Who will be the first Oilers recall from the AHL Bakersfield Condors?

A recall from the farm team can have a major impact on an NHL club.

Sometimes it’s an obvious transaction, like the fall 2015 recalls of Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse by the Edmonton Oilers. Those moves were a foregone conclusion, with only the timing to be decided.

Sometimes it’s a move that isn’t anticipated, and it can have a major, positive impact.

Last season the Oilers waived a $5 million starting goaltender and reached down to the AHL Bakersfield Condors roster for goaltender Calvin Pickard. He won 12 games during the regular season, provided the team with solid goaltending and then played a small but important role in the playoff run.

What about this year?

We don’t know what positions will need help, because injuries and ineffective play haven’t yet forced the issue.

There are several candidates, and most areas of possible need are covered by Edmonton’s minor league team. Here’s a look.

Centre

Bakersfield has an impressive group of centres this season, with multiple skill sets and strengths. A quick look at their offence (including all game states) and even-strength outscoring (excluding empty-net goals and goals scored on delayed penalties) through five games suggests the battle for first recall at this position is ongoing and no clear winner has emerged.

Noah Philp is the likely first recall at the position, he hasn’t missed a beat despite not playing for the entire 2023-24 season. Philp’s presence is everywhere, and he leads (with Lane Pederson) the team in shots through five games.

More competition should be expected over the season from Pederson and James Hamblin. Both veterans have had trouble outscoring so far this season, leaving Philp as the obvious choice.

Meanwhile, Jayden Grubbe, who is not expected to play in the NHL until next year at the earliest, continues to impress as an outscorer. He went 28-27 even-strength goals as a 20-year-old rookie pro last season and appears to be building on it this season.

First centre recall: Noah Philp

Wingers

The Condors have one outstanding prospect on right wing (Matthew Savoie) and several capable veterans like Drake Caggiula who could see NHL action this coming season. Here are the AHL numbers through five games:

Savoie is showing well but he’s just 20 and the Oilers will want him to see plenty of AHL time before his first recall. He has the pure offensive talent to score at a point-per-game rate in this league (he has eight points in 11 AHL games including this season and a cup of coffee one year ago in the Buffalo Sabres organization).

When he reaches a point-per-game scoring, expect Savoie-to-Edmonton discussions to increase.

Meanwhile, the veteran Drake Caggiula is playing well enough to be considered for recall (he was one of the later cuts) and Seth Griffith has enjoyed a strong start to his 2024-25 season.

Matvey Petrov had a pedestrian NHL training camp, but has performed well enough to stay in the lineup early in the year. He has NHL-level talent, and he and Condors coach Colin Chaulk have to find a way to unlock it in 2024-25.

First winger recall: Drake Caggiula

Defence

The most likely recall based on history is defence. It’s a difficult position to play and injuries from blocked shots, cross-checks, bones broken in fights and various other ailments make turnover more frequent.

Here’s a look at the Condors blue line so far this season:

Offensive output is less important for defencemen, but even-strength outscoring can identify difference-makers.

In the season before he emerged as a real NHL defenceman, Vincent Desharnais delivered a breathtaking goal share (68-35, +33) for the Condors and gained recognition as a giant suppressor of offence.

There is no one in Bakersfield trending in that direction at this time.

Max Wanner has been on the ice for a pile more goals than indicated here, but empty-net goals (one) and goals scored when an extra attacker has joined the chat (two) are not ‘flow of play’ even-strength tallies. They are not counted here.

Noel Hoefenmayer has been noticeable in these games, he seems to be playing more than one year ago.

Josh Brown is the defenceman in this group who owns an NHL deal, and he has played LH side (he’s a righty) as well as his natural position.

He hasn’t looked especially effective compared to the other Condors defencemen but he is a physical presence and an absolute hammer when the going gets rough.

First defence recall: Josh Brown

Goaltender

The Condors have two impressive goaltenders this season.

Olivier Rodrigue is well-known to Oilers fans and the top prospect at the position in the entire system. He has finished top-10 in AHL save percentage for the last two seasons and has played well (.905 save percentage) in three games this fall.

Newcomer Collin Delia has played just two games, but performed brilliantly in both contests. He boasts a terrific .961 save percentage and a goals-against average under 1.00 in the early days of the season.

Delia has more NHL experience and played in the league as recently as 2022-23 (20 games with the Vancouver Canucks).

First goalie recall: Collin Delia

Bottom line

The best long-term talents in Bakersfield are Savoie, Petrov, Grubbe, Wanner and Rodrigue.

None of those names are in contention for first recall, but could come into view later in the season. Savoie is especially intriguing, as the level of competition for him in the AHL is not overwhelming at age 20.

Brown is the most likely player to be recalled first. Defencemen get hurt most often, he has an NHL deal and it was a mild surprise he didn’t make the NHL team out of camp.

Despite the Oilers improved record of late, head coach Kris Knoblauch and his coaching staff are still looking for defensive solutions. An example is Darnell Nurse spending time with both Troy Stecher and Brett Kulak on Friday night against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Brown may be recalled and inserted into the lineup if the coaches can’t find answers on the current roster.

Among the forwards, Philp is the most likely player to be recalled. He would certainly be the first centre brought up, and there’s a chance he would get the call even if Edmonton needed a winger.

Philp’s style, mature play (he doesn’t make many mistakes) and scoring touch put him ahead of names like Caggiula and Cameron Wright.

The actual recall will probably be made necessary by an injury to a player currently in the NHL.

Bet on Brown. It’s almost always the defencemen.

(Photo of Josh Brown: Perry Nelson / Imagn Images)