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Tommy Heinsohn won Rookie of the Year in 1957, averaging 16.2 points and 9.8 rebounds. Pretty good, right? His rookie teammate, Bill Russell, averaged 14.7 points and 19.6 rebounds and somehow did not win the award. Hmm. 🤔🤔🤔
Season Previews
Did Orlando make #HeatCulture disappear?
We are previewing the 2024-25 season leading up to opening night on Oct. 22, going through each division and every major individual award. We’ve done the Atlantic and Central divisions, as well as the Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the Year awards so far.
For each team, I’ll make a bold prediction and offer a take on the over/under set by BetMGM. Five 🥶 emojis on the hot seat meter equals job security. Five 🔥 means “Update that resume.” Let’s preview the Southeast!
Best-case scenario? They clear 50 wins for the first time since 2011 and make the second round.
Worst-case scenario? The defense falls off, they still can’t shoot and they’re a Play-In team who gets bounced in the first round.
Confidence in the Magic: 💪💪💪💪
Best-case scenario? #HeatCulture is back, Jimmy Butler is destroying souls, and they have another surprisingly deep playoff run.
Worst-case scenario? A lot of last year’s issues, they end up as the No. 8 seed and there’s nothing they can do to get out of the first round against Boston.
Confidence in the Heat: 💪💪💪
Best-case scenario? They finally defend decently, the offense is unstoppable, and this team possibly sneaks into the top six in the East.
Worst-case scenario? They win 36 games, get ninth or 10th in the East, and don’t make the playoffs. It’s the Hawks’ Groundhog Day.
Confidence in the Hawks: 💪
Best-case scenario? New coach Charles Lee starts to change the culture, this team wins 30-35 games, and the Hornets are in prime position to challenge for the playoffs next season.
Worst-case scenario? LaMelo Ball hurts his ankle again, the Hornets revert to the Bobcats, and they don’t land a top-six pick in the draft.
Confidence in the Hornets: 💪💪
Best-case scenario? Alex Sarr is the goods, Bilal Coulibaly has a big second season, and the Wizards develop/progress but still end up with a top pick.
Worst-case scenario? They’re the Wizards, still.
Confidence in the Wizards: 🚫
Awards Predictions
Who will win Rookie of the Year?
It’s an extremely weak rookie class. Somebody will try to tell you it’s better than advertised. It’s not. We’re in a similar zone now to when Michael Carter-Williams (2014) or Mike Miller (2001) won Rookie of the Year, and their competition was Trey Burke and Marc Jackson (not that one), respectively. I am talking myself into Zach Edey more and more. Zaccharie Risacher is a bit intriguing. But we’re mostly just giving out this award because we have to.
It will be so bizarre with this award being sandwiched between the Victor Wembanyama–Chet Holmgren races and then whatever comes out of five or six top prospects vying for it next season. With that said, here are BetMGM’s favorites for this season’s Rookie of the Year award:
Favorite: Zach Edey (+450)
Threats: Reed Sheppard (+650), Zaccharie Risacher (+850), Alex Sarr (+900), Matas Buzelis (+900), Bub Carrington (+1000), Stephon Castle (+1100)
Dark horse: Cody Williams (+3000)
🔮 My prediction: Cody Williams. The Zach Edey Experience is starting to feel more promising, but Williams will have a great opportunity.
Parity Stinks!
The NBA should be just like Mortal Kombat
I am firmly on the record (and I will never change my opinion) that parity stinks. I think wanting parity in the NBA is a loser’s mentality. I don’t mean to insult anybody who believes parity is for the greater good, but I hate it. The NBA should be hard to win. I don’t like the idea of the NBA having a team that gets hot or has an easier path for competing for a title because the rules set it up that way.
On Monday, Mike Vorkunov looked at how parity led to this current version of the NBA, in which six different teams have won the last six championships. Yesterday, John Hollinger wondered aloud how much parity actually exists in the league and whether it will stick. That last part is particularly interesting to me, considering I want parity to be fired into the sun. John brings up an interesting point that in this era of parity, the Thunder and Celtics are favored heavily to win their respective conferences.
I flat-out love dynasties. I have a controversial opinion: Kevin Durant signing with the Warriors was awesome. Why? It forced a mutation in this sport. Teams had to get extremely aggressive to figure out how to take them down. And for all the whining about them ruining basketball, it lasted three years as they won two titles. Dynasties make the history of the NBA great. They are the pillars of each NBA era (except for this one), where there has been a hero built up who gets turned into an enemy to tear down.
The parity of today’s NBA almost has a battle royale feel to it. All 30 teams start in the wrestling ring at once and then we see who gets eliminated. I don’t want that. I want the NBA to be Mortal Kombat. When you first played Mortal Kombat, three things stood out:
- The blood. It was a thing because it had never been a thing (also Johnny Cage’s junk punch, like he was Draymond Green).
- The fatalities. They were so cool!
- The ladder you had to climb to win.
As you fought your way through the tournament of the game, it got harder and harder. The final boss, Shang Tsung, was so difficult that he could use anybody’s powers from the game. When you beat the four-armed freak, Goro, you felt accomplishment. When you took down Shang Tsung, you felt like a god. That’s how the NBA should operate (outside of Draymond Johnny Cage’ing everybody, of course). Winning the title should be an increasingly difficult ladder to climb. I hope we get another dynasty soon. Maybe it’s the Celtics or the Thunder.
Bounce Passes
John Hollinger has predicted the bottom of the East. You can absolutely guess who is 15th.
He also predicted the bottom of the West. Wait, what are the Clippers doing so low?!
Paul George hyperextended his knee, but it looks like he might be fine in a week.
Most-clicked in yesterday’s newsletter: An incredible read from Jason Quick on the modern sports fan dealing with legal sports betting.
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(Top photo: Fernando Medina / Getty Images )
