How did Week 6 shake up the potential 2025 NFL Draft order?
To get an update on where things stand, we turn to Austin Mock’s projections. Mock projects the score for every game and the final winning percentage for every team using his NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. The simulation then runs 100,000 times after each day of games to give us, in this case, our projected top 10 draft order, plus each team’s projected win total and playoff chances.
You can take a deeper dive into Mock’s playoff model here. The latest projected top 10 for April’s draft:
| Team | Projected record | Playoff chance |
|---|---|---|
 1. Carolina |
4-13
|
<1%
|
 2. New England |
4-13
|
<1%
|
 3. Cleveland |
5-12
|
2%
|
 4. Tennessee |
5-12
|
2%
|
 5. Las Vegas |
6-11
|
3%
|
 6. Jacksonville |
6-11
|
6%
|
 7. Arizona |
7-10
|
11%
|
 8. New York Giants |
7-10
|
8%
|
 9. New Orleans |
7-10
|
10%
|
 10. Indianapolis |
8-9
|
22%
|
A few thoughts on this week’s projections:
1. The Panthers and Patriots are separating (slightly) from the pack
There are six NFL teams currently sitting on just one win this season — the Panthers, Patriots, Browns and Jaguars are all 1-5; the Titans and Rams are 1-4. Our model is still fairly bullish on the Rams (17 percent playoff chance), but every other team mentioned there is expected to finish with six wins or fewer.
And it’s hard to argue with Carolina being in the No. 1 spot. After briefly showing signs of life following the Bryce Young-to-Andy Dalton switch at QB, the Panthers have lost three straight, and they’ve been outscored 74-30 in their last two. For the season, they hold the NFL’s worst point differential (-100), by a wide margin. They’re also the only team to have allowed 200 points.
2. Where would the QB run start?
This is the eternal draft question, no matter if the class looks like last year’s — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye went 1-2-3 — or like, say, the 2022 class, which produced just one first-round QB (Kenny Pickett, No. 20) and saved its best talent for Round 7 (Brock Purdy, No. 262).
This year’s quarterback group, which includes Carson Beck, Shedeur Sanders, Drew Allar and others, figures to fall somewhere in the middle. But what’s that mean for the draft itself? Tough to say, because a lot is going to hinge on whether or not Carolina already feels like it has to commit another top pick at the QB position, two years removed from selecting Young.
The block of teams currently sitting third, fourth and fifth, respectively, in our latest projections could be the real Round 1 pivot point. Cleveland needs a Deshaun Watson exit plan; Tennessee might be ready to bail on Will Levis; Las Vegas clearly will be viewed as a potential QB landing spot.
Would a top-five QB run be too hasty, given how uncertain the 2025 class appears?
3. The Saints are fading, but there’s hope
Prior to Week 5, our model had New Orleans projected to finish 9-8 with a 40 percent shot at the playoffs and a 25 percent shot at winning the NFC South. Now, the Saints’ playoff chances are down to 10 percent (and to 5 percent to win the division), and they’re projected to land at 7-10.
This could go either way for the Saints, though, because their upcoming schedule is rather manageable. After hosting the Broncos this Thursday night, New Orleans visits the Chargers and Panthers on back-to-back weekends before a three-game homestand against the Falcons, Browns and Rams. Even if the 3-2 Chargers and 4-2, NFC South-leading Falcons stay on the upswing, the Saints should have opportunities to flip their season again.
(Photo of Bryce Young and David Moore: Matt Kelley / Getty Images)
