This Week in Mets: Outlining the keys to the Mets' NLCS showdown with the Dodgers

“Our friends show us what we can do; our enemies teach us what we must do.”
— Goethe

The day he was introduced as the new owner of the New York Mets, Steve Cohen provided a blueprint.

“I like what the Dodgers are doing,” Cohen said back in November 2020. “That’s one team that easily seems to make the mark in the type of places that I want to do the same.”

From that point forward, Cohen’s aspirations with the Mets could be summarized swiftly: to become the “East Coast Dodgers.” To spend his way into contention early while building the infrastructure behind it, the way Guggenheim Partners had when they bought the Dodgers (beating out a bid from Cohen) in 2012.

The Mets’ path toward emulating the Dodgers has been serpentine, and it often hasn’t headed in the proper direction. Under its current ownership, Los Angeles has had two heads of baseball operations and two managers in 13 seasons. The Mets, in just four seasons under Cohen, have had four heads of baseball ops and three managers.

But, with David Stearns and Carlos Mendoza now in those roles, New York looks as well positioned as it has since, well, it last played these Dodgers in the postseason in 2015, to be good for a good while.

And while these Mets have overhauled their perception, both nationally and within their fan base, with how they’ve played since, well, they last played these Dodgers this season in May, Mendoza is fond of reminding them of how little they’ve accomplished.

“Every team’s goal is to win the last game,” Mendoza said on the field in Queens last Wednesday. “Here we are celebrating another step, and we’ve just got to continue to enjoy it. That’s who we are. We take it one day at a time.”

The exposition

The Mets continued their surge, wiping out the division rival Phillies in four games in the NLDS. The Dodgers, perhaps surprisingly, came back from 2-1 down to knock off one of their chief rivals, the San Diego Padres, in five. In doing so, Los Angeles became the first division winner from the National League to win a postseason series since 2021.

The pitching possibles

Game 1: Sunday, 8:15 p.m.
RHP Kodai Senga (1-0, 3.38 ERA in the regular season) v. RHP Jack Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA)

Game 2: Monday, 4:08 p.m.
LHP Sean Manaea (12-6, 3.47) v. RHP Walker Buehler (1-6, 5.38)

Game 3: Wednesday, 8:08 p.m.
RHP Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91) v. TBA

Game 4: Thursday, TBA
LHP Jose Quintana (10-10, 3.75) v. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00)

Game 5, Friday, TBA
RHP Kodai Senga v. RHP Jack Flaherty

Game 6, Sunday, TBA
LHP Sean Manaea v. RHP Walker Buehler

Game 7, Monday, TBA
RHP Luis Severino v. TBA

The conflicts

Can the Mets’ lefties hold their own against the Dodgers lineup?

No team in baseball won more games started by a left-handed pitcher than the Mets with 54. No team in baseball won more games against a left-handed starter than the Dodgers with 36. That could be the crux of the series.

New York will start Sean Manaea twice and Jose Quintana once in a seven-game series. It is also likely to lean heavily on David Peterson for bulk innings behind Kodai Senga. That’s five games where the Mets will rely on a lefty to work through a Los Angeles order that hits southpaws better than any other in the sport.

José Quintana’s 2Ks in the 5th.

6Ks thru 5. pic.twitter.com/7wQ7JYO0cr

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 9, 2024

The good news is the Mets did just survive a similar gauntlet. While the Dodgers’ .795 OPS against lefties was tops in baseball, the Phillies’ .783 mark against them was third. The trio of Manaea, Quintana and Peterson combined to give up one earned run in 17 1/3 innings against Philadelphia. The key guys to look out for here, in addition to L.A.’s irreproachable top three in the order, are Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith and Andy Pages, who all perform much better against southpaws than against righties.

How long can L.A.’s bullpen do this?

The Dodgers entered their Division Series against the Padres at a clear pitching disadvantage. Their starters were not as good, they would not pitch as long, and their bullpen wasn’t as deep. And then they held San Diego scoreless for the final 24 innings of the series, with 16 of those frames picked up by the pen.

