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Hello! We’re headed for Germany. Are Bayern Munich back in business?
On the way:
🇩🇪 Vincent Kompany’s Bayern Munich baptism
🤕 Manchester City injury crisis for Pep Guardiola
🍿 Watching Bukayo Saka’s 50 Premier League goals
🎆 Pyro madness at River Plate
Good Kompany?
Last season in Germany belonged to Bayer Leverkusen; Bundesliga champions for the first time, in near-perfect fashion. But little occurs at the top of German football without the conversation turning to Bayern Munich, the club who usually hoard that trophy.
The most intriguing question in the aftermath of Xabi Alonso’s insurgency was whether it represented a power shift — it would be unrealistic to expect extended dominance from Leverkusen but had they ushered in an era when Bayern weren’t untouchable? Would German football find a new competitive edge?
It needed to. Bayern have been champions 33 times. No other club in Germany is in double figures, and Leverkusen’s title took 120 years. But last season rattled the great and the good in Munich. They washed their hands of Thomas Tuchel. They punted on Vincent Kompany (above) as head coach, not long after he and Burnley were relegated from the Premier League.
As best they could, Bayern pressed the reset button.
Has it worked? Yes and no. Kompany’s side are top of the Bundesliga, ahead of RB Leipzig on goal difference. But in the Champions League, they’ve lost two of their three matches, the worst of them a 4-1 hiding against Barcelona. Seb Stafford-Bloor thought it was time to ask — are this version of Bayern any cop?
Was Tuchel unlucky?
Kompany’s predecessor, Tuchel, took the England job last month. Bayern’s underlying numbers under him were strong, they just couldn’t match a Leverkusen side who went unbeaten, won 28 of their 34 league fixtures and finished with 90 points. Leverkusen were a freak of nature.
Like other patches where failure routinely prompts the night of the long knives — Real Madrid and Barcelona in Spain, the Old Firm in Scotland — Tuchel was never going to get away with Bayern spilling the title having won it for 11 years straight.
Kompany is fairing well domestically. Bayern have banged in 29 goals, an average of 3.6 a game. They’ve conceded just seven and they’re yet to lose. Kompany has them functioning at both ends of the pitch, although our rolling expected goals (xG) graph, above, suggests Bayern carried a whole lot more attacking threat under Tuchel.
When he isn’t leaving his studs in on goalkeepers, Harry Kane is doing what he does (15 goals already), and Michael Olise has been a delight since his move from Crystal Palace, landing more seamlessly in Germany than anybody anticipated. This assist for Jamal Musiala against Werder Bremen had us drooling.
(YouTube/Bundesliga)
However, teething problems are evident. Kompany’s style — described as “mechanical and repetitive” by Seb — can hit brick walls against low, defensive blocks. Their press looks like a grind, too. Barca had it sussed when the teams met in the Champions League, cutting through and cantering to victory.
It was probably telling that, with the Liverpool job potentially on offer to him, Leverkusen boss Alonso chose to sit tight over the summer. Perhaps he wants to cut his teeth further. Perhaps he is holding out for the Bernabeu. But perhaps he reckoned Bayern’s stumble was more than one season off, and more German honours might be attainable. Bayern look stable under Kompany — but not exceptional, yet.
📺 Saturday’s Bundesliga picks: Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin, 10.30am/2.30pm — ESPN+; Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig, 1.30pm/5.30pm — ESPN+/Sky Sports.
News round-up 📰
- It had to be done, and the Spanish Football Federation (RFEF) yesterday confirmed that tomorrow’s La Liga match between Valencia and Real Madrid was being postponed because of deadly flooding in the Valencia area. Real are donating £840,000 ($1.1m) towards rescue efforts.
- Paris Saint-Germain have been hit with a partial stadium closure as punishment for a section of their fans engaging in homophobic chanting. One area of the Parc des Princes will be empty for their Ligue 1 game against Toulouse on November 22.
- There’s a new contract for the excellent Fermin Lopez at Barcelona. The 21-year-old midfielder is on the books at Camp Nou until 2029.
- On the subject of youngsters worth investing in, Aston Villa are talking to 22-year-old Morgan Rogers about improving his deal. Good call — he’ll land a first senior England call-up soon.
- Manchester United interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy wants to stick around at Old Trafford once new head coach Ruben Amorim descends. “I’m very motivated to stay,” he says.
- It’s pleasing to see Liverpool getting heavy with ticket touts. More of this, please.
Turning the tables
It’s possible that TAFC has previously been guilty of trolling the Premier League table predictor known as the supercomputer. Its predictions change from week to week. If it was indeed super, it would be able to call the standings in August. Get your coat.
No such qualms, though, with the 10-game point in a season being used to gauge how the division will look on the final day. The correlation is surprisingly accurate, and I found this stat from Mark Carey’s article incredible: 77 per cent of the statistical variance in the table after 38 matches can be explained by how the table looks after just 10.
