It’s time to get back into the Group of 5 mailbag. I put out this request for mailbag questions a few weeks ago, but then, well, a bunch of news happened, several schools announced they’d change conferences and things kept spinning.
But now that some of the dust has settled and the realignment has slowed, it’s time to answer those questions. Unsurprisingly, you had a lot about realignment, many of them still relevant. So let’s get into it.
Now that the Pac and Mountain West are locked in at seven schools each, who are they calling next?
Adam J.
The Pac-12, unable to grab AAC schools or pull enough from the Mountain West, is expected to slow down before its next expansion attempt and begin talking with TV broadcast partners ahead of a 2026 relaunch, according to people briefed on the situation. After the big splash of adding the first four Mountain West programs to get to six, the league’s next couple of swings didn’t work out as expected.
A number of Pac fans got mad at me because I wrote, after the failure to get the AAC schools or UNLV, that they should now merge with the rest of the Mountain West at no cost. I wasn’t saying they should merge from the beginning. The Pac’s attempt to get AAC schools was a smart move. But coming up short there and suing to try to get out of more than $50 million in poaching fees just seems like a lot more trouble and money than a merger without exit/poaching fees, setting aside the fact that it still needs to find at least one more school and doesn’t have any great options left on the table.
The Pac-12 likely won’t get much more TV money no matter whom it adds next, so it might as well start the TV process and get actual numbers from broadcasters to take to the next potential targets. The initial pitch full of projections and speculation did not persuade the top remaining targets. Will having actual numbers and broadcasters to pitch to Memphis or whomever make a difference? It depends on what those numbers are. Having Gonzaga and its elite basketball program locked in should help, but AAC schools were extremely skeptical of all the uncertainty.
If the Pac-12 in future months is able to convince Memphis, Tulane or other AAC schools the second time around, then I’ll say it was a success. If it doesn’t get them and instead turns to some Conference USA or Sun Belt school(s) while still having to pay poaching fees to the Mountain West, then maybe not. We’ll see.
As for the Mountain West, its schools continue to look at options. While they added UTEP, the sense at least a week ago was there wasn’t a ton of interest in New Mexico State, even as a rival for UTEP and New Mexico. Texas State is also off the table, and FCS Tarleton State is very unlikely. Hawaii becoming an all-sports member is possible. Grand Canyon could be a non-football option. North Dakota State would make the most sense among the Football Championship Subdivision options. The Bison have a winning history, a lot of fans and a budget comparable to the Group of 5 (which is not the case elsewhere in the FCS).
Like the Pac-12, the Mountain West is of the mindset that being smaller is better, so maybe that means getting to eight or nine total full members so as not to split the pie as much. The binding agreement signed by the Mountain West schools guarantees that individual schools’ TV revenue won’t drop below the current figure of around $3.5 million, per the document, and the conference would use other funds to make up for that if it does. With the schools it’s losing, the total pie is certainly going to be smaller.
But there’s also the possibility of football-only options like Toledo and Northern Illinois, and maybe more. Speaking of that…
Is NIU & Toledo going to MW realistic? The MAC has the worst TV deal, worst attended games probably due to MACtion and lower-caliber teams as evidenced by how many MAC teams are in that 100-134 ranking tier. From the outside, this looks like it’s NIU’s best chance to move into a better situation.
Steven L.
The tires are being kicked on that possibility. The question with every option is this: Does it bring more TV value for the Mountain West? Neither would get the Mountain West to eight full members as a football-only addition, but if they can increase the value of the TV deal through access to the Eastern and Central time zones, then it’s possible. The travel would obviously not be ideal, going from a bus league to flying for every conference game. There are some within the G5 who for years have wanted to build a football league of the best G5 teams and put the other sports in regional conferences. But is this that?
You can argue whether all that is worth the trouble for a slight TV value increase, but as we saw with the Pac-12 moves, the focus from a lot of schools right now is dropping dead weight and trying not be left behind in whatever the future holds.
Is there a real chance that we see the ultimate service academy scenario where Army and Navy play in the American championship game for a spot in the playoff, play the following week in the Army-Navy Game, and then play in round one of the playoff?
Colin L.
What could be more American than that? I don’t see the CFP scenario happening, but we’re almost halfway through the season and both are 5-0 overall, and Army is 4-0 in AAC play. Playing consecutive Army-Navy games is very much on the table. I wrote about it last week. So yeah, I’d have to say there is absolutely a real chance.
A reminder that the normally scheduled Army-Navy game will not impact the CFP because the final rankings will come out before the game in order to set the bracket for first-round matchups that take place the weekend after Army-Navy. So it’s possible Army and Navy could play for the AAC championship, the winner would get a CFP spot, the teams would play a second time a week later with only bragging rights and the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy on the line, and then the winner of the first game would play a CFP game a week after that.
That would be a wild and unexpected start to the 12-team CFP era.
Tulane has played a tough schedule to start the season, but they held their own against the Power 4 opponents they played. What do you think of their chances to win the AAC and potentially gain a playoff spot?
Maverick H.
Keep an eye on the Green Wave. Tulane looks really good right now and might be the best team in the AAC. Two early losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma knocked them out of mind for a lot of folks, but the Green Wave have beaten USF 45-10 and UAB 71-20 over the last two weeks. They close the regular season with games against Navy and Memphis. If they win out, I would certainly keep them in the CFP picture.
How does Southern Miss coach Will Hall still have a job? Is it money? Do they need to make a change prior to the transfer portal opening? Any details on why no changes or what the thinking is?
Joe B.
Whispers started going around the coach and agent community a few weeks ago that Southern Miss might soon make a change. Hall is 14-28 and 1-4 this year. A change hasn’t happened yet, and the Golden Eagles are 0-1 since then.
I do believe the uptick in players redshirting with the intention of entering the transfer portal before the fifth game has caused schools to wait on pulling the trigger earlier in the season. Just a few years ago, Clay Helton and Scott Frost were let go before October. That’s not going to happen anymore (except in cases of off-field issues like Pat Fitzgerald and Mel Tucker). Because firing a coach opens a 30-day window for players to hit the portal, schools need to make sure they won’t also lose the roster during a season.
Now that everyone has played at least five games, the door starts to open a bit more. But still, what benefit is there really to firing someone now compared to next month? The history of interim coaches turning the season around is limited. There aren’t many Ed Orgerons and Dabo Swinneys, especially if the administration doesn’t believe the next coach is on the staff. ADs can still do their due diligence and back-channel pursuits of their next target without firing someone in the middle of a season. That’s what athletic director Jeremy McClain has to weigh.
Hall took this program to a bowl two years ago and was recruiting well. I’m admittedly surprised the bottom fell back out so quickly, and the school has tried to give him as much time as reasonably possible. He’s in the final year of his contract, so it would appear to just be a matter of time.
Would love to see a weekly G5 Top Ten
Glenn O.
Here you go, pulled directly from my Athletic 134:
- Boise State
- Navy
- UNLV
- Memphis
- Tulane
- Liberty
- Northern Illinois
- Army
- ULM
- James Madison
(Photo: Lance King / Getty Images)
