What the Mets need to do to beat the Dodgers: Comeback keys

The task in front of the New York Mets is simple to state and incredibly complex to execute: Beat the Los Angeles Dodgers twice.

They have done it before, way back in April when they won the first two games of a series in Los Angeles (in games started by Sean Manaea and José Buttó). If they can do it now, they’ll play in the World Series for the first time since 2015 and complete the first comeback from down 3-1 in franchise history.

“We can beat them,” Edwin Díaz said after Friday’s Game 5 win. “We can beat them.”

OK, how?

Here are the three keys to New York pulling out wins the next two nights to claim a pennant.

Manaea needs to succeed in the strike zone

Let’s talk about Manaea using a stat titled “Called Strikes and Whiffs Percentage.” You should deduce from this title that the stat measures the percentage of pitches that are either called strikes or whiffs. (Whiffs are swings-and-misses, just in case.)

A league-average pitcher got a called strike or whiff on 28.5 percent of his pitches in 2024; for starters, that number was a little lower at 28.1 percent.

Through the first five games of the NLCS, Mets starters are getting a called strike or whiff on just 23.8 percent of pitches. They can’t get ahead or finish off the Dodgers in the strike zone, which is why they’ve walked the world.

The one exception to that trend so far was Manaea’s Game 2 start in Los Angeles, where he picked up 16 called strikes and 11 swings-and-misses in 87 pitches or 31 percent of the time. This probably makes sense to you because you remember the way he owned Shohei Ohtani in the strike zone in that game.

Called Strikes and Whiffs Percentage

Player	Season	NLCS
Kodai Senga	32.9%	10.0%
David Peterson	28.9%	24.4%
Sean Manaea	28.7%	31.0%
Jose Quintana	25.8%	22.9%
Luis Severino	25.7%	21.1%

Manaea can win in the strike zone because of how his sinker plays with his new arm angle. Since making that adjustment in late July, Manaea’s gotten more called strikes/whiffs with his fastball than anyone else in baseball. (On a percentage basis, however, he is behind two teammates — David Peterson and Tylor Megill.) Jose Quintana can’t win with his fastball in the strike zone against a team like the Dodgers; Manaea can and did in Game 2.

It’s obvious the Mets need a solid start from Manaea to win Game 6; they’re not equipped to win a bullpen battle with Los Angeles’ rested relief corps. But the Mets likely need an outstanding start from Manaea — as in, better and deeper than in Game 2 — to best set themselves up to win both Game 6 and Game 7. And to do that, Manaea will need to get ahead and finish hitters efficiently in the zone.

Can one more arm step up in the bullpen?

Why do the Mets likely need a better and deeper outing from Manaea in Game 6? Well, how are you feeling about the bullpen arms not named Ryne Stanek or Edwin Díaz right now?

And here’s the harsh truth: Those two might be available to work in both Game 6 and Game 7, but they’re not likely to be effective if they’re needed in both games. The Mets’ best chance to get that same kind of productivity from that pair is probably staying away from Stanek in Game 6 entirely and limiting Díaz to six outs across the two games.

Which leaves an enormous void for someone else to step up. The Mets had been hoping that would be Reed Garrett, but he’s tired himself over his past two outings, each eventually including a big home run by the No. 9 hitter. Phil Maton had been Díaz’s primary set-up man late in the regular season but has looked gassed since being asked to pitch four times in five days in Milwaukee and Atlanta. Tylor Megill and Buttó have each been hit hard in this series.

This may be the biggest question facing Carlos Mendoza over the next two nights. When he’s taking his starter out and can’t go to one of the two trustworthy arms in his pen, which option does he deem the least bad?

The Dodgers bullpen isn’t bulletproof

On the surface, the Dodgers going with a bullpen game on Sunday may put the matchup in the Mets’ favor, considering New York plans to start Manaea, its best pitcher. But it depends. If Los Angeles grabs an early lead and starts deploying its bevy of high-leverage arms, then that presents a challenge. The Mets must be able to hit the Dodgers’ top relievers to advance.

The Dodgers have succeeded in shielding their top relief pitchers from exposure to the Mets’ best hitters.

Los Angeles high-leverage relievers Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips and Daniel Hudson have all been used sparingly, seeing the Mets’ top of the order mostly just one full time through.

Of that group, only Treinen has matched up against Francisco Lindor twice. None of the other Mets’ top five batters — for this exercise, that’s Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos and Starling Marte — have seen one of those top four relievers more than once in the series.

Also, Lindor hasn’t even seen Phillips. Alonso and Marte haven’t seen Kopech or Hudson.

“They’ve got quality arms, and that’s part of what they do,” Mendoza said Saturday. “That’s what makes them a tough team because when you look at they’ve got five, six guys that they could use at any point in the game, high-leverage situations. It’s a challenge, but we’ll game plan. We’ve got good hitters.”

This is not to suggest that they can’t hit them just because they haven’t seen them much if at all. It’s just that it typically doesn’t make things any easier. Over in the ALCS, conversely, top relievers in that series have been exposed to the same batters multiple times and have allowed runs in big spots.

(Photo of Sean Manaea: Harry How / Getty Images)