A few months into the Chicago Cubs’ season, Dansby Swanson’s offensive numbers were concerning. The Gold Glove shortstop could always be trusted to provide elite defense at a premium position. But on July 9, his 74 wRC+ was worse than all but six regulars in baseball. It was hardly the type of production a team would want from someone to whom it handed a seven-year, $177 million deal, regardless of the player’s defensive value.
That Swanson had turned 30 in February had to bring about some concern that his struggles weren’t just a slump, but perhaps a fall off the ledge as he entered the potential backside of his career. But his second-half surge should quell those concerns.
From July 10 to the end of the season, Swanson posted a 126 wRC+. Adding his glove into the equation, he was the 10th-most valuable player by FanGraphs WAR (3.1) in all of baseball. The improvements ensured that he’d have his third-best season by WAR (4.3) as he finished barely one-half win behind last season’s 4.9 mark.
“Whether it was mechanical or working through some physical things he wasn’t willing to let us in on, I think clearly he struggled early,” team president Jed Hoyer said nearing the end of the season. “But he’s been great. It’s close to an .800 OPS in the second half. I think he’s going to end up being a 4-win player. I’m proud of him that he’s fought through it.”
The underlying numbers were kind to Swanson as well. His strikeout rate barely changed (24.3 percent this season as opposed to 24.1 percent in 2023) and remains lower than his final three seasons in Atlanta. He posted his fourth season with a walk rate above 9 percent, something he’s accomplished both years in Chicago. He was not chasing more than usual, his expected stats lined up with last year’s results and his bat speed did not seem significantly diminished.
Baaang! Dansby Swanson for 3! 💥 pic.twitter.com/t6mDv8zVLs
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 17, 2024
Manager Craig Counsell wasn’t surprised by Swanson’s second-half performance and defended the first-half issues.
“Dansby had an injury this year and that kind of derailed him in late April,” Counsell said. “It derailed him for a while, there’s no question about it. So that’s just what happened to him this season. I think that hurt him offensively. He was not in a great spot physically.”
Swanson was hitting at right around a league-average rate when he injured his knee on a slide that likely occurred in a late-April series against the Houston Astros at Wrigley Field. Swanson, who hates taking time off, pushed to play through the issue not believing it was something that required him to sit. But his struggles mounted and he went on the shelf in early May for a minimum stay on the injured list — a break that probably could have lasted longer.
But not once when talking about his struggles throughout the summer did Swanson bring up the injury.
“He’s not gonna,” Counsell said. “That’s how he thinks about it. That’s why he’s a player that wants to be out there every day. He believes he has to be the best version of himself at every turn.”
Instead, Swanson talked about the work he was putting in between games and the sessions in the cage with the hitting coaches as he tried to find his direction at the plate. As he continued to work, he got healthier and eventually started to look more like his best self.
That the issue was likely a minor nagging injury has to be good news for the Cubs. Swanson is under contract for five more seasons and having their highest-paid player at one of the most critical positions suddenly be on the downside of the aging curve would have made things very difficult for the front office to navigate. Instead, the Cubs can breathe a sigh of relief and hope that his second-half offensive performance will carry into the next season.
One change Swanson said he made was that he focused less on pushing Hoyer and giving his input on how to build the team during the season. With Counsell and some new faces around, he wanted to take a step back and hone in on his play and being a clubhouse leader.
But with the offseason here, he does expect to share his point of view.
“I’m sure there’ll be a lot of collaboration and discussion and honest conversation about how to get better,” Swanson said. “Different ways to look at things and challenging one another. Challenging me to be a better player. Challenging me to be the second-half version than what I was in the first half. I’m very welcoming of that.”
If the Cubs want to compete, Swanson can’t be his first-half self for an extended period of time. Their May and June swoon was largely due to poor offensive performance. Though Swanson wasn’t the sole culprit, he was a big part of it. The seven, eight and nine holes in the lineup gave the team empty at-bats — from May 1 to July 9, those spots in the lineup had a 59 wRC+, the second-worst in baseball during that span. Swanson was usually batting seventh or eighth during that stretch.
Things turned when he, Miguel Amaya and Pete Crow-Armstrong went from hitting like pitchers to performing up to their true talent level at the plate. In a season where the Cubs seemed like their offense would never find a rhythm, they ended up 12th in runs scored and were third in baseball from July 1.
Of course, the Cubs can’t get fooled by their second-half performance and fail to improve the lineup. Adding firepower to the group is necessary. But Swanson’s turnaround felt real — and his struggles had a legitimate explanation as well. If the shortstop Hoyer decided to invest so much into can be more consistent in 2025, it should bode well for the team’s overall chances.
(Photo of Danbsy Swanson: Kyle Ross / Imagn Images)
