Thank you for submitting your questions to our midseason mailbag. In case you missed the first edition, we discussed the dynamics of Jerry Jones and explored the trade potential of key defensive players. In this second edition, we’ll get into why the Dallas Cowboys are unlikely to make a head-coaching change midseason, what it would take for Mike McCarthy to return in 2025, whether there’s hope for the future and more. Let’s get to it!
Why did the Cowboys expect anything to be different this season without building the running game for offense, and not building a defense to stop the run, two areas of the team that have been screaming for change and upgrade for several seasons? — Nick C.
I believe the Cowboys had an overreliance on hope in both areas.
On defense, they hoped Mazi Smith would take a big step in his second year and DeMarvion Overshown’s return from an ACL injury would be as advertised. They also made a couple of changes: They added veteran linebacker Eric Kendricks to the middle of the defense and replaced defensive coordinator Dan Quinn with Mike Zimmer. The change at defensive coordinator, in particular, was viewed as the biggest reason the run defense would improve. Of course, that has not been the case. Teams are running for 143.2 yards per game on the Cowboys, which is sixth worst in the league. The defense has been hammered with injuries, but aside from Sam Williams, it was a mostly healthy bunch that was run over by the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens in weeks 2 and 3.
There’s enough blame to go around, but it’s hard to pinpoint where it begins. Zimmer is an obvious culprit, but the front office didn’t make enough upgrades to bolster the unit when it is at full strength. Expecting a scheme change to make a major difference when the best run-stopping defensive lineman is on injured reserve and the veteran starting linebacker misses a game might be a little unfair.
Offensively, there’s a similar theme. The Cowboys hoped Ezekiel Elliott had a lot more left in the tank, which he doesn’t. They hoped Deuce Vaughn would be able to elevate his game in his second season, which he hasn’t. They hoped Rico Dowdle’s flashing potential last year in a supplemental role with Tony Pollard would translate to his being a capable lead player in the committee. Dowdle has shown flashes but hasn’t had enough opportunities to issue a firm verdict, for numerous reasons.
The Cowboys knew they would pay big money to Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, therefore heaping most of the responsibility on the passing game to carry the offense and be the catalyst for the running game. That did not happen — the Cowboys rank last in the NFL in rushing yards per game and yards per attempt. The running backs haven’t been good enough, but neither has the offensive line. Chasing games after falling behind big in the first 20 minutes of half the games never helps, either.
Is there any reason for fans to think there’s a serious strategy in place for them to get to contention in the next couple of seasons? — Thomas P.
I would love to tell you the exact plan that would make you feel good about it, but it would be dishonest. However, it’s also worth noting the definition of “contention” here can be clouded by the plight of the team. It’s worth separating the doom and gloom of the moment and the full picture.
If contention means having a team that’s good enough to be in the conference championship game, the Cowboys can get there soon. Two things can be true: The franchise has had an inexplicable conference championship drought for nearly three decades but has also had some teams that were good enough to end that drought. Over the past decade, the 2014, 2016 and 2023 Cowboys come to mind.
As much as some hate to hear it, it’s hard to just dismiss three consecutive 12-win seasons as nothing. If you hide the logo of the team, most people would consider that to be a team in “contention.” But Troy Aikman said this offseason that the Cowboys would look upon the 2023 season with a lot of regret about what could have been, and I agree. Last year’s team was mostly healthy, led by a quarterback playing at an MVP level and aided by a division rival faltering enough to give it home-field in the playoffs until the conference title game. It proceeded to lay the biggest egg one could imagine. After that, it would be foolish for me to try to sell you optimism until the Cowboys do something in January to prove they’re worthy of it.
Which game do you have circled as (Mike) McCarthy’s Wade Phillips Green Bay game? My money is on Houston. — Bobby M.
Jerry Jones’ radio appearance on 105.3 The Fan on Monday mostly got headlines because of his comments about Derrick Henry, but an interesting tidbit lost in that interview was that Jones talked about the regret he had for firing Wade Phillips midway through the 2010 season. That was a situation in which Jones had his next coach, Jason Garrett, waiting in the wings. For him to say he regrets that midseason firing makes me think the bar is extremely high for McCarthy — who is in the final year of his contract — to lose his job in the middle of the season.
What complicates it further is that McCarthy isn’t just the head coach; he’s the head coach, offensive coordinator and play caller. Brian Schottenheimer officially holds the title of offensive coordinator, but this offense is fully run through McCarthy, from a coaching perspective. There’s also no budding coach on the staff who has immediate head-coach potential. What do you do if you fire McCarthy? Make Zimmer, whose defense is perhaps the team’s weakest link, the interim coach, just because he has head-coaching experience? Schottenheimer has previous coordinator experience, but again, the system and concepts of the offense won’t change midseason.
There are two scenarios in which I could see a midseason head-coaching change. The first is if the Cowboys continue to get blown out at the rate they are. A lengthy pattern of that would mean either a lack of preparation or the players’ just not buying in anymore and giving up on the coach, in which a change for the sake of change could be in order. The other scenario is if the Cowboys felt their 2025 coach was on a couch somewhere and wanted to give him the rest of the season to get his feet wet, with the off chance he leads a 2024 turnaround. Bill Belichick’s name gets a lot of play on the rumor mill, but until/unless that becomes a real thing, I don’t think there’s any one game I see on the schedule as McCarthy’s make-or-break.
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What will be better over the long term for the Cowboys? 4-13 with a high draft pick and no more McCarthy; 8-9 with McCarthy back; 8-9 without McCarthy; 11-6, lose first round, keep McCarthy? — Alan C.
I don’t think McCarthy would be back in any of the scenarios listed here. The conversation for McCarthy’s return to Dallas next year has little to do with the regular-season win total and maybe begins with the second round of the playoffs but more so the conference championship game.
(Top photo of Mike McCarthy: Sam Hodde / Getty Images)
