If you love chaos and the vision of SEC administrators banging their heads against the walls, you might like the following scenario, which has a non-zero chance of happening: Georgia being the No. 1 team in the country but not making the SEC Championship Game.
Here’s how it happens: First, Georgia wins its final five games, Oregon loses a game and Georgia rises to No. 1. Next, Texas A&M wins out to be the lone unbeaten team in SEC play and LSU wins out, making it and Georgia the only one-loss teams. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, and they didn’t play. The next tiebreaker is record versus common opponents, and LSU wins that by beating Alabama.
And voila, you get a rematch of last Saturday’s game rather than the team that won that game playing the actual No. 1 team in the country. Fun!
We’re still a long way from that happening. Texas A&M might lose one of its three remaining SEC games (at South Carolina, at Auburn, Texas). LSU could lose to Alabama in two weeks or one of its other three games (at Florida, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma). Georgia could lose to Florida, Ole Miss or Tennessee. The door remains open to one-loss Tennessee and Texas, maybe even one of the six teams — six! — with two conference losses, including Alabama and Ole Miss.
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Yeah, it could get really fun.
Or maybe it’ll sort out cleanly in the end.
Here at the vibes rankings, we order teams via wildly subjective criteria: the feelings around the program, momentum, what its expectations were and the general perception of how things are going. It is not a pure ranking of how good teams are, but neither are the standings anymore. Anyway, the vibes:
1. Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0 SEC)
Beat LSU 38-23
Last week: 4
Mike Elko is out there swashbuckling like a coach using all his first-year capital: changing quarterbacks and having it work and throwing shade at his predecessor, whom he worked under for five years. These are fun times for the Aggies. Is it for real, and will it last? Who cares — enjoy the ride.
2. Georgia (6-1, 4-1)
Bye
Last week: 1
Georgia’s offense ranks seventh in the SEC in scoring, sixth in total yards and tied for eighth in yards per play. Georgia’s defense isn’t much better: fourth in points allowed, seventh in total yards allowed and eighth in yards-per-play allowed. All pedestrian, but the schedule hasn’t been: Georgia has faced three top-10 opponents (Texas, Clemson, Alabama), played three road games at night (Kentucky, Alabama, Texas) and faced only one non-power-conference team; every other SEC team except Florida has played at least two.
3. Tennessee (6-1, 3-1)
Bye
Last week: 2
Tennessee seems like it’s in a great spot: It has three games it should win (Kentucky, Mississippi State, UTEP), two games it just needs to split (at Georgia, at Vanderbilt), a good defense and an offense and quarterback who at any time could roar back to life. But until that quarterback comes to life, and consistently, it’s hard to fully buy in.
4. Vanderbilt (5-3, 2-2)
Lost to Texas 27-24
Last week: 5
Every week, there’s one team I look at and think: “You know what? I had it too high/too low.” Last week it was Vanderbilt, which dropped because other teams had big wins and the Commodores had a middling win over Ball State. But in retrospect, it’s Vanderbilt, so if it’s 5-2, the vibes are great. And even in losing Saturday, the vibes remain high: There were several chances for Texas to put the game away, and Diego Pavia and company kept coming back. This remains the most interesting team in the SEC this year, and for good reason.
5. Arkansas (5-3, 3-2)
Won at Mississippi State 58-25
Last week: 12
Barring a late-season collapse, it appears we can put Sam Pittman’s hot seat on ice. A late-season date against Louisiana Tech should clinch bowl eligibility, and every other game (Ole Miss, Texas, at Missouri) offers a different degree of winnable. More importantly, the way Arkansas is playing indicates the program is in a better place than it ended last year.
6. Texas (7-1, 3-1)
Won at Vanderbilt 27-24
Last week: 7
If we wanted to make such an inference, we could point out that Texas’ most convincing SEC win has been against Oklahoma, its former Big 12 partner. In the other three, it has lost by 15 at home to Georgia, won by 3 at Vanderbilt and messed around at home with one-win Mississippi State before pulling away by 22 points. But it’s a small sample and plenty of football remains, so we will not point out any of that.
