It took all of 12 days to eliminate eight teams from MLB’s postseason, leaving us with as compelling a final four as the sport has seen in some time. It’s the first full season since 2018 in which the top seeds in both leagues have advanced to the League Championship Series — and yet the Mets have a chance to become the third consecutive No. 6 seed to win the National League pennant.
Two weeks ago, I found a World Series-winning historical analog for each team in the postseason — a team from the past that looked and played like every team in the playoff field, right through winning it all. Eight of those comps have failed. So at the start of the LCS, let’s examine the four remaining ones, examining what I wrote then and whether it’s held up to this point.
To make the comparisons, I looked at every World Series winner since divisions were instituted in 1969 and gauged how well they did compared to the league average that season in runs scored, runs allowed, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, strikeout rate and walk rate. Those are the RS+, RA+, HR+, etc. stats in the tables below, where 100 equals average and any number above 100 is that percentage better than average.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Historical comp: 1993 Blue Jays
| Team | Year | W | L | RD | RS+ | RA+ | OBP+ | SLG+ | HR+ | ERA+ | K%+ | BB%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles |
2024
|
98
|
64
|
156
|
118
|
104
|
107
|
112
|
128
|
99
|
101
|
99
|
 Toronto |
1993
|
95
|
67
|
105
|
114
|
100
|
105
|
108
|
110
|
103
|
108
|
86
|
How it started: You can start with the firepower in the order. In John Olerud, Paul Molitor and Roberto Alomar, Toronto had the top three finishers in the American League batting race, not to mention another Hall of Famer in Rickey Henderson. The Dodgers might best that trio, with Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman — all MVP winners.
That excellent offense made up for an average pitching staff for the Jays. Los Angeles will need to follow a similar blueprint, and it’s helped by hitting more home runs than Toronto did that season.
How it’s going: The Dodgers allowed 21 runs in their five-game Division Series victory over the Padres, just better than what the league-average team would do. And then you look and see that those 21 runs came in the first 20 offensive innings San Diego had — and zero came after that. It’s a strange way to arrive at league average, but it’s still pretty much on par with what we thought of the Dodgers staff coming in.
On the other side, that offense was indeed helped by the long ball. LA hit nine homers in the five games, including the two solo shots to account for all the scoring in the winner-take-all Game 5.
New York Mets
Historical Comp: 2006 Cardinals
| Team | Year | W | L | RD | RS+ | RA+ | OBP+ | SLG+ | HR+ | ERA+ | K%+ | BB%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New York |
2024
|
89
|
73
|
71
|
108
|
102
|
103
|
104
|
113
|
101
|
105
|
83
|
 St. Louis |
2006
|
83
|
78
|
19
|
100
|
103
|
100
|
100
|
102
|
98
|
93
|
103
|
How it started: Sure, a team every Mets fan wants to remember! If New York is going to make an unexpected run through the National League bracket, it will require the kind of surprise pitching performances that propelled St. Louis to a championship in 2006. Jeff Suppan was the NLCS MVP (over New York), and Jeff Weaver and Anthony Reyes were stars that autumn.
The Mets’ pitching staff has been solid but unspectacular, and they’ve been especially susceptible to free passes. But it’s not too hard to imagine Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and David Peterson stepping up and filling the roles of those St. Louis starters from ’06.
How it’s going: Yeah, so Manaea, Severino and Peterson have combined to pitch to a 2.67 ERA in the first two rounds of the postseason, and that doesn’t mention Jose Quintana’s 11 innings without allowing an earned run. In seven games, the Mets have received at least six innings from their starter four times. The other three teams remaining have done that five times combined (in 14 tries).
New York Yankees
Historical Comp: 1983 Orioles
| Team | Year | W | L | RD | RS+ | RA+ | OBP+ | SLG+ | HR+ | ERA+ | K%+ | BB%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New York |
2024
|
94
|
68
|
147
|
115
|
106
|
107
|
108
|
130
|
110
|
105
|
94
|
 Baltimore |
1983
|
98
|
64
|
147
|
114
|
107
|
105
|
108
|
133
|
109
|
94
|
112
|
How it started: Outside of their strikeout-to-walk ratios being out of whack, this might be the closest comparison on the board. Both teams finished with run differentials of +147. The Yankees scored 15 percent more than the league average, the ’83 Orioles 14 percent more. New York’s ERA+? 110. Baltimore’s? 109.
Both teams hit homers at clips at least 30 percent better than the league average. Something tells me the Yankees may lean on that more in October than the O’s did, though: Baltimore hit nine homers in nine postseason games.
How it’s going: It turns out the Yankees have yet to rely on their thump, hitting just three homers and scoring only 14 runs in their four-game ALDS triumph over the Royals. New York was led instead by a bullpen that tossed 15 2/3 scoreless innings against Kansas City.
To be fair, Baltimore’s pen in ’83 had also pitched a shutout through a four-game ALCS victory over the White Sox, though that was 10 1/3 innings from just two relievers: Tippy Martinez and Sammy Stewart.
Cleveland Guardians
Historical Comp: 1990 Reds
| Team | Year | W | L | RD | RS+ | RA+ | OBP+ | SLG+ | HR+ | ERA+ | K%+ | BB%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cleveland |
2024
|
92
|
69
|
87
|
100
|
112
|
98
|
99
|
102
|
114
|
105
|
99
|
 Cincinnati |
1990
|
91
|
71
|
96
|
100
|
113
|
100
|
104
|
98
|
118
|
113
|
97
|
How it started: There’s no “Nasty Boys” nickname for them yet, but the Guardians own as dominant a late-game relief corps as the league has seen in a while. Emmanuel Clase put the finishing touches on one of the best closer seasons in history, and Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Eli Morgan all also have ERAs under two.
The Reds rode Randy Myers, Norm Charlton and Rob Dibble to a surprising sweep of the powerhouse Oakland Athletics in the World Series. Cincinnati’s bullpen that postseason pitched 31 1/3 innings and allowed one — ONE! — earned run. That made up for a thoroughly average offense.
How it’s going: Subtract Clase from the mix, and so far, so good! That less heralded quartet of Smith, Gaddis, Herrin and Morgan combined to allow two earned runs in 11 1/3 innings against the Tigers. The closer Clase giving up nearly as many runs in one series as he did all season was the fly in the ointment, and it almost cost Cleveland the series.
It’s a reminder of just how historic that Reds relief corps was in 1990.
(Emmanuel Clase of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates with teammates after Game 5: Jason Miller / Getty Images)
