The injury to Liverpool’s Alisson (£5.5m) against Crystal Palace has caused ripples in Fantasy Premier League, with managers now searching for a suitable replacement.
With the Brazilian likely to be out for around six weeks, the obvious question is: who should you bring in instead?
But a less obvious question is also being asked: what is the best strategy when it comes to free transfers and goalkeepers?
An evolving strategy
Typically in FPL, outside of a wildcard period, transfers are only made in the goalkeeper position for significant injuries. Aside from that, it’s usually considered a waste of a transfer.
That’s because the points ceiling for goalkeepers across a Premier League season is typically lower than in other positions, so managers prioritise those positions which will bring them the most points.
There are traditional three main strategies when selecting goalkeepers at the start of the season or on wildcard:
- Premium = £5.5m set and forget
- Two = £4.5m rotating goalkeepers
- Cheap = £4.5m pick and their £4.0m backup
In the first instance, managers would spend a greater outlay in this position on one of the most expensive goalkeepers in the game. The only downside is that it uses a slot from a premium team.
The theory would be that you play this pick in every fixture and they should rack up a flurry of clean sheets throughout the season, generally with a ceiling of six points. There’s little motivation to change this pick — aside from a need to free up funds — since even the more challenging games can be cagey affairs, which in turn yield clean sheets.
In option two, it’s important to have a look at the upcoming fixtures to find two cheaper goalkeepers whose fixtures dovetail nicely or even a home/away pairing. The danger here is benching points and not getting the rotation right. I’ve had very little joy with this approach in my own FPL career, so it’s a strategy I avoid.
Scenario three is the cheapest proposition, but it needs to be carefully balanced to find a club where the backup comes in at the cheapest price. In this situation, managers should hope for save and bonus point accumulation to outweigh a lack of clean sheet potential at times.
The picks need to be carefully executed, as they can use two of a maximum of three potential slots from any given side, preventing a more exciting double-up in other positions.
However, goalkeeper strategies could be changing, with managers now able to accumulate up to five free transfers. That could encourage some managers to be consistent with their attacking picks and instead look to target good defensive fixture runs with goalkeeper transfers.
This is perhaps a more reasonable option for managers who are implementing option three and going with a cheap starting goalkeeper — perhaps without selecting a backup from that same club.
Look carefully ahead to fixture runs and aim to hop on and hop off potential clusters of clean sheets with goalkeeper transfers, if you’ve managed to bank at least three transfers.
Who to bring in instead of Alisson?
Nottingham Forest’s Matz Sels (£4.5m) has been in solid form, with two clean sheets this season and just six goals conceded, but he is also flagged as an injury concern.
Alisson’s understudy Caoimhin Kelleher (£4.4m) is an option as his replacement — he missed the win against Crystal Palace with illness, with third-pick Vitezslav Jaros (£4.0m) forced to deputise. However, Liverpool have a difficult run of fixtures in this spell, playing Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Aston Villa in their next four, before Alisson is expected to return.
If you wish to stay invested at this premium price point, David Raya (£5.6m) remains the natural replacement, despite conceding in his recent two home games against promoted teams Leicester City and Southampton.
Mark Flekken (£4.5m) was the go-to budget pick for those managers who played the wildcard ahead of FPL Gameweek 6 and that holds true for Gameweek 8. He’s still waiting for his first clean sheet of the season but leads the way for saves on 33, showcasing his varied routes to fantasy returns.
Brentford have great long-term fixtures until Gameweek 14, meaning that he isn’t just a short-term punt. His side has home games against Ipswich Town, Bournemouth and Leicester City during this time.
With Brentford midfielder Bryan Mbeumo (£7.5m) already a lock in most teams, picking Flekken’s backup Hakon Valdimarsson (£4.0m) could lead to inflexibility down the line.
Everton’s Jordan Pickford (£4.8m) is a potential budget option. He comes into this category following two price drops since the start of the season. Defensive injuries meant a terrible defensive start to the season for the Toffees, but they’ve since conceded just two goals in their last three games, with Pickford saving a penalty against Newcastle United last time out.
His backups come in at £4.0 million, but that could block a move to double up on attackers Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) and Dwight McNeil (£5.7m) who have both started the season strongly.
I’d also keep an eye on Fulham’s Bernd Leno (£5.0m), who has great underlying numbers. He has one clean sheet, conceding eight goals. Crucially, Fulham have conceded just nine big chances on their goal this season — the fewest of any team — ahead of Spurs, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest who have conceded 12 big chances.
Fulham’s offensive players remain popular in the game. So again, in this instance, I’d decline to bring backup Steven Benda (£4.0m) in alongside him on a wildcard.
(Top photo: Alisson after his injury against Palace; Alex Pantling via Getty Images)
