As the NFL trade deadline approaches, you’ll see a lot of hypothetical trades bandied about. Some are realistic, while others are a little more wishful thinking, but they usually all make you wonder: How would these swaps actually impact the teams as they gear up for playoff runs?
The acquiring team will likely improve, but we can try and quantify the impact using my NFL Projection Model.
My colleagues here at The Athletic, Jeff Howe and Mike Jones, came up with six potential trades they’d like to see before the deadline. I’m going to analyze my four favorites and gauge the impact on the trade while also analyzing why the deal may or may not make sense for both teams.
Using my model I can make the trades and simulate the season more than 100,000 times to see what kind of tangible impact each trade makes. We will define that impact in a couple of different ways. For example, for two, we highlighted the increase in playoff odds while for the other two, we gauged the impact a player would have on the unit he’s joining.
The latter is what we did for this first one:
Las Vegas Raiders trade DE Maxx Crosby to Detroit Lions for a 2025 first-round pick and a 2026 third-round pick
Lions defensive ranking in model without Crosby: 17th
Lions defensive ranking in model with Crosby: 10th
This is my favorite of all the proposed trades for multiple reasons. First, the Lions need to replace Aidan Hutchinson, and Crosby is more than capable of doing that. Second, Crosby isn’t a rental. He’s signed through 2026 and can help them contend this year and in the Super Bowl window they’ve created for the next couple of seasons. Finally, the Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL — ranked No. 2 behind the Baltimore Ravens by my model — but the defense has been lagging. While Crosby certainly helps this year, pairing him and Hutchinson together for two more years is nightmare fuel for offensive coordinators. Can you imagine how much havoc these two would create in opposing backfields?
But back to this year. The Lions (5-1) are already a Super Bowl contender. In fact, my model gives them the best Super Bowl odds of any team not located in Kansas City. But you see what kind of boost Crosby would give the defense. If they can pair the best offense in the NFC with a legitimate top-10 defense, well, there’s no such thing as a lock to make the Super Bowl, but …
From the Raiders perspective, this move almost makes too much sense. The current state of the Raiders’ roster is bleak. Crosby is one of the league’s best defenders, so it’s hard to move on from a player of his caliber, but the return will allow the Raiders to improve for the future. Crosby has two years left on his contract, and the Raiders aren’t likely to be competitive in that span. If I was in the Raiders’ front office, I’d make this move and build for the future.
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New York Jets trade Haason Reddick to Lions for a 2025 fourth-round pick
Lions defensive ranking in model without Reddick: 17th
Lions defensive ranking in model with Crosby: 14th
The Lions need pass rush help, so if they can’t add Crosby, Reddick is a stellar consolation prize. My model doesn’t see him giving the Lions defense quite the same bump as Crosby does, but every bit helps when you’re competing for a Super Bowl.
In terms of the actual trade parameters, Reddick — and his reworked one-year deal — would be a true rental, so the benefits would only be seen this season. While that’s not ideal, that means the cost of acquisition would be significantly less. Who knows? Maybe that’s more appealing for the Lions.
In New York, well, the Jets are a mess. They’re off to a 2-5 start, though they did just make a splash by acquiring Davante Adams. Reddick hasn’t played a snap yet this season, and Will McDonald looks like an excellent young pass rusher. If the Jets are starring at 2-7 or even 3-6 when the deadline hits, it would make plenty of sense to start thinking about next season and trying to recoup some of the value lost in acquiring Reddick this offseason.
Cleveland Browns trade RB Nick Chubb to Dallas Cowboys for a 2025 third-round pick and 2025 sixth-round pick
Playoff odds without Chubb: 23%
Playoff odds with Chubb: 26%
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The Cowboys desperately need an upgrade at running back. They might have the worst running back room in the entire NFL.
However, I’m not sure I’m in love with the price for Chubb in this hypothetical. A third- and a sixth-round pick is a steep price for a 29-year-old running back coming off a major knee injury who would also would be a rental. If the Cowboys were to extend Chubb, maybe I’m more on board, but the compensation is tough to rationalize for a Dallas team that can’t really afford to move precious draft capital right now.
And even if they wanted to do the deal, and even if Chubb returned to his pre-injury form, I’m not sure how big of an impact he can make. The Cowboys offensive line simply isn’t a reliable unit week to week, so Chubb’s talent would be somewhat negated.
On the Browns side of things, I’m jumping at the opportunity to trade Chubb and his expiring contract for significant draft capital. For one thing, a running back at his age, with his injury history, has low odds of returning to peak form. Second, the Browns aren’t going anywhere this year. If they still believe Deshaun Watson is the QB of the future — for the record, I do not — then getting draft picks to build around his mega-contract is the path forward. Finally, my model currently gives the Browns less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs. This season is over, and they should be trying to offload everyone who’s expendable and planning for the future.
Pittsburgh Steelers trade QB Justin Fields to Miami Dolphins for a 2025 fourth-round pick
Playoff odds with Tyler Huntley playing: 10%
Playoff odds with Fields playing: 21%
The Dolphins current playoff odds sit at 32% under the assumption starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) returns to action this weekend.
Clearly, this trade proposal was put forth in an effort to rectify the mistake the Dolphins made this offseason by not acquiring a more effective backup for Tagovailoa. Fields projects to be a far better replacement than Huntley has been, as he nearly doubles the chances of the Dolphins making the playoffs if Tagovailoa were to miss time again. Put another way: My model has the Dolphins offense ranked 30th with Huntley leading, and it would jump to 25th with Fields under center.
We’ve seen Fields succeed this season in Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s system, and I think he’d be just fine in Mike McDaniels’ scheme, as well. Still, I don’t know if I’m in love with giving up a fourth-round pick for a backup quarterback. Obviously, the hope would be that Fields never has to play if Tagovailoa stays healthy, so it’s hard to justify that level of compensation.
On the Steelers’ side of things, they should make this trade. I’m not sure Russell Wilson is the long-term answer at quarterback, but Fields likely isn’t either. There is a reason they benched Fields after his 4-2 start. Scoring a fourth-round pick for a backup quarterback is an opportunity they should jump at. The Steelers traded a sixth for Fields last offseason, so flipping him for a fourth would be a big win. Buy low, sell high. That’s how it’s done.
(Photo of Aidan Hutchinson and Maxx Crosby: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
