By Max Bultman, Matthew Fairburn and Julian McKenzie
For fans, the playoff droughts have gone on long enough in Buffalo, Detroit and Ottawa. But is this the season that any of these teams get it right?
Last week, Scott Wheeler and Dom Luszczyszyn placed all 32 NHL teams into different tiers of contending cycles. The Sabres, Red Wings and Senators each have similar present-day ratings as they arrive at a point where they should be able to show tangible progress from their rebuilds.
With this in mind, The Athletic’s beat writers for Buffalo, Detroit and Ottawa each made individual cases for why the teams they cover will make the postseason. But they also threw out caution about why these teams could miss the playoffs, what could happen if they’re due for yet another early summer and what has to go right to avoid further unpleasantness.
Buffalo Sabres
Why will the Sabres make the playoffs?
If the Sabres play a more consistent game under new coach Lindy Ruff, they could scrape together enough points to become a playoff team. The 1-3 start hasn’t been encouraging, but the Sabres are defending better as a group of five, playing a more physical style of hockey and creating plenty of scoring chances. If they’re going to make the playoffs, though, their best players need to rebound from disappointing 2023-24 seasons. That means Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch and Dylan Cozens need to produce like the top-end players they were in 2022-23. Without that, the Sabres will struggle to take the next step.
What could potentially hold them back from making the playoffs?
Their scoring. After scoring the third most goals in the NHL in 2022-23, the Sabres fell to 23rd in the league last season. The regression from some of their top performers played a role, but the power play was the most glaring issue. Through three games, the Sabres haven’t scored a single power-play goal on 11 tries with the man advantage. They’ve also only scored one goal in each of the three games they’ve played. Even if Ruff can get them playing with more structure and their defense improves, the Sabres’ ceiling will be limited if they can’t finish chances.
Who has to be the team’s best player for it to make the playoffs?
Rasmus Dahlin would be the easy answer since he makes $11 million per season and is the team’s captain. But Thompson might be more important to the team’s success. Thompson needs to be a star-level player up front because if he’s not, it’s not clear where that type of production could come from for Buffalo. Through three games, Thompson has one goal and no assists, but the chances have been there. Even if he doesn’t return to the 47-goal player he was in 2022-23, Thompson needs to be much closer to that to give this team a chance. They’re a different team when he’s playing well.
What’s next for this team if it doesn’t make the playoffs?
That’s a dark thing to think about considering the Sabres would then have gone 14 years without making the playoffs. Another missed postseason would mark five years without the playoffs for general manager Kevyn Adams. One would think that would lead to changes. The bigger question as far as the rest of the league is concerned is whether the Sabres would consider tweaking their young core. JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn, Bowen Byram, Ryan McLeod and Devon Levi are all restricted free agents after this season. Buffalo has the money to sign them all, but would the Sabres keep a core together that hasn’t won? This isn’t something Sabres fans want to be thinking about.
Detroit Red Wings
Why will the Red Wings make the playoffs?
The biggest source of optimism is how close they came last year, missing by just a tie-breaker. They didn’t make any clear improvements to the roster this offseason, but if they can get the right steps forward from young players like Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson, then they could be right back in that mix again — and be better prepared for it, too. Health will be key, as losing Dylan Larkin for a long stretch last March ultimately led to a total collapse. But, in theory, the right internal improvements have the chance to push the Red Wings over the hump.
What could potentially hold them back from making the playoffs?
The same big issue as last year: team defense. Detroit did very little to address that weakness this offseason. The Red Wings will have a full season of Edvinsson, which should make a difference in time but will come with some early lumps as he adjusts to the NHL. And they brought in a defensive forward in Tyler Motte who should help too, considering how offensively tilted most of Detroit’s forward corps is. But even still, it’s just not a group that has proven it can defend well consistently. That was the biggest problem last year, and it’s been an early concern once again. Combine that with a whole lot of uncertainty in goal, and there’s a fairly clear path to a step back this season.
Who has to be the team’s best player for it to make the playoffs?
There’s no one single answer, as they need many things to go right. Last season showed that Larkin is still their most important player, as an engine and driver. But those internal improvements do feel like the make-or-break factor in their season, so I’ll pivot a bit and go with Seider, who could elevate the entire team by taking the next step in his growth. It’s no secret Seider took the toughest minutes in the NHL last year and is expected to get a similar workload this year. If he can take the step from surviving those minutes to outright winning them, it would go a long way for Detroit.
What’s next for this team if it doesn’t make the playoffs?
The expectations do seem higher for the Red Wings this year, which adds some more stakes than in past seasons. The answer here, though, really depends on the “how.” If the Red Wings can’t improve their defense and it leads to significant regression, then it’s entirely possible they could decide to go another direction behind the bench to try and shake things up. But if they do miss, the roster will surely be a big reason why, and that will require some more intricate reshaping next offseason.
Ottawa Senators
Why will the Senators make the playoffs?
Making the playoffs would be quite the jump for a team that hasn’t finished higher than sixth in the Atlantic Division since its last playoff berth in 2017. But the Senators have assembled a handful of young talent worth building around in the eyes of GM Steve Staios. He spent the offseason adding playoff-tested players as well as a Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender in Linus Ullmark. The Senators may still need a few things to go their way — a hot start, consistent play and other teams above them falling off their perch. But if the top three scoring lines and defending take steps forward while Ullmark holds his end of the bargain, Ottawa could make noise and reach the postseason.
What could potentially hold them back from making the playoffs?
The forward core has some promise up and down the lineup. Their goaltending issue has been addressed. The Senators’ defense maybe could use one more solid piece to round out their pairings. But if the division’s four best teams (on paper) continue to be those best teams, it makes the Senators’ job much harder to make the postseason. Not to mention if any of their active pieces don’t take that progressive step forward necessary, that keeps him on the outside looking in.
Who has to be the team’s best player for it to make the playoffs?
There could be two answers to this question. We’ve recently made the case that Ullmark has already shown why it was worth the Senators going all-in on him. But maybe Tim Stützle has to be the guy to take the next step in his evolution and firmly leave no doubt that he is a franchise player. It means pulling off plays like he did in his season-opening game against the Panthers and returning to his 2022-23 form where he reached the 90-point plateau.
What’s next for this team if it doesn’t make the playoffs?
It may depend on where the Senators finish in the standings. If they remain in the basement, they must consider revamping their roster so it doesn’t suffer a repeat. If this season is closer to Detroit’s own from last year where they were in contention during the season’s final days, their tweaks needn’t be as drastic. But a quality addition would still be necessary. The Senators will have a handful of pending unrestricted free agents (Claude Giroux, Nick Cousins, Adam Gaudette and Travis Hamonic) to make decisions on. Brady Tkachuk is locked in through 2028, but some will look at his situation as his no-movement clause kicks in on July 1.
(Photo of Moritz Seider and Tage Thompson: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
