We finally got some better pitching out in the Arizona Fall League toward the end of my weeklong run in the desert, highlighted by the second outing from Philadelphia’s No. 1 prospect, right-hander Andrew Painter.
Painter had Tommy John surgery in the summer of 2023 and hadn’t appeared in a game of any sort since spring training of that year until he pitched on the first Saturday of the AFL season. He threw again on Friday, a two-inning outing that served not just as a proof of life but as a reminder of why he was at one point the top pitching prospect in all of baseball.
Painter was 96-98 with excellent carry on the pitch, reaching 21 inches of vertical break. He showed both a slider and curveball that each flashed plus but were both inconsistent. He threw one changeup at 91 mph with good tailing action but was probably firmer than he’d want.
What are you doing with your offseason?@Phillies top pitching prospect Andrew Painter (MLB No. 32) turned up the dial on his heater as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery in the @MLBazFallLeague: https://t.co/OUcPhg2bM8 pic.twitter.com/JttznF7JTQ
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) October 19, 2024
His delivery looked good with no real concerns about his ability to repeat it, and it looked like lower effort for that kind of velocity, not that that seems to mean a ton for guys staying healthy — Hunter Greene had about the most effortless 100 mph I’d ever seen, and he blew out, too — but I’d rather see less effort than more, at least. Painter will likely be on an innings limit of some sort next year given the two-year layoff, but the good news is he’s back to the potential No. 1 starter he was back in 2022 and now just has to build back up and stay off the IL.
Dodgers’ Swan an emerging arm
Eriq Swan is probably the biggest breakout pitcher so far in the AFL, as the Dodgers’ right-hander has shown two plus pitches with a great frame and delivery to be a starter. Swan, a fourth-round compensation pick in 2023 out of Middle Tennessee State, didn’t pitch after signing and only threw 28 1/3 unremarkable innings this year due to some non-arm injuries, walking 17 and posting a 5.72 ERA, mostly in Low A.
On Thursday night, he was 96-98 with at least a 55 slider (on the 20-80 scouting scale) at 86-89 and what I think was a distinct curveball at 83, striking out five of the nine batters he faced and allowing just one baserunner.
He’s 6-foot-6, 240 pounds, and the arm works very well to keep him a starter; the one thing I didn’t see was a good pitch for lefties, as his changeup was too firm at 90-91 and pin-straight. In his limited time pitching in the regular season, he actually walked more left-handed batters (seven) than he struck out (five), which at least lines up a little with what I saw. Given his inexperience, though, I’m definitely projecting him as a starter.
Yankees’ Lagrange flashes three intriguing pitches
Yankees right-hander Carlos Lagrange also missed most of 2024 due to injuries, throwing 21 innings (and walking 20!) between Low-A and the Florida Complex League. He’s also out here and recovered from a rough first outing where he walked four in 1 1/3 innings to throw two scoreless innings with just one walk and four punch-outs in his second appearance.
Lagrange was an easy 94-98 with four pitches, a slider at 81-84 that had some curveball shape, a sweeper at 89-90 (because he’s a Yankee), and a changeup at 86-90 that he really trusted and that is his best pitch. The fastball is a four-seamer and doesn’t have great life, although the velocity buys him some room for error if he can command it.
He does cut himself off in his landing and it’s not a very long stride for a 6-foot-7 guy, both possible contributors to the lack of command. The only hit he allowed was the result of some bad pitch selection — he’d gotten ahead of Colson Montgomery on a pair of changeups, then threw a slider that moved right into his bat path, and the left-handed hitting Montgomery didn’t miss. Lagrange is still just 21 and has barely pitched outside of the complex, so there’s a lot of time for him to get healthy and work on his breaking stuff and his command.
Other pitching notes
Phillies right-hander Griff McGarry completely lost the strike zone this year after a brutal 2023. This season, he walked 36 in 30 innings and was worse after missing a month with a lower back injury. He’s out here now to try to reset pretty much everything, and his second outing went better than his first, with one walk in two innings along with five strikeouts, throwing 62 percent of his pitches for strikes.
He was 92-96, below his typical velocity, with a slider, cutter, and changeup, showing tight spin on both of the breaking pitches, and that arsenal would be plenty for him to be an effective reliever if he’s got even 45 control. I’m guessing the velocity drop is a function of him trying to throw more strikes, rather than turning it up to 11 all the time. I’m hopeful it’ll help, as the delivery changes that the Phillies helped him make last offseason didn’t improve his results.
Diamondbacks lefty Yu-Min Lin wasn’t great in his outing this week, with a soft 89-93 mph fastball that works when he’s getting ahead in the count — but this week, he was behind hitters constantly. He does have a plus changeup at 79-82 with big tailing action and a decent curveball, enough to see the “crafty lefty” career path for him if he has the command and control for it. Lin fell behind nine of the 12 batters he faced at one point and threw just 57 percent of his pitches for strikes, so the one walk in three innings isn’t indicative of how he pitched.
Reds right-hander Luis Mey had a miserable regular season too, walking 43 in 55 innings between High A and Double A, so I don’t want to get too excited, but he was 96-99 with a fringy slider in his relief outing on Friday and did throw strikes. It’s straight relief with a fastball that looks like it’ll play.
(File photo of Painter: David J. Phillip / Associated Press)
