Edmonton Oilers winger Zach Hyman scored a career high 54 goals in 2023-24.
Through six games this season, he has zero goals.
Hyman is 32 and has scored 117 times for the Oilers over his three seasons leading into this one, an average of 39 per season.
Six games is a small sample, but Hyman’s centre is the top hockey player in the world. Should fans be concerned?
Shots and chances
Hyman is a whirling dervish in the offensive zone. His total touches in a game rivals any Oilers player, and that’s with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl twirling their magic. Hyman is a first-shot scorer who drives to the net with abandon. His main skill is being relentless on every play. It’s inspiring for fans, exhausting for opponents.
During his 54-goal season, Hyman averaged 11.15 shots per 60 and enjoyed a fantastic 18.6 shooting percentage. Both totals are top 15 overall among NHL forwards who played a significant amount last season.
At five-on-five in 2023-24, he hit 10.31 shots per 60 and owned a 16.98 shooting percentage. Both are top 15 totals.
He averaged 9.81 high-danger chances per 60 across all game states in 2023-24. He is down this season but is posting over eight chances per 60. That should lead to a productive goal total by the end of the season.
Why is this happening?
Hyman’s success offensively combines the style points mentioned above and that McDavid is his centre.
When a player is slumping, we always look for three things: Injury, erosion from aging and a change in role.
Injury is not an issue.
Hyman is at an age when players often fade in the skill areas, but he was an impact scorer as recently as one year ago. Regression can be expected, but not a 54 to zero pace.
What about McDavid? Here’s a comparison between the two men season over season:
| Category | 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
|---|---|---|
|
Minutes-Game
|
12:15
|
13:43
|
|
Goals-60
|
4.96
|
2.19
|
|
Goal Share
|
67 pct
|
38 pct
|
|
Expected Goal Share
|
64 pct
|
67 pct
|
|
Shot Share
|
61 pct
|
59 pct
|
All numbers five-on-five
The biggest factor is the small sample, but even with that, it’s obvious this line is about to go supernova. The expected goal share this season suggests a cascade of goals for the line as early as Tuesday versus the Carolina Hurricanes.
Reasonable expectations
The slow start by Hyman this season could also be a market correction for the individual player.
His career trajectory as a scorer is unique.
Hyman’s career peak with the Toronto Maple Leafs was 21 goals.
He arrived in Edmonton at 29 and scored 27, 36 and then 54 goals in each of his Oilers seasons.
Experts quibble about the exact age for peak scoring in an individual career, but it’s absolutely closer to 25 than Hyman’s age in 2023-24 (31).
What can he reasonably be expected to score in 2024-25? In the summer, I estimated 35 goals based on age and competition for playing time on the No. 1 line.
The competition hasn’t made itself evident yet. Viktor Arvidsson has struggled to find his way on his new club, and most of Jeff Skinner’s time with McDavid has included Hyman on the other wing.
McDavid’s scoring
In that August piece, I wrote this about McDavid: “The predictions see McDavid falling from 1.74 pts-game a year ago to 1.67 this season. It’s a minimal change due mostly to less time on the power play. It’s also true that Edmonton’s captain will turn 28 in January, an age when mere mortals are leaving their peak seasons and beginning the long fade toward the end of their careers.”
McDavid is a special player, and betting against him delivering an exceptional season is a bad idea. He is reaching the point in his career where “peak” McDavid may have been reached. Is McDavid at the point in his career where he will have less impact on the scoresheet?
History informs us that truly great players fade slowly. Here’s a comparison of McDavid with Sidney Crosby in three-year intervals over their careers.
| Age | Sidney Crosby | Connor McDavid |
|---|---|---|
|
18-20
|
1.38
|
1.22
|
|
21-23
|
1.4
|
1.61
|
|
24-26
|
1.43
|
1.71
|
|
27-29
|
1.11
|
|
|
30-32
|
1.17
|
|
|
33-35
|
1.16
|
|
|
36
|
1.15
|
|
All numbers include scoring in all strengths
Crosby’s injury seasons were age 26-28, so it isn’t an ideal comparable but McDavid is so unique we’re limited to generational talents.
This look at McDavid is encouraging. His trajectory is still going up a decade into his NHL career.
The bell curve for elite talents traditionally has exceptional sustain, and then slowly erodes as the player ages. Based on this look at McDavid, fans should expect above average scoring for the rest of the decade and beyond. Whatever Hyman’s issues early this season, the captain is not a problem.
Hyman’s future
Expect goals.
Edmonton’s power play has been comedically bad this season, scoring just one goal in 28 minutes with the man advantage. Last year, the team scored 10.52 goals per 60 in the discipline and you can expect goals there in the coming days.
Bet on Hyman finding the range on the power play and at even strength, eventually reaching 30-plus goals in 2024-25.
Future seasons are a different story. The Oilers brought in Arvidsson (who is 31) over the summer to give right wing some competition. There is no one on the current depth chart (Connor Brown and Corey Perry also play right wing) who is well situated to replace Hyman.
The club also picked up young winger Matt Savoie over the summer, and he may well become Hyman’s replacement on McDavid’s line in the years to come.
When will that be? Savoie is just getting started on his pro career, and even if he pushes offensively this team is built for Stanley and a mid-season recall being inserted into a feature role is not part of the plan.
If Savoie replaces Hyman on a skill line, a reasonable estimate is 2026-27.
There will come a time when Hyman is playing in Edmonton, on a middle six line and scoring 20 goals a year.
This isn’t the season.
(Photo: Tim Heitman / Imagn Images)