7. South Carolina (4-3, 2-3)
Bye
Last week: 6
For everyone wondering why most teams in the top half of the standings aren’t playing each other, maybe it’s because they’re busy playing South Carolina, which already faced LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama. The Gamecocks get Texas A&M this week, then face Vanderbilt and Missouri. And just for giggles, the season finishes at Clemson. If the rankings hold, that would mean seven of 12 games against ranked opponents.
8. Alabama (6-2, 3-2)
Beat Missouri 34-0
Last week: 13
The vibes still can’t tell whether this is the team that went up 28-0 on Georgia or the one that messed around for the next 3 1/2 games. But its win over Missouri stopped the downward momentum, and now there’s a bye week to get ready for LSU, which could decide the Tide’s Playoff hopes.
9. Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2)
Beat Oklahoma 26-14
Last week: 10
Ole Miss’ offense during the first four games, against three non-power-conference teams and Wake Forest: 214 points, 2,683 yards. Ole Miss’ offense during the next four games, all against SEC teams: 96 points, 1,311 yards. Yes, three of those SEC opponents — Kentucky, South Carolina and Oklahoma — have salty defenses. But it’s still quite a stark difference.
10. Florida (4-3, 2-2)
Bye
Last week: 8
The momentum is slow, but Billy Napier might be doing enough to earn another year with the Gators. If it’s a close call, you would think he’ll be back, given he has an interim president and an athletic director invested in him. But getting clobbered in Jacksonville by Georgia on Saturday quickly could derail all of that.
11. LSU (6-2, 3-1)
Lost at Texas A&M 38-23
Last week: 3
This still be could a Playoff team: It just needs to beat Alabama in two weeks and win every other game, when it will be favored. But Brian Kelly’s team just isn’t doing enough to make you trust it: The defense looks like it’s putting things together but gets run over by the backup quarterback. Garrett Nussmeier looks like a first-round quarterback but then throws three picks. Maybe it’ll finally come together in a couple of weeks, but Tigers fans must be frustrated waiting for that to happen.
12. Auburn (3-5, 1-4)
Won at Kentucky 24-10
Last week: 14
The four-game losing streak is over. The narrative that this team is one bad play in three games (Cal, Oklahoma, Missouri) away from being 5-2 is very much alive. It’s not a narrative the vibes will quite embrace, but you can bet Hugh Freeze will!
13. Missouri (6-2, 2-2)
Lost at Alabama 34-0
Last week: 9
Realistically, the Playoff hopes are about over. Maybe if Missouri can win out, it can base its argument on Brady Cook being out for most of the Alabama game. And it’s worth a try. But this team is now minus-52 in point differential against power-conference opponents, has no big wins and has no real opportunities in the final stretch.
14. Mississippi State (1-7, 0-5)
Lost to Arkansas 58-25
Last week: 11
After looking decent for three straight weeks, the streak ends and the vibes go back down. Mississippi State has had some down years but hasn’t gone winless in SEC play since 2002. Zach Arnett inherited a tough situation last year and still went 5-7. I know the athletic director wanted his coach, but man.
15. Oklahoma (4-4, 1-4)
Lost at Ole Miss 26-14
Last week: 16
Well, at least Saturday’s first half was good. But in the big picture, we’re still saying that Oklahoma keeping it within 12 was covering the spread — by 8 points — which does not say a lot for the current state of the program.
According to @PFF_College, none of Ole Miss’ sacks of Jackson Arnold yesterday came on blitzes.
Arnold was sacked nine times. Dudes just getting beat one-on-one.
— Tom Green (@Tomas_Verde) October 27, 2024
16. Kentucky (3-5, 1-5)
Lost to Auburn 24-10
Last week: 15
Mark Stoops burnished his solid reputation in past years by generally winning the games he should and not beating the better teams. This year, he got a big win at Ole Miss and took Georgia to the brink, but he has lost to Auburn, South Carolina and Vanderbilt at home and got shellacked at Florida.
Stoops has had a pretty good run at Kentucky, and it’s not to say it should be over. But it feels pretty close to that.
(Top photo: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
