Welcome back for another season of fantasy football speculation, using our patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then for all the last-minute managers on-the-go, I’m adding a new section — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
As I started gathering obscure data, I realized something. The shallow nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats, so please enjoy the visuals, courtesy of TruMedia. In searching for a fantasy quarterback, of course we need volume, but also the willingness to push the ball downfield — so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth are established, it’s on to charting EPA/Attempt and NextGen Stats’ expected completion rate to complete the picture by mixing in good play and efficiency. (Images below)
Before you go digging through our speculative bargain bin, make sure Tua Tagovailoa, Jameis Winston, and Russell Wilson are no longer available. I was so excited for the QB streets to finally feature a few new faces — until they all got snatched up in a flash during the standard waiver run. If you lost your claim, forgot to bid or flat-out ran out of FAAB, it’s back to the usual suspects. I’m getting tired of recommending Trevor Lawrence every week, but this will likely be his last as he crests over the 50% rostership mark. I’ve noticed more teams than ever holding onto a second healthy QB (present company included) in standard leagues to avoid getting blindsided again by something like Anthony Richardson’s late Week 6 scratch. That little extra stress on free agents takes most of the viability from the streaming market. If totally desperate, I’d chase matchups and start Bo Nix, facing the historically inept Carolina Panthers. Last note: keep an eye on those drop lists, people — backup fantasy QBs are first to get jettisoned when bye weeks start back up next week.
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of weekly waivers, I won’t repeat the mainstream headliners — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure popular adds Kareem Hunt, Alexander Mattison, Sean Tucker and Tyrone Tracy Jr. have a home before you go deep-league dumpster diving. Last year, I proved success by pivoting away from the lowest hanging fruit in total touches. Instead, I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ballcarriers showing top-tier efficiency in terms of fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize them as a speculative add.
8 Available RBs w/+38.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
- Tyjae Spears, TEN — 63.9% Touch/Snap
- Ray Davis, BUF — 57.8% Touch/Snap
- Trey Benson, ARI — 56.0% Touch/Snap
- Cam Akers, HOU — 52.0% Touch/Snap
- Jaylen Wright, MIA — 47.4% Touch/Snap
- Dameon Pierce, HOU — 39.3% Touch/Snap
- Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 38.9% Touch/Snap
- Jaylen Warren, PIT — 38.3% Touch/Snap
9 Available RBs w/+0.35 Fantasy Points Per Snap (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
- Dameon Pierce, HOU — 0.62 FPS/Snap
- Ray Davis, BUF — 0.54 FPS/Snap
- Roschon Johnson, CHI — 0.52 FPS/Snap
- Kimani Vidal, LAC — 0.46 FPS/Snap
- Jeremy McNichols, WAS — 0.46 FPS/Snap
- JaMycal Hasty, NE — 0.42 FPS/Snap
- Tyjae Spears, TEN — 0.41 FPS/Snap
- Cam Akers, HOU — 0.36 FPS/Snap
- Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 0.36 FPS/Snap
It’s yet another suboptimal week for desperation RB streams if you happened to whiff on the first waiver run. That said, it’s par for the course at this stage of the season, where it becomes more about identifying the crop of “next men up.” With RB committees as the new standard, you’ll be hard-pressed to find immediate production. And that’s not to mention that somehow it’s the WRs, not the RBs, getting injured. If I had to pick my favorite combination of payout now and later, it’s Chargers backup Kimani Vidal. Jim Harbaugh’s Bolts haven’t exactly lit up the scoreboard, but the Saints run defense has played so poorly that maybe he gets the job done on limited touches. Through seven weeks, New Orleans ranks 30th or worse in defensive EPA/rush (-0.09), rush success rate (47.9%), rushing yards/game (146.7), yards before contact/rush (2.44), +20-yard carries (9), and rushing TD (9).
Wide Receivers
Like RBs, just make sure this week’s universal adds Jalen McMillan, Cedric Tillman, and Rashod Bateman belong to a squad already. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — it’s precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So let’s see who has both run routes and earned an above average amount of looks while doing it.
7 Available WRs w/ +16 Routes Run Per Game, +16% Targets Per Route, +0.25 Fantasy Points Per Route (Past 4 Games)
- Darius Slayton, NYG — 39.3 Rte/Gm, 19.1% TPRR, 0.31 FPS/Rte
- Tutu Atwell, LAR — 31.0 Rte/Gm, 26.9% TPRR, 0.38 FPS/Rte
- Gabe Davis, JAX — 27.0 Rte/Gm, 17.6% TPRR, 0.27 FPS/Rte
- Devaughn Vele, DEN — 24.0 Rte/Gm, 18.8% TPRR, 0.31 FPS/Rte
- Noah Brown, WAS — 23.3 Rte/Gm, 18.6% TPRR, 0.26 FPS/Rte
- K.J. Osborn, NE — 22.5 Rte/Gm, 17.8% TPRR, 0.26 FPS/Rte
- Bub Means, NO — 20.0 Rte/Gm, 16.3% TPRR, 0.28 FPS/Rte
- Troy Franklin, DEN — 16.5 Rte/Gm, 22.7% TPRR, 0.40 FPS/Rte
Oof. The brutal run of WR injuries continued again last weekend! Combine the drop in passing league-wide and it’s never been tougher to find a plug-and-play fantasy wideout. Most of the WRs listed above only gained relevance as stand-ins via injury with the lead now on the mend. I would’ve never guess I’d turn into a Broncos guy, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Denver has shown mild signs of life recently with Bo Nix under center and we could be seeing a second-half rookie bump for fourth-round draft pick Troy Franklin. An increased role in the Broncos offense has translated directly into production (image below), and facing the Panthers’ leaky secondary will boost their chance for success.
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top add Cade Otton isn’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism. This may very well wind up as an exercise in futility, but there’s no retreat and no surrender in these fantasy streets.
4 TEs w/+9% Team Target Share, +6.0 Air Yards Per Target (Past 3 Games)
- Noah Fant, SEA — 8.9% Team Tar, 6.3 AY/Tar
- Austin Hooper, NE — 9.3% Team Tar, 6.0 AY/Tar
- Jonnu Smith, MIA — 21.6% Team Tar, 6.9 AY/Tar
- Noah Gray, KC — 11.5% Team Tar, 7.2 AY/Tar
Top Stashes
- RB: Khalil Herbert, CHI — There’s still time! Herbert can’t sniff the field for Chicago and there are a couple of good teams in need of RB help.
Week 8 Sunday Streaming Service (<35% Rostered per Yahoo!)
- QB — Bo Nix, DEN vs CAR
- RB — Kimani Vidal, LAC vs NO
- RB — Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN vs CAR
- WR — Elijah Moore, CLE vs BAL
- WR — Gabe Davis, JAX vs GB
- WR — Sterling Shepard, TB vs BAL
- TE — Jonnu Smith, MIA vs ARI
- DST — Dolphins vs ARI
(Top photo of Bo Nix, Troy Franklin: Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
