It’s only Gameweek 9 but should we consider using the Triple Captain chip on a certain Norwegian forward even though it is not even a double gameweek?
More than 477,000 Fantasy Premier League managers used it on Erling Haaland (£15.4m) in Gameweek 2 against Ipswich (H) and were rewarded with 51 points.
In past seasons, it has been a no-brainer to use the Triple Captain chip in a double gameweek — but this season is different. With Manchester City playing Southampton at home, here are the pros and cons of playing your Triple Captain on Haaland.
Why you should play it…
Fewer double gameweeks and Mystery Chip
One of the main reasons FPL managers used their Triple Captain in Gameweek 2 was because there are likely to be only two double gameweeks this season. The FA Cup quarter-finals take place on a weekend in late March when there are no Premier League matches scheduled, so there will be no clash of fixtures.
FPL has also introduced a Mystery Chip which will be available from January. We have no idea what this will be but if the chip can be used in a double gameweek then we might run out of double gameweeks to use our chips. Typically, we use the Bench Boost in a double gameweek and the Free Hit in a double or blank gameweek. That’s four chips (Bench Boost, Triple Captain, Free Hit and Mystery Chip) for two expected doubles.
Rank gain
I doubt there will be anywhere near as many managers triple-captaining Haaland this week as did in Gameweek 2, mainly because Haaland has blanked in the last three league games so there will be recency bias. This will be advantageous for managers who are inclined towards risk and want to make huge rank gains.
Expected minutes
In Gameweek 2, there were no Champions League or cup games to worry about so we knew Haaland was likely to get 90 minutes. Although we do not have that same security of minutes here, he should still get the full 90 against Southampton.
Pep Guardiola’s team take on Tottenham Hotspur in the Carabao Cup on October 30, four days after the Southampton game. However, after beating Watford to reach the last 16 of the competition, Guardiola said: “We are not going to waste energy for this competition.” He also claimed he would play the “second team”.
If Guardiola is true to his word, he will go full strength at the weekend and rest Haaland in the cup.
Triple Captain is not a make-or-break chip
The Triple Captain is the least impactful chip, so if it goes wrong, it is not a disaster. It is a relatively low-risk and high-reward scenario for playing it this week. The Wildcard, Bench Boost and Free Hit are more powerful and can have a bigger impact on your season.
Fixture difficulty
Russel Martin’s team are the poorest in the league and most definitely one of the worst defences; you will not get a better fixture all season. There could be many factors later in the season, such as injuries and fixture congestion, during doubles which make him or other players risky.
Why you should save it…
Key players missing
Kevin De Bruyne (£9.4m) and Rodri (£6.3m) are big misses for City.
De Bruyne has provided 16 assists for Haaland across all competitions since the start of the 2022-23 season. This is more than any other player in the top five European leagues has assisted a team-mate in that period.
This season, the Norwegian has nine goals in four league games with De Bruyne in the team and one goal in four without. Although this is a much smaller sample size, it is fair to suspect City will create fewer chances without their most creative player.
Rodri, as has been well documented, impacts City overall. They have won 129 Premier League games out of 174 and lost 19 times with Rodri in the team, which translates to a win rate of 74.1 per cent and a loss rate of 10.9 per cent. Without the Spaniard, they have won 13 games out of 21 with seven losses — a win rate of 61.9 per cent and a loss rate of 33.3 per cent.
More information
It is always better to make decisions with more information, and Gameweek 9 is still early in the season.
We do not know how City will fair long term without De Bruyne and Rodri and there may be better opportunities to use the Triple Captain chip later. Postponements due to weather or unforeseen circumstances can occur which would open the door to more double gameweeks.
Saving it for later in the season can be a tactical play, too. If we get near the end of the season and you are not where you want to be rank-wise or in a mini-league, then you can choose to be more risk-tolerant and Triple Captain a player who is not popular to make up ground.
Or you can do the opposite if you are doing well and want to maintain rank — just Triple Captain the obvious template pick.
Mystery Chip
Knowing the nature of the Mystery Chip would drastically alter our chip strategies.
There could be a chance the Mystery Chip is not powerful or we will not be able to play it in a double gameweek. If that was the case, then the chip should not have a big effect on strategies or when we play our other chips.
So, what should you do?
The fixture this week is better for City than in Gameweek 2: Southampton are a poorer team than Ipswich and this is City’s best fixture of the season. However, that does not automatically make it a better time to use it.
The main reason that is putting me off is the absence of De Bruyne and Rodri, but I am not sure if this is a good enough reason to avoid. This is not to say City will not win this game comfortably. Haaland scored twice against Sparta Prague in the Champions League on Wednesday so it’s not like he’s forgotten where the back of the net is.
It depends on your risk appetite. Playing the Triple Captain chip this week is the aggressive and high-upside move. Saving it is the safe play.
(Top photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images)
