It’s the pitching, stupid. That idea applies to almost every team, each year, in any era of baseball. But it’s especially relevant for the Chicago Cubs at this moment.
Jed Hoyer’s front office will explore deals to upgrade at catcher and add more power to the lineup. The Cubs will react to Cody Bellinger’s opt-in or opt-out decision, tinker with the bullpen and gauge the value of their prospects. There are different ways to go from 83 wins to the 90-plus standard manager Craig Counsell demanded.
Adding a clear-cut starter is an obvious move. Part of the calculation is supply and demand. It’s more realistic to sign a good pitcher than to acquire an All-Star catcher or outbid the New York Yankees for Juan Soto. That investment would create different options for the bullpen and more depth at Triple-A Iowa. It’s an insurance policy against the young pitchers who spent most of last season on the injured list and cannot be counted on as part of next year’s Opening Day rotation.
The Cubs are also good at this. They have a type. They know what they’re looking for in that upper-middle class of free agents. Their process the past two offseasons yielded Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga, two consistent pitchers who have been solid additions to the rotation and the clubhouse. Those acquisitions offer a few clues.
“The one thing that stands out right away with both of those guys is just their pitch-ability,” Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said at Wrigley Field on the last day of the season. “Both of them throw a ton of strikes. Both of them limit walks. Both of them (have) shown the ability to navigate a lineup, throw multiple pitches for strikes, all the little things you want your starter to do. On top of that, they’re very similar in terms of personality, too. They’re natural leaders.
“If I’m analyzing and evaluating in-season routines, those two guys would be No. 1 and 2 on the list. They both take care of themselves. They’re both very diligent about what they do and how they go about doing it. They’re not afraid to talk to people about how they go about their business. There’s common themes there and common threads. The last piece of that, though, is just two guys who want to continue to get better.
“Any time you’re adding somebody new to your group, the big question is: We know what you can do, but what are you willing to continue to work on?”
Max Fried would fit that description as a consistent, high-level performer throughout his time with the Atlanta Braves. So would Nathan Eovaldi, assuming he declines his $20 million player option with the Texas Rangers for next season. Both pitchers also have World Series experience.
Fried, who will turn 31 this winter, played with Dansby Swanson in Atlanta and graduated from the same Southern California high school (Harvard-Westlake) that produced Pete Crow-Armstrong. The lefty is a three-time Gold Glove winner with a 1.164 career WHIP. He’s also coming off an All-Star season (3.25 ERA in 29 starts) with a team that has a track record of retaining its own talent.
Eovaldi, who will be 35 next season, would represent more of a short-term commitment. Eovaldi has a 9-3 record and a 3.05 ERA in 17 playoff appearances, earning World Series rings with the Rangers and Boston Red Sox. He led the American League in walk rate in 2021 and finished in the top 10 in that category again this year.
If the Cubs didn’t sign Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea or Luis Severino to a prove-it deal last winter, it seems doubtful that they would do a buy-high contract for any of those pitchers who helped push their teams into the National League Championship Series. The New York Mets could also extend one-year qualifying offers to Manaea (assuming he opts out of his contract) and Severino, adding draft-pick compensation into the model the Cubs use to evaluate the cost of potential deals.
If the Cubs believe their pitching infrastructure can draw out more, bounce-back candidates include Walker Buehler (who returned in time for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ playoff run) and Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber (who underwent Tommy John surgery in April). The Cubs could see something more in a swingman such as Nick Martinez, who can elect to become a free agent after a 4-WAR season with the Cincinnati Reds (10-7, 3.10 ERA in 142 1/3 innings).
In his career, Walker Buehler has thrown 4 Sweepers in with over 2 Feet of Horizontal Break.
And, they were ALL last night. 😳 pic.twitter.com/0LebWSEKfu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 17, 2024
Counsell would not make promises this far in advance, but Javier Assad’s body of work (3.40 ERA in 294 major-league innings) will likely put him in the starting five next season with Imanaga, Taillon and Justin Steele. When healthy, the organization’s raw pitching talent — a group that includes Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Jordan Wicks and Cade Horton — can be available out of the bullpen or when injuries arise. That leaves an open spot for the next free agent.
Halfway through a four-year, $68 million contract, Taillon has accounted for 57 starts and 319 2/3 innings. Taillon worked through the first-year nerves — his ERA was 6.90 at the beginning of July in 2023 — to post a 3.38 ERA in 45 games since that point. If Kyle Hendricks has pitched his last game in a Cubs uniform, Taillon’s knowledge, accessibility and work ethic will be even more important resources.
“Definitely proud of the workload,” Taillon said after his 28th and final start this year. “I’m definitely more comfortable here. I know my way around the locker room. I know the staff and stadium workers more. I know my route to the ballpark. All that stuff does matter.
“I’ve been the hurt guy before in my career. I’ve had two Tommy John surgeries and lots of stuff before that. Being available and being out there is a big deal for me. There were for sure games this year where maybe I didn’t feel 100 percent. And I was still proud of being able to go out there and give a good effort. I’ve made it a point that everything I do in my routine is to try to be healthy.
“This offseason, I definitely want to smartly find ways to gain some velocity back. (I’ll) show up to spring training ready to do my job, but also be a leader and lead by example. And hopefully impact some of the younger players that I know we have coming up.”
That presence will also come from Imanaga, who answered the questions that followed his decision to leave Japan and challenge himself at the sport’s highest level. His four-year, $53 million deal could extend to $80 million over five seasons, which would still be good value for an All-Star pitcher. The Cubs went 23-6 in his starts and 60-73 for the rest of their schedule.
“The greatness of Shota is that it’s not different,” Counsell said when asked how Imanaga had changed his spring training. “The genius in Shota this year is that he actually came here and simplified who he was. That’s hard to do when you come into a new place and think you have to be better. He didn’t have to be better. He actually made himself simpler.”
That almost sounds like a takeaway for a front office that will be under pressure to produce a playoff team next year. Spend more money. Trade some prospects. Strengthen a strong rotation in what turned out to be a very pitcher-friendly ballpark this year. Don’t overthink it.
(Top photo of Shota Imanaga: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
