Ahead of Sunday’s marquee matchup between the Lions (6-1) and Packers (6-2) at Lambeau Field, Packers beat writer Matt Schneidman and Lions beat writer Colton Pouncy dove into Green Bay’s chances against Detroit’s offense, the Lions’ pass rush without Aidan Hutchinson and much more.
Schneidman: Pretend you’re a defensive coordinator facing the Lions. How do you go about stopping them?
Pouncy: Me personally? Pray? I guess I’d start there. The Lions have the No. 1 scoring offense at 33.4 points per game. They’ve scored 40 in three of their last four games and have pulled their starters early in the fourth quarter in two of those contests. They’re firing on all cylinders after a slow start to the season — much of which was self-inflicted more than anything.
If you’re going to try to slow them down, though, the Buccaneers’ Week 2 win might’ve provided the blueprint, though some of that was self-inflicted. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson wanted to throw to set up the run, which is typically the opposite of how things are done over here. The Bucs sniffed out screens, blew up plays in the red zone and generated interior pressure against center Frank Ragnow and left guard Graham Glasgow (11 combined pressures allowed). It led to 55 pass attempts for Jared Goff, which isn’t a winning recipe. Detroit had 463 yards of offense but 16 points to show for it after going 1-of-7 in the red zone. It took a bend-don’t-break type of game to limit the damage.
Matt, the Packers rattled Johnson’s offense in Detroit last year — ruining Thanksgiving for some folks out here. Think they have the tools to do it again?
Schneidman: If I’m being honest, I don’t. The Packers’ Achilles’ heel on defense for most of the time since I got here in 2019 has been their run defense. They’re not awful this season in rush defense EPA per snap, ranking 17th on TruMedia. But they’ve been gashed by some of the best backs they’ve faced — Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones. I think Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are the best running back duo in the league. I mean, a combined 1,006 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns is wild. Add in that the Lions rank fourth in ESPN Analytics’ run-block win rate and it doesn’t look good for Green Bay’s front seven.
That being said, the Packers have four more takeaways (19) than any other team in the NFL, including a league-high nine fumble recoveries. They even made up their own bible verse, Campy 3:16, named after linebackers coach Anthony Campanile: “God loves those who run to the ball.” I guess it’s paying off. And what a free-agent signing safety Xavier McKinney has been, huh? He has a league-high six interceptions and is in the running for Defensive Player of the Year. The Lions rank tied for fourth with only five giveaways, though, so I’m not sure the Packers will have multiple takeaways like they have in seven of eight games this season. If they don’t, I think the Lions offense thrives.
On the other side of the ball, how has the pass rush looked without Aidan Hutchinson?
Pouncy: It hasn’t been great, at least in terms of production from edge rushers. Since Hutchinson went down, Lions edge rushers have produced only 17 pressures. For reference, Hutchinson had 15 (!!!) pressures in his last full game alone. The Lions still have Alim McNeill creating havoc from the interior. They added Al-Quadin Muhammad a few weeks ago and he made his debut versus the Titans, recording six pressures and a win rate of 24.1 percent.
They also added Isaiah Thomas, signed off the Cleveland Browns practice squad, and kicked defensive tackle Levi Onwuzurike out to defensive end against the Titans. He had five pressures last week. The Lions have also upped their blitz rate — no team in the NFL has blitzed more than the Lions over the last two games (44.9 percent, per TruMedia). The results have been mixed, as they look to manufacture pressure. That’s why the Lions need to add an edge rusher before Tuesday’s trade deadline. There are few holes on this team, but that’s a bit of a glaring one. A guy like former Packer and current Brown Za’Darius Smith would make a ton of sense.
Detroit’s defense will have its work cut out with all the Green Bay playmakers offensively. How have all those pieces worked together under Matt LaFleur — a coach I think is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL?
Schneidman: It’s been an interesting year in Green Bay on that side of the ball. Jordan Love sprained his MCL in the season opener and strained his groin on the first drive against the Jaguars last week, but backup Malik Willis, whom the Packers traded for in late August, has been exceptional in the 2 1/2 games he’s played. Not only that, but LaFleur and his staff have been so good at designing games with Willis at the helm that they’ve won all three he’s played significant roles in. That could matter this week if Love doesn’t play, though QB1 returned to practice Thursday in a limited capacity and seems on track to play Sunday.
