GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida head coach Billy Napier probably didn’t save his job just by drubbing Kentucky on Saturday.
But he did enough by winning a must-not-lose game to think that maybe, just maybe, there’s a viable path to a fourth season.
The Gators’ 48-20 home triumph was Florida’s best performance of Napier’s third season, if not his entire tenure. In 20 conference games, Napier’s defense only allowed fewer points once (last year against Vanderbilt). His offense has never amassed more yards per play (8.1) or scored more points against FBS competition. It was one of our first glimpses of the kind of complementary football Napier promised on Day 1.
“We’ve got to be that type of team, for sure,” Napier said.
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The details of the beatdown provide a dose of optimism that Napier can field that type of team in the future, if not this season. Injuries to veteran starters Graham Mertz and Montrell Johnson meant Florida had to start true freshmen at quarterback (DJ Lagway) and running back (Jadan Baugh) for the first time in program history. The duo sparked the Gators’ best offensive performance in years.
Kentucky entered with a top-10 scoring defense and hadn’t allowed more than 353 yards in a game all season. The Gators amassed 313 in the first half.
Lagway — the five-star recruit and Gatorade’s national high school player of the year — added two things Mertz lacked: dynamic running ability and elite arm talent.
Mertz had two carries of at least 13 yards all season. Lagway had two in the first quarter.
In 16 starts at Florida, Mertz had only five completions of at least 40 yards (none this season). Lagway had five Saturday. All of them set up scores (a field goal and four touchdowns). Include his performance against Samford, and Lagway has nine such deep balls in his two starts.
BOMBS AWAY 💣
DJ LAGWAY RAINBOWS 🌈 ONE TO ELIJHAH BADGER ANOTHER HUGE GAIN!!! pic.twitter.com/QSRgk30yAF
— InAllKindsOfWeather.com (@AllKindsWeather) October 20, 2024
Though Lagway’s performance was somewhat expected, Baugh’s wasn’t. The former four-star recruit didn’t find out he was starting until game day. Baugh merely joined Tim Tebow (2007 vs. South Carolina) and Trey Burton (2010 vs. Kentucky) as the only Gators to rush for five touchdowns in a game. It’s the type of performance he and Lagway have been envisioning.
“Ever since we got here, he’s been telling me this is going to be something we can do and we can change Florida back to what it was,” Baugh said.
Jadan Baugh ties the UF record for most rushing TD in a single game!! @1vibesjay
📺 SEC Network pic.twitter.com/ifTlzrERaH
— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) October 20, 2024
Maybe. But one win over the inconsistent, if not mediocre, 3-4 Wildcats isn’t enough to make any long-term proclamation.
Beating Kentucky is a baseline expectation at Florida. Or it used to be, at least; the Gators won 31 in a row before Mark Stoops snapped the streak in 2018. Stoops won his first two against Napier, too. No Florida coach has lost three in a row to Kentucky in more than 70 years (Bob Woodruff, 1948-51). Napier, by that measure, merely avoided ignominy Saturday.
Besides, the real tests are still ahead. The 4-3 Gators are off this week before beginning the daunting, season-ending stretch fans have been dreading for months: No. 5 Georgia in Jacksonville, at No. 1 Texas, home against No. 8 LSU and No. 18 Ole Miss and at rival Florida State.
Is it possible Napier can win two of them to salvage a bowl out of this season and do enough to earn a fourth year? Sure. He’s in this job because a thrown shoe four years ago against LSU caused the tenure of his predecessor, Dan Mullen, to unravel. It’s hard to rule anything out in this crazy sport. It helps that the Seminoles are awful and the Rebels lost at home to the Kentucky team Florida just crushed.
But it’s also risky to count on it. Lagway had a boom-or-bust stat line (7 of 14 for 259 yards, no touchdowns and an interception) that Stoops could hardly believe. It’s reasonable to think he’ll have a game or two with less boom and more bust. Though the defense has improved drastically since the first open date, anyone who watched Napier’s first two defenses can wonder if it’s sustainable.
Realistically, that all means Napier’s long-term prognosis is probably about the same today as it was Friday. He’s 15-17 overall at a premier program with a brutal schedule ahead and a recruiting class that sits 39th nationally and second-to-last in the SEC in the 247Sports composite. His resume isn’t good. His future might not be, either.
But instead of leaving to boos (again), Napier left to cheers from the remaining fans as he headed for the tunnel off the field just before midnight. If Napier heard them, he didn’t show it. He took a swig of Gatorade, kept his head down and turned his walk into a jog.
He has more work ahead.
(Photo of Billy Napier talking to quarterback DJ Lagway: Matt Pendleton / Imagn Images)