I know what you’re thinking. Manchester City are top and they don’t bottle these races, so let’s just hang out the bunting. But no — because City are in the mud with injuries. They dropped like flies in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday, and Pep Guardiola claims only 13 of his players are fit. “We’re in real difficulty,” Pep moaned. Needless to say, supercomputers can’t foresee this.
The Premier League balancing act ⚖️
For the first time, four Premier League teams failed to win any of their opening eight fixtures. Crystal Palace sorted themselves out by beating Tottenham Hotspur last weekend but Ipswich Town, Southampton and Wolverhampton Wanderers are still waiting to roll a double.
You don’t need me to tell you that Ipswich and Southampton have just been promoted. Given that the three sides relegated last season were the same three who came up from the Championship in 2022-23, Michael Cox is reasonably debating whether promoted teams need to grow a pair and be braver — braver with their style, their ambition, their recruitment.
It’s a fine balance. Stretch yourself too far in the Premier League and the consequences can be financially ruinous. Moreover, the disparity in wealth between the Championship and England’s top division is beyond stupid. But Michael’s argument is a fair one: what’s the point in coming up if you simply go back down with a whimper? Turn those knuckles white.
Around The Athletic FC ⚽
- Bukayo Saka is doing the business at Arsenal and has hit the 50-goal mark in the Premier League. Liam Tharme sat and watched them all. Hard life.
- If you enjoyed Evangelos Marinakis Part One yesterday, buckle up for the second instalment of the legal case brought by Nottingham Forest’s owner. I’d get a coffee first.
- Arda Guler is a heck of a talent — so odd that he isn’t cutting through more at Real Madrid. Guillermo Rai looked into his situation.
- Here’s an unreal fact: Chelsea’s last win against Manchester United at Old Trafford came in… May 2013, so long ago that Rafa Benitez was manager. Can they smash that streak this Sunday?
- Most clicked in yesterday’s TAFC: the impending postponement of Valencia versus Real.
Quiz Question❓
A final mention of the Ballon d’Or for the week, if you can stand it after Real Madrid’s hissy fit. Eleven English clubs have had a player finish in the top three over the years. Go on — name them.
We’ll have the answers in Monday’s TAFC, and you’ll find them here later today.
Catch a match (times ET/UK) 📺
(Selected games)
Friday:
MLS Cup, round one: Charlotte vs Orlando City, 7.30pm/11.30pm; Colorado Rapids vs LA Galaxy, 9.30pm/1.30am — both MLS Season Pass/Apple TV.
Saturday:
Premier League: Newcastle vs Arsenal, 8.30am/12.30pm — USA Network, Fubo/TNT Sports; Wolves vs Crystal Palace, 1.30pm/5.30pm — NBC, Fubo, Peacock Premium/Sky Sports.
Ligue 1: PSG vs Lens, 12pm/4pm — beIN Sports, Fubo.
MLS Cup, round one: New York City vs Cincinnati, 5pm/9pm; Atlanta United vs Inter Miami, 7pm/11pm; Minnesota United vs Real Salt Lake, 9pm/1am — all MLS Season Pass/Apple TV.
Sunday:
Premier League: Tottenham vs Aston Villa, 9am/2pm; Manchester United vs Chelsea, 11.30am/4.30pm — both USA Network, Fubo/Sky Sports.
La Liga: Barcelona vs Espanyol, 10.15am/3.15pm — ESPN+, Fubo/Premier Sports.
Serie A: Napoli vs Atalanta, 6.30am/11.30am; Inter Milan vs Venezia, 2.45pm/7.45pm — both CBS, Paramount+, Amazon Prime, Fubo/OneFootball, TNT Sports.
MLS Cup, round one: New York Red Bulls vs Columbus Crew, 4.30pm/9.30pm; Houston Dynamo vs Seattle Sounders, 6.30pm/11.30pm — both MLS Season Pass/Apple TV; Vancouver Whitecaps vs LAFC, 8.45pm/1.45am — MLS Season Pass, Fox Sports, Fubo/Apple TV.
And finally…
UN RECIBMIENTO HISTÓRICO Y MONUMENTAL 🤍❤️🤍 pic.twitter.com/nMzMrv0syc
— River Plate (@RiverPlate) October 30, 2024
It’s Bonfire Night in the UK on Tuesday, an annual feast of fireworks. I’ll wager that nobody here will beat the pyrotechnics produced by Argentina’s River Plate before their Copa Libertadores semi-final at home to Brazil’s Atletico Mineiro.
The scores on the doors? River Plate went out on aggregate. But even so, bloody hell…
Got a question/feedback? Email us: [email protected]
(Top photo: Tobias Schwarz/Getty Images)
