Fantasy football Week 7 recap: With Mahomes, Richardson failing managers, add these 4 QBs

This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 7 games (usually looking ahead and ‘what does this mean?’). It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article and reviewed in greater detail at www.TheFootballScientist.com.

Note: The advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are in PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the end of the Sunday night games.

A few weeks ago, this article series provided advice on how to navigate the disaster that is tight end scoring in the 2024 season.

The scoring pace at quarterback this year is nowhere near as disastrous, yet the reality is many marquee quarterbacks are not performing up to expectations. To highlight just how bad this is, consider that the QB1 points per game (PPG) cutoff line in 12-team leagues is 17.0 points, and then look at this list of quarterbacks who are falling short of that level.

Most of these quarterbacks are rostered in 77-plus percent of leagues, and none have a roster rate lower than 37 percent. That means these players are either in starting lineups or are being relied upon as primary backups on many fantasy teams.

Fantasy draft season showed there is a ton of quality depth at this position. That depth is still here and many of those quality depth players are outplaying the quarterbacks on the chart. Some of these QBs are also available in a high percentage of leagues.

Here are four that would likely represent roster upgrades, listed in ascending order of their current roster availability.

Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers: 5.2% of rosters

Wilson had his first start of the 2024 season Sunday night, and all he did was lead all quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. To put his 24.86-point performance into perspective, a quarterback has posted 24-plus points on only 18 occasions this season.

A QB1 pace isn’t anomalous with the Steelers offense, as Justin Fields put up 18.89 PPG with this group before Wilson arrived. Pittsburgh also ranks seventh in offensive PPG since Week 3 with a 27.5-point pace, providing more evidence this platoon can support a high-scoring fantasy quarterback.

What makes Wilson’s case even more impressive is that he ranked third among Week 7 quarterbacks in vertical pass points (9.96), sixth in short pass points (8.6) and fifth in rush points (6.3).

The Steelers’ schedule strongly suggests a high-scoring passing pace can continue. Here are Pittsburgh’s remaining foes and their fantasy passing points-per-game allowed:

That’s a favorable schedule, and at least six of those games (Washington, Baltimore twice, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Kansas City) have opponents with a green rating in the shootout points category.

Add it up and Wilson has a visible path to QB1 potential. Place him high on your waiver priority list this week.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 16.1%

Nix started the season as one might expect for a rookie, posting 11.02 or fewer points in three of his first four games. That trajectory has changed. Nix has posted 19 or more fantasy points in three of his past five games and ranks 14th in QB points in that span.

The key to Nix’s success is rushing prowess. He has tallied 6.3 rushing PPG since Week 3, a pace that is only slightly behind Lamar Jackson (7.9), Jayden Daniels (7.2) and Jalen Hurts (7.0). Most of this production (4.06 PPG) has been on scramble plays, but Nix’s 2.24 PPG on planned rushes ranks seventh in that time frame. This indicates Sean Payton is using every method he can think of to get production out of Nix.

When a quarterback posts 6.3 rush PPG, he only needs 10.7 passing PPG to reach that magic 17-point level for QB1 status. For perspective, it only takes 168 yards and a touchdown to register 10.7 fantasy points. Nix is capable of that caliber of passing and thus should be rostered at least as a backup on many more teams than he currently is.

Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: 45.3%

Darnold’s 2024 season is an apt illustration of what can happen when a talented passer finally gets to a team with a great play caller and one of the best receivers in the NFL.

That combination has vaulted Darnold to a No. 13 ranking in QB PPG. What makes this number even more notable is that Darnold did it despite not having Jordan Addison in the lineup for two games. Addison still has yet to match his performances from a year ago, having tallied only three catches in every game he’s played in, so there is upside potential if Addison returns to his 2023 form when he was a mid- to low-tier WR2.

Darnold may also benefit from the return of T.J. Hockenson as early as Week 8. The Vikings have three straight green-rated TE coverage matchups in Weeks 8-10, a factor that could make Hockenson’s return even more productive.

That’s not the only favorable matchup element for Darnold and the Minnesota offense. The Vikings have four games in Weeks 10-16 versus teams that rank 23rd or lower in pass PPG allowed since Week 4 (Jacksonville, Arizona, Atlanta and Seattle). They also have six games versus teams with green-rated shootout points grades.

All of these elements point to Darnold being in contention for QB1 status for the rest of the 2024 season.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 48.1%

Few quarterbacks are as good as Goff at producing fantasy points through the air. He ranks fourth in vertical PPG this year (7.51) and tied for third in short PPG (9.67). The only thing holding Goff back from QB1 status is a 0.28 rush PPG pace that ranks 31st.

The Lions have plenty of remaining matchups where Goff will need to get maximum utility out of those aerial skills. All but three of Detroit’s games are against foes with green-rated shootout points grades. This list includes two games against both Green Bay and Chicago, plus matchups against Houston, Buffalo and San Francisco.

Those are the kinds of high-scoring matchups that fantasy managers want from a quarterback, and they will make Goff a highly sought-after starter or backup.

(Top photo of Russell Wilson: Joe Sargent/Getty Images)