In total, that bullpen threw 25 2/3 innings against the Padres. It allowed six earned runs, all of which came in the final two innings of Game 2. If the Los Angeles bullpen pitches four more shutouts in this series, the Mets are in trouble.

The key for New York will be attacking the middle relief of the Dodgers. Look, it would continue a theme if the Mets mashed around the best relievers in an opposing pen: They beat Joe Jimenez and Raisel Iglesias to clinch a playoff berth, they beat Devin Williams to advance, and they brutalized the Phillies’ best relievers throughout the NLDS. (Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm combined to allow 12 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings). But the back-end trio of Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech and Blake Treinen is terrific; they combined to give up four hits in 11 1/3 scoreless innings in the Division Series. The Mets have a better shot to deliver blows against Ryan Brasier, Anthony Banda, Daniel Hudson and Landon Knack — the guys who will be responsible for bridging the gap from starter to Phillips and, in Game 3 at least, taking the ball from the jump.

The Mets’ main advantage over the Dodgers is the depth of competence in their starting rotation — that everyone they hand the ball to can keep them in a game into the late innings. They must press that advantage all series long.

How will the Mets handle Ohtani-Betts-Freeman?

The most precarious moment of the Mets’ Division Series win over Philadelphia came in Game 2 when their inability to handle Bryce Harper led to a Phillies comeback win. It was Harper whose homer brought Philly back into the game, and it was working around Harper that helped build rallies for the Phillies in the late innings.

The Dodgers have three guys that good. OK, maybe Freddie Freeman’s high ankle sprain compromises him enough to where he’s less of an MVP-caliber hitter for L.A. — though Mets fans know to underestimate Freeman at their own risk. But Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts are two of the five best hitters on the planet, and they’ll each bat four to five times per game. Likely, you won’t feel comfortable anytime a Mets starter faces that top of the order a third time. And there’s nobody in that bullpen right now that feels like a lockdown arm against quality like that.

Here’s that trio’s combined career OPS against New York’s likely NLCS pitchers:

That is … not comforting, especially for the starters. In the pen, Ryne Stanek and Tylor Megill have shown some promise against those three, and thus they might get that first big opportunity against that part of the order in the series.

(Stanek has held Ohtani and Betts to 1-for-7 marks, though Freeman has dinged him for a homer in three at-bats. While Freeman has six singles in 14 at-bats against Megill, he’s held Ohtani to 0-for-5 and Betts to 1-for-3. For what it’s worth, Ohtani is 0-for-4 with four strikeouts and a walk against Edwin Díaz.)

Recent series history

The Mets lost four of six to the Dodgers, including an infamous sweep at home late in May. You may remember the last of those games when Jorge López threw his glove into the stands, the club called a team meeting and everything changed.

Less recent series history

This will be the fourth time in their histories that the Mets and Dodgers have met in the postseason, with New York taking a pair of Division Series in 2006 and 2015 and Los Angeles claiming the pennant in the 1988 National League Championship Series. Your age defines which postseason loss stings a Mets fan the most, but the ’88 NLCS is high up in the conversation. They haven’t forgiven Mike Scioscia yet.

(Orel Hershiser bought some goodwill with his 1999 season in Queens.)

A note on the epigraph

I snagged this quote from David Mitchell’s “The Thousand Autumns of Jacob de Zoet,” so I don’t know which work of Goethe’s, if any, it appears in. That makes me skeptical of its legitimacy, as does its excessive pithiness. But hey, Goethe’s good — you know, if you’re cool with feeling sad. Read “Elective Affinities,” my favorite book named after a concept from chemistry.

Trivia time

Daniel Murphy started his historic stretch of homering in six consecutive postseason games in Game 4 of the 2015 NLDS against the Dodgers. Can you name the six pitchers Murphy homered against?

(I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)

(Photo of Carlos Mendoza and Sean Manaea: Elsa / Getty Images)