This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 8 games. To better understand some of the advanced analytical systems, read this primer article
Note: The advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are PPR. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the Sunday night games.
Is it time to drop Dak Prescott?
Forget the final point total Dak Prescott posted versus the San Francisco 49ers Sunday night. Most of those 13.62 points were tallied against a prevent defense late in the game.
Instead, focus on Prescott scoring only 0.54 points by the end of the third quarter — the second-lowest point total through three quarters of a game in his career. This game followed Prescott’s 3.22 points in Week 6, his fifth-lowest point total in a full game. The seven quarters from Week 6 through the third quarter of Week 8 were arguably the worst in Prescott’s fantasy scoring career.
His issues have been on both short and vertical passes. That said, Prescott’s path to redemption goes through the vertical pass since he ranks eighth in that category on a points per game (PPG) basis this season.
His vertical PPG number took a hit against a tough San Francisco defense that ranked third in vertical PPG allowed in Weeks 4-8. How is Prescott likely to fare versus the Cowboys’ future opponents?
Here are the next five foes on the Dallas schedule, along with their ranking in vertical PPG allowed from Weeks 5-8
| Opponent | Rank | Vertical PPGA |
|---|---|---|
 Atlanta |
19
|
5.65
|
 Philadelphia |
2
|
1.55
|
 Houston |
26
|
7.12
|
 Washington |
9
|
4.14
|
 NY Giants |
10
|
4.35
|
That’s two favorable matchups and three unfavorable matchups. Unless Prescott and company can find a way to break the current trend, Dallas’ franchise quarterback could be a spot-start candidate at best.
Is Jameis Winston the real deal?
There’s also a second question: “How will he impact Cleveland’s other fantasy-relevant players?”
Winston had a fantastic Week 8, posting 23.56 points versus an inconsistent Ravens defense that had to move secondary players around due to injury.
Vertical passes were the key to this. Winston racked up 17.36 points on those downfield throws, a mark that ranked second among Week 8 quarterbacks. Success in this area is not an anomaly for Winston. Throughout his career, Winston has averaged 6.75 vertical PPG. This pace would rank eighth among quarterbacks in the 2024 season. It’s also worth noting that Joe Flacco notched a 10.09 vertical PPG last year, first among quarterbacks.
Deshaun Watson was an exception to the Browns quarterbacks’ downfield largesse. He averaged only 2.96 vertical PPG in six starts in 2022, 4.89 PPG in six starts in 2023 and 2.71 PPG in 2024.
Kevin Stefanski’s offense is built for a quarterback who is aggressive on downfield throws. Watson never got comfortable doing that. Conversely, Winston is sometimes too comfortable, to the point of throwing 30 picks in 2019. That’s a problem, but from a fantasy manager’s perspective, a few interceptions aren’t a deal breaker for a quarterback capable of putting up 17 points in a game on vertical passes alone.
What makes his case even stronger is that the Browns may get into a ton of scoreboard shootouts over the next nine weeks. In that span, Cleveland faces the Steelers (twice), Broncos, Chiefs, Bengals and Dolphins. Fantasy managers will want to get a part of those games, so Winston’s a player to add to fantasy benches.
This QB upgrade also immediately makes David Njoku a strong TE1. Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy — who posted 16.5 and 12.9 points, respectively, against Baltimore — are also now viable flex candidates. Cedric Tillman is the wild card, as he has posted 47 points over the past two games. That pace almost certainly won’t continue, but the big play potential should put Tillman at or near the top of this week’s fantasy waiver wire picks.
Can Joe Mixon endure the heavy workload Houston is giving him?
The Texans brought Joe Mixon in to be a bell cow back, and he’s achieved that status more than any other running back this year. For proof, consider that 10 players have posted a game with 27 or more scrimmage plays, and Mixon is the only player with more than one game of this nature (he has three).
But is the volume too high? Mixon has 116 scrimmage plays right now. If he posts nine more games with 25 touches, he will end up with 341 scrimmage plays. No back reached that high of a play total in 2023, and it’s been done only 23 times since the 2014 season.
Mixon was the only player in the league to post 270-plus scrimmage plays in five seasons from 2018-23, so his track record suggests he can do this. However, three issues suggest that volume could be a problem.
First, Mixon has never posted more than 334 scrimmage plays in a year. Second, he just reached the 2,000 mark in career scrimmage plays. Only 59 percent of players in NFL history who reach that level make it to the 2,500-scrimmage play mark, which means high-usage backs can hit the proverbial wall quickly.
Third, the Texans will want Mixon to be fresh for a potential playoff run. Wearing him out during the season could preclude that, and he’s now missed at least three games for the third time in five seasons.
In addition, Houston has a solid backup running back in Dameon Pierce and has four red-rated rush defense matchups in Weeks 10-17.
Those are a lot of negatives potentially working against Mixon. So, what should fantasy managers do?
It’s never a good idea to trade away a back when he has posted three straight games with 20-plus points. The suggestion here is to wait until Mixon starts showing signs of wear and tear and then consider trading him at near-peak value.
Is Raheem Mostert once again a starting-caliber running back?
Mostert probably sat on a lot of fantasy benches this past week following a dismal 3.0-point performance against Indianapolis in Week 7. His 16.0 points against Arizona in Week 8 indicate that was a mistake, albeit an understandable one.
Is that double-digit point total a harbinger of things to come? Let’s look at how the Miami running back snap counts played out in that Cardinals game.
| Player | Off. snaps | Def. snaps | Pass snaps | Rush snaps | Routes | Pass blk snaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 De'Von Achane |
37
|
0
|
24
|
13
|
24
|
0
|
 Raheem Mostert |
30
|
0
|
19
|
11
|
18
|
1
|
 Alec Ingold |
26
|
0
|
10
|
16
|
10
|
0
|
 Jaylen Wright |
3
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
This is almost the definition of a platoon setup, with two backs dividing the work equally. (Ingold is a blocking back.)
Mostert outscored Achane on a PPG basis in all of the main league scoring categories last year. That’s not the case this season. But with Mostert garnering platoon work in a Miami offense that has Tua Tagovailoa back under center, it’s a good idea to strongly consider Mostert for flex duty — especially as the Dolphins have only one red-rated rush defense matchup remaining on the schedule.
(Photo of Dak Prescott: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
