The NBA is back, baby!
As the season tips off, it’s a fun time for prognostication.
One NBA award that has always been a hot topic among friend groups is the MVP. This year, more than ever, a handful of guys could walk away with it, which has led to some contentious preseason discourse in my personal group chats.
So, who is the best player in the league right now? Well, the current favorite to win the award at BetMGM is Luka Don at +350. Rounding out the top five on the betting board are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+400), Nikola Joki (+475), Giannis Antetokounmpo (+850) and Jayson Tatum (+1000).
The MVP award is given to the best NBA player during the regular season who also appears in at least 65 games, but who is the best player on a game-to-game level? In one single game, who would you want with everything on the line? From a betting perspective, it can be measured as every NBA player is given a value toward the actual point spread on a game-by-game basis.
So, which players do bookmakers deem the most valuable toward the point spread and, thus, the most valuable game-to-game player?
To explore this topic further, we turned to the experts, Jeff Sherman (VP of Risk Management at the Westgate Superbook) and Thomas Gable (Sportsbook Director at The Borgata, a BetMGM operation in Atlantic City).
And finally, my fearless predictions for the coming season:https://t.co/nVZLIwie9n
— John Hollinger (@johnhollinger) October 22, 2024
Who are the most valuable players in the NBA toward the point spread, and how much are they worth per game?
Sherman: Giannis Antetokounmpo (4.5 points), Nikola Joki (4.5), Steph Curry (4) and Luka Donči (4)
Gable: Nikola Joki (5.5), Giannis Antetokounmpo (4.5 points) and Joel Embiid (4)
“It really starts with the depth of their respective teams and how much can be made up behind them,” Sherman said about the “The Greek Freak” and “The Joker” being rated above the rest.
“I still have Joki as the most valuable asset to the spread,” Gable explained. “I have him worth essentially 5.5 points per game to the spread. Without him on the floor last year, Denver had a -11.1 net rating, so he is crucial to Denver’s success, as so much of the offense runs through him.”
So, while Embiid likely won’t qualify to win MVP due to a shortage of games played, he is incredibly valuable to his team on a nightly basis (shocker!). And while Don leads the way as the season-long MVP favorite, Joki and Antetokounmpo are out front in terms of game-to-game value. Quantifying how players impact the spread and the prism through which bookmakers look at this topic can be a fun talking point among friends or potentially useful before placing a couple of bucks on a game.
(Photo: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