Jayden Reed was the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver for the first couple of weeks of the season, but Romeo Doubs, who served a one-game suspension in Week 5 after skipping two practices without explanation, responded with three strong games featuring a combined 14 catches, 215 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Packers still don’t have a bona fide No. 1 receiver, but there are three or four capable of leading a game and LaFleur seems to have them buying in that team exploits are more important than individual ones. Everyone thought last year that 2023 second-round pick Luke Musgrave would be the No. 1 tight end, but it’s been 2023 third-round pick Tucker Kraft who has established himself as one of the NFL’s best at the position. He ranks second among tight ends in yards per catch, first in yards after catch per reception and second in touchdown catches.
Tucker Kraft with some serious YAC!
📺: #GBvsJAX on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/9l2P89UmI5— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
At running back, Josh Jacobs has been everything the Packers signed up for in free agency — durable, explosive and efficient — and he ranks tied for first in carries, fourth in rushing yards and 10th in yards after contact per rush.
The Packers rank sixth in points per game (27), even with Love tying for the league lead with nine interceptions. He’s tied for third with 15 touchdown passes, though, and has been a boom-or-bust quarterback this season who insists he’s not scaling back his aggressiveness as it’s led to more good than bad. Can he refine his play enough on a groin that probably won’t be 100 percent so as not to give the Lions extra possessions? Doing so might be the key to pulling this one off.
LaFleur was very complimentary this week of Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, the two leading candidates to pick off Love. What stands out most about their play?
Pouncy: We first learned of the Lions’ plans to move Branch to safety at the NFL owners’ meetings in March. Lions coach Dan Campbell said then he thought Branch was ready for the move ahead of his second season, after mostly letting him settle in at nickel as a rookie. The whole point of the move was to ensure that Branch never leaves the field. Branch would often move to the bench when Detroit would go with its sam package with a third LB on the field in 2023. Not ideal having one of your best defenders sub out for a chunk of every game. This year, the Lions essentially made that sam package their base defense to keep Derrick Barnes (before his injury) on the field.
Moving Branch to safety allowed Barnes and Branch to be on the field together, without exchanging one for the other. And Branch has been excellent since making the move. He’s got a high football IQ and tremendous instincts. Moving to safety has allowed him to see the whole field as opposed to just his responsibility at nickel. He’s also a perfect fit next to Joseph, who’s among the best ball-hawking safeties in the league as Detroit’s center fielder. Four of his five interceptions have come in the red zone, so they’ve also been timely. Together, they’re responsible for 10 takeaways (nine interceptions and a forced fumble). They’ve been excellent together.
Brian Branch picks off Darnold!
📺: #DETvsMIN on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/W0zCRtryla— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024
Detroit’s toughest remaining games are their NFC North contests, and a road game against the 6-2 Packers certainly qualifies. If the Green Bay defense can put the ball on the ground or force the offense out of sync like last year, and the offense can control the clock a bit and keep the Lions off the field, the Packers could come away with a win at home in a crucial contest. However, it’s hard for me to pick against a Lions team that’s as hot as this one. It won’t look like some of the more recent wins on Detroit’s schedule, but I could see a 30-24 win over the Packers — with a tight game in the fourth quarter.
Matt, what about you?
Schneidman: The Packers might be without an All-Pro-caliber cornerback in Jaire Alexander, who hasn’t practiced the first two days this week because of a knee injury suffered Sunday. Standout rookie safety Evan Williams also hasn’t practiced this week as he deals with a hamstring injury he tried playing through in Jacksonville before bowing out in the first half. Goff should be licking his chops, especially if the Lions can get going on the ground and rely on their league-high play-action dropback usage to exploit the Packers through the air. I think the Packers can score on the Lions, but the visitors’ prowess on offense and special teams (Kalif Raymond might give Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia nightmares this week) should be enough to squeak out a six-point win. I’m going Lions 34, Packers 28.
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(Photo: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
