The usual complaint about the Arizona Fall League is that there isn’t enough good pitching, and that’s mostly true this year — the first three games I hit on my trip ended with scores of 19-9, 15-2, and 13-11. The ball was also flying just because we’re at a slight elevation out in Phoenix and it’s been hotter than usual this time of year, so I’ve seen a ridiculous number of home runs, including a few that looked like routine fly outs off the bat.
Here are some observations from the four games I’ve caught so far, bearing in mind that they are just observations, not full scouting reports and not definitive statements on what these players are or will be. I’ve still got more games to see this week as well, including Saturday’s triple-header at Goodyear featuring all six AFL teams.
(Note: Scouting grades are on a 20-80 scale)
Tre’ Morgan, Zyhir Hope shine; plus Reds, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mets and Giants notes
Rays first baseman Tre’ Morgan has been one of the standouts for me so far, showing excellent plate coverage and more power than I expected (with the caveat that even the batboys could homer out here). He’s hit good velocity and adjusted well after a strikeout on a slider from one right-hander, staying back in a later at-bat on a very similar pitch to flip a single out to center. He also had a 70 grade bat flip after homering on a fastball from a right-hander.
Ain’t it grand?@RaysBaseball prospect and @MLBDevelops alum Tre’ Morgan demolishes a first-pitch grand slam in the @MLBazFallLeague. pic.twitter.com/YJqplvtr9F
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) October 16, 2024
Dodgers outfielder Zyhir Hope, acquired in the trade that sent Michael Busch to the Cubs, demolished a hanging slider in the first at-bat I saw from him, pulling it out to right field at 111 mph. He’s gotten substantially stronger since high school, but still is a plus runner. Despite a reputation in high school for being unable to pick up pitch types, he had no issues in this one game with breaking stuff or good velocity.
The Reds sent several big leaguers here to rehab from injuries, including Connor Phillips, who was 96-99 with an above-average slider at 85-86 and absolutely no command.
Detroit catcher Josue Briceño has only played first base and DH in the AFL, so he might not even have brought his catcher’s mitt, but he brought his bat, with four hits in the two games I’ve seen, all hard-hit balls, including a homer off a fellow lefty.
Briceño and Toronto infielder Eddinson Paulino accounted for all of Scottsdale’s runs in the Wednesday night game, with Paulino also homering off a lefty. Paulino looks like he’s put on some good weight since I last saw him in 2023.
Mets shortstop Jett Williams has made some outstanding plays at shortstop, including one to his left where he ranged to the other side of second base and still got up to throw the runner out. Williams has taken some good at-bats, but he’s been overly aggressive with two strikes and is 0-for-7 in the last two games.
Fellow Mets prospect Drew Gilbert hasn’t looked good on either side of the ball and isn’t running out routine grounders, so either he’s hurt and is protecting something from further injury or he’s disinterested.
Giants infielder Bryce Eldridge has struggled both ways as well, and he might be exhausted after a long season that saw him play at four levels and rack up over 500 PA. He looks bad at first base and he’s had trouble with fastballs in the zone, middle and middle-up. He’s 19 and doesn’t need to be here after the season he had, where he had success in High A and Double A and got plenty of reps.
White Sox notes: Grant Taylor struggles with command, Colson Montgomery not moving well
White Sox right-handler Grant Taylor was a must-see for me on this trip, but the second-round pick from 2023 struggled in his start on Tuesday. Taylor missed his draft year at LSU due to Tommy John surgery, before which he was probably the most highly regarded pitcher in the Tigers’ rotation, even ahead of a transfer from Air Force named Paul Skenes. Taylor made a few starts this year in High A and was dominant before a lat injury ended his season.
In his start here at Peoria, he was 94-99 with a plus slider at 84-88, but had very poor command and was noticeably worse across the board his second time through the order. He didn’t have great feel for his changeup and became less aggressive when his team gave him a big lead to work with. His delivery gets him online to the plate and he should be able to repeat it, so the trouble with command was a surprise.
Colson Montgomery, who was the White Sox’ top prospect coming into the year but struggled in Triple A, still doesn’t look right, as he’s not moving that well — he looked like he was running in quicksand when he hit a grounder to short. He’s got a big hole on the inner third of the plate, where pitchers can attack him easily with velocity. Granted, only about one in every four pitchers out here can locate well enough, but I see a real need for the White Sox to try to retool Montgomery’s swing.
Right-handler Peyton Pallette was another White Sox draft pick coming off Tommy John surgery, going in the second round in 2022, but he’s disappointed so far in pro ball in command and in results, with a near-5 ERA in High A this season and too many walks.
He was 96-98 with a 55 slider on Wednesday, and I think the White Sox have some easy delivery changes they could make here, getting him more towards the center of the rubber (instead of on the extreme third-base side) so he doesn’t cut himself off and trying to get him to take a longer stride towards the plate, that would help his command and perhaps get him back some bite on the slider. He got crushed by right-handed batters this year, so it’s not like he’s getting some benefit from being all the way on the third-base side, which in theory should give him more deception against righties.
(Photo of Morgan: Norm Hall / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
