COLUMBUS, Ohio — At midseason, Ohio State seems to have found its quarterback, and the offensive line has been better than expected. But with the Buckeyes coming off a 32-31 loss at Oregon, of course there are questions, especially about the defense.
Still, the 5-1 record is what I expected. Winning at Oregon was never going to be easy, and now the Buckeyes have to go into the back half of the schedule with a sense of urgency in order to win the Big Ten title.
Let’s recap the first half of the season and also look ahead.
Biggest surprise: The offensive line
This time last year, I rated the offensive line as the Buckeyes’ biggest weakness, and it’s wild to think of it as a strength now, but it is.
Ohio State is averaging 208 rushing yards per game, and it’s not just because of the running backs. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has done a nice job scheming to the strength of the line, but it’s also a much better group in pass protection.
Ohio State is fourth nationally in pressure rate allowed at 18.2 percent, according to TruMedia, and has given up only two sacks all season.
Left tackle Josh Simmons was carted off against Oregon and is expected to miss the rest of the season. That’s a massive hit, as he had just two pressures in 306 passing snaps, no sacks and one penalty this season. Ohio State will have to find consistency in replacing him with Zen Michalski, who has given up two pressures in 55 pass-blocking snaps. But next to him, the Buckeyes have a lot of talent.
Left guard Donovan Jackson has been playing well. After missing the first two games, center Seth McLaughlin is playing like a potential All-American. Right guard Tegra Tshabola has given up the most pressures, with six, but is improved, and Josh Fryar has also improved, giving up just three pressures and one sack.
Together, Ohio State’s line can be physical at the point of attack but also use its athleticism to its advantage.
Notable stat: Yards before contact
A stat that speaks to the success of the offensive line is yards before contact. Running back TreVeyon Henderson leads the country in yards before contact, with 4.49, and Quinshon Judkins is seventh, averaging 3.66.
The line is pushing opponents off the ball consistently, and Henderson and Judkins mix patience with a sense of urgency to hit the hole when it’s there.
When you mix the growth of the offensive line and the improvement from Henderson and Judkins, you get one of the best rushing offenses in the country. This is the efficiency that coach Ryan Day has been looking for out of the running game.
Offensive MVP: Jeremiah Smith, wide receiver
This was an extremely tough decision. I thought about going with McLaughlin and either of the running backs and actually went with receiver Emeka Egbuka first because of his versatility. Then I had a change of heart. It’s Smith. It has to be Smith.
Egbuka has been fantastic as a blocker and is fourth in the Big Ten in yards after the catch, with 298. But Smith is just different.
He’s the most talented receiver on the team already, maybe in the country. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound receiver leads the team with 533 yards, is second in the Big Ten with seven receiving touchdowns, has a rushing touchdown and is 14th in the Big Ten with 184 yards after the catch.
More than his statistics, though, Smith has changed games with his big-play ability.
When the game was close against Michigan State, he made two one-handed receptions to extend Ohio State’s lead just before halftime.
He had the longest passing play against Oregon, a 38-yard contested catch that led to a red zone touchdown from Smith just four plays later.
He can change a game with one play — even an inaccurate throw can find its way into Smith’s hands. That’s why he got the nod here. Also, how many freshmen earn a spot on The Athletic’s midseason All-American list? Just one: Smith.
Defensive MVP: Caleb Downs, safety
I don’t think this is even a debate, although I could be convinced to listen to an argument about defensive tackle Ty Hamilton, because he’s been fantastic.
Watching Downs in the spring, you could see that the Alabama transfer was the best player on the defense already, and though his statistics aren’t otherworldly, he’s been the most impactful player.
There’s no way to quantify this, but the eye test tells me that Downs has to be one of the best open-field tackling safeties in the country. He has 25 tackles this year and has saved a few touchdowns for the Buckeyes, but he also used that ability to stop plays in the backfield. He has 5 1/2 tackles for a loss this season.
In coverage, he’s been outstanding as well, giving up just eight receptions on 11 targets, according to Pro Football Focus.
There seems to be so much more defensive coordinator Jim Knowles can do with Downs — we’ll see if he dials anything up after the bye week — but it’s been a no-brainer to say Downs has been the best player on the defense.
Biggest strength: Run game
I’m not sure I would’ve thought this in the offseason, but I believed Ohio State could take a step forward with Judkins and Henderson sharing the backfield. Still, I had questions about the offensive line, but all of those are gone.
