.4% Touch/Snap
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 42.0% Touch/Snap
6 Available RBs w/+0.40 Fantasy Points Per Snap (+10 Touches Past 3 Games)
- Jeremy McNichols, WAS — 0.66 FPS/Snap
- Ray Davis, BUF — 0.49 FPS/Snap
- Ty Johnson, BUF — 0.46 FPS/Snap
- Trey Benson, ARI — 0.45 FPS/Snap
- Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 0.44 FPS/Snap
- Blake Corum, LAR — 0.40 FPS/Snap
Another suboptimal weekend for desperation RB streams if you happened to sleep through the first waiver run. That said, it’s par for the course at this stage, where it becomes more about identifying the crop of “next men up.” With RB committees as the new standard in the first place, you’ll be hard-pressed to find immediate production for Sunday. If I had to pick my favorite combination of payout now and later, it’s the Rams’ Blake Corum. All the rage in the leadup to drafts, helium escaped the balloon in a hurry as Corum quickly became one of the most dropped players in the league. Well, he reassumed the clear backup role in the Rams’ last tilt and looked great doing it. The Rams will be adding feature pieces back into the offense over the coming weeks, placing Corum immediately among the most valuable contingency backs down the stretch.
Wide Receivers
Like RBs, just make sure this week’s universal adds Dontayvion Wicks, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Jordan Whittington belong to a squad already. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — it’s precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So let’s see who has both run routes and earned an above average amount of looks while doing it.
10 Available WRs w/ +15 Routes Run Per Game, +16% Targets Per Route, +0.20 Fantasy Points Per Route (Past 3 Games)
- Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL — 41.0 Rte/Gm, 15.4% TPRR, 0.24 FPS/Rte
- Tyler Lockett, SEA — 40.3 Rte/Gm, 19.0% TPRR, 0.27 FPS/Rte
- Darius Slayton, NYG — 35.3 Rte/Gm, 17.0% TPRR, 0.34 FPS/Rte
- Tre Tucker, LV — 34.0 Rte/Gm, 19.6% TPRR, 0.42 FPS/Rte
- Demario Douglas, NE — 29.0 Rte/Gm, 24.1% TPRR, 0.36 FPS/Rte
- Michael Wilson, ARI — 28.7 Rte/Gm, 25.6% TPRR, 0.37 FPS/Rte
- Tyler Boyd, TEN — 24.0 Rte/Gm, 12.5% TPRR, 0.24 FPS/Rte
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey, DEN — 24.0 Rte/Gm, 15.3% TPRR, 0.23 FPS/Rte
- Ladd McConkey, LAC — 23.5 Rte/Gm, 27.7% TPRR, 0.53 FPS/Rte
- Jalen Coker, CAR — 15.5 Rte/Gm, 16.1% TPRR, 0.35 FPS/Rte
Most of these players popped in utilization after filling in for an injured player on the verge of returning. However, one wideout continually working toward a featured role is Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey. Widely available on waiver wires because of Los Angeles’ inefficacy on offense (LAC is yet to pass for 180 yards in a game). McConkey now leads the team in targets, catches, and yards. Bye weeks change the calculus and McConkey should not be available in half of leagues. The fantasy ceiling is limited for the time being, but it feels fair to assume growth through continuity to a point we have an every-week FLEX player on our hands come the double-digit weeks.
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top adds Tucker Kraft, Evan Engram and Cole Kmet aren’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism. This may very well wind up as an exercise in futility, but there’s no retreat and no surrender in these fantasy streets. I’ve since incorporated high-value red zone targets to complete the trifecta, but for now only three tight ends check all three boxes.
5 TEs w/+10% Team Target Share, +6.0 Air Yards Per Target, +1 End Zone Target
- Zach Ertz, WAS — 20.0% Team Tar, 7.4 AY/Tar, 1 EZ Tar
- Tyler Conklin, NYJ — 18.3% Team Tar, 7.0 AY/Tar, 2 EZ Tar
- Austin Hooper, NE — 10.5% Team Tar, 6.4 AY/Tar, 1 EZ Tar
- Johnny Mundt, MIN — 8.8% Team Tar, 6.1 AY/Tar, 1 EZ Tar
- Noah Gray, KC — 8.2% Team Tar, 6.3 AY/Tar, 1 EZ Tar
Top Stashes
- RB: Kimani Vidal, LAC — Gus Edwards missed practice and J.K. Dobbins may be losing steam.
- RB: Khalil Herbert, CHI — Herbert can’t sniff the field for Chicago and there are a couple of good teams in need of RB help.
- WR: Malachi Corley, NYJ — In case the Davante Adams trade rumors turn out to be just that.
- TE: T.J. Hockenson, MIN
Week 6 Sunday Streaming Service (>35% Rostered per Yahoo!)
- QB — Daniel Jones, NYG vs CIN
- RB — Justice Hill, BAL vs WAS
- RB — Aaron Shampklin, PIT @ LV
- WR — Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL vs CAR
- WR — Olamide Zaccheaus, WAS @ BAL
- TE — Theo Johnson, NYG vs CIN
- DST — Eagles vs CLE
(Top photo of Blake Corum: Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)