Ohio State is only 22nd in rushing offense, but it’s eighth nationally in yards per carry, at 5.93. That stat probably stings for some of you who are still thinking about the loss to Oregon, because Ohio State ran the ball just 12 times in the second half. That decision was confusing, but it’s still the strength of this team.
Ohio State averaged 4.3 yards against Oregon. Much of that came on a 53-yard run by Henderson, but that’s still the bread and butter for Ohio State.
How the run game evolves without Simmons will be a concern, but Kelly has done more with less talent.
Biggest weakness: Explosive plays allowed
This was difficult because I really don’t know the weakness of this team. Some will say it’s the pass rush, but that’s an easy answer. Ohio State is 14th nationally in pressure rate and had the 20th highest pressure rate in the country the week it played Oregon, at 38.9 percent. There was some real miscommunication and scheme things wrong at Oregon, so I’m leaning toward explosive plays.
This, to me, brings the pass rush and secondary issues into one. Ohio State is 10th nationally in explosive play rate, at 8.7 percent, but the Oregon game and Michigan State game showed some flaws in the defense.
Michigan State had three passes go for over 25 yards. Ohio State had a season-worst explosive play rate of 15.4 percent against Oregon, giving up six passing plays over 25 yards. That’s a problem that comes from an inconsistent pass rush and a secondary that was out of place physically and with its eyes.
The good thing for Ohio State is that this is fixable. If it gets things fixed on the back end, everything will look better for the Buckeyes on defense.
Most important remaining game: Penn State
This will be one of the biggest games in State College in a long time. Ohio State and Penn State will likely meet as top-five teams on Nov. 2 with a lot on the line.
For Penn State, although its Playoff outlook looks good, it’s James Franklin’s chance to expel his Ohio State demons and prove the Nittany Lions are national championship contenders.
For Ohio State, it feels like a must-win game. If the Buckeyes lose, their chances to make the Big Ten title game drastically drop and are completely out of their control. And the Playoff picture gets cloudy. If Ohio State has two losses, both to the only Top 25 teams it played, a portion of the country would be arguing against Ohio State making the Playoff. If it wins out, finishing 10-2, it would likely make the Playoff, but it would be a first-round appearance, not a bye to the quarterfinal. That would be a massive disappointment for a team with this much talent.
Though the loss to Oregon didn’t end Ohio State’s season, it made the game at Penn State even more important. It’s the only time I’ll say the Penn State game is bigger than The Game at the end of the year. Ohio State has to win on Nov. 2.
Path to the Playoff
Ohio State’s path to the Playoff became a little different with the loss to Oregon, but it’s still fairly clear.
The Buckeyes have to win out for a shot at a first-round bye. A two-loss Ohio State team isn’t likely to get a Big Ten title game berth because I don’t see Oregon or Penn State losing twice this season. So Ohio State’s path to a bye is simple: finish 11-1, then win the rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten title game.
For hypotheticals, let’s assume Ohio State loses to Penn State and has two losses. Things get a little tighter but are not impossible for Ohio State.
There will likely be a batch of two-loss teams in the Playoff; it just depends on how the committee feels about Ohio State’s resume. If Ohio State loses to Penn State, it will need Indiana and Michigan to be ranked at the end of the schedule. A Nebraska win over Indiana this weekend, then a win over the Huskers at home next weekend would help, too.
Now, if Ohio State wins out and loses to Oregon in the Big Ten title game in another close game, Ohio State could sit as high as the No. 5 or 6 seed.
There’s so much to consider here, but it’s simple: Ohio State needs to win out and make all of this easy. If not, selection day could be a nervous one for the Buckeyes, for the third year in a row, depending on who they lose to.
Rest-of-season prediction: 11-1
The second half of the schedule isn’t easy, but fortunately for Ohio State, it gets Nebraska, Indiana and Michigan at home. Penn State is the biggest concern, but the Nittany Lions offense is inconsistent. The receivers aren’t great, so the explosive plays will probably be cut down, the defense isn’t as good as it was last year, and if USC can run for 189 yards against them, Ohio State can too. Now, some of the creativity new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has brought to Penn State will be a wrinkle, but Ohio State should handle Penn State similarly to the 2022 game. A close game into the fourth, but it pulls away late.
I also expect Ohio State to beat Oregon in the Big Ten title game and claim the No. 2 seed in the Playoff, behind Texas.
(Photo of Jeremiah Smith: Ben Lonergan / The Register-Guard / USA Today via Imagn Images)
