LOS ANGELES — USC sits at 4-4 as it enters the final month of the regular season. The Trojans weren’t viewed as Big Ten title or College Football Playoff contenders before the season, but to be .500 at this stage is still a disappointment.
As USC prepares to play Washington on Saturday, readers have plenty of questions about Lincoln Riley and the state of everything around the program. Let’s get to them.
From what you gather, what will it take for Lincoln to fix this mess? — Taquan J.
Well, let’s start with the simple facts. Since the 11-1 regular season in 2022, Riley is 12-11. That’s just not good enough. That’s fairly black and white.
Riley accomplished a lot at Oklahoma. Three CFP appearances. Four Big 12 titles. Two Heisman Trophy winners. And he had a great first season at USC.
College football — at its core — is a scoreboard business. And the scoreboard results aren’t good enough, and Riley can’t double down on how he’s currently running the program. Because of the nature of Riley’s contract, he and USC are in this together for a while. Self-reflection will be required.
USC is in all of these games. It’s just not finishing well enough and doesn’t do the little things necessary to win tough, hard-fought games consistently. Look at the regular-season loss at Utah in 2022, the Cotton Bowl loss to Tulane or the losses to Minnesota and Maryland this year.
Something structural about the program has to change. The defense seems to be in a good place. The talent level needs to be upgraded, but the coaching staff has been impressive relative to the roster personnel.
Meanwhile, USC’s offense has regressed every season. Riley oversees the whole team, but he’s supposed to be an offensive mastermind. That was his main appeal.
When I spent a week with San Jose State last season, I was amazed at everything then-Spartans coach Brent Brennan had to tend to outside of coaching and sitting in meetings. Head coaches are responsible for a lot. It made me appreciate head coaches who manage all that and still call plays.
Hiring an offensive coordinator might help Riley have a more holistic approach to the team, get some fresh ideas on offense and focus more on situational football.
I also understand that play calling is what got Riley to this point, so he might not want to give it up. But those are my thoughts.
Improving recruiting and elevating the talent level will also be necessary to put the program on an upward trajectory.
How many coaching departures do you see possibly coming after the season ends, whether by their choice or being pushed out? — Khash B.
At the beginning of the season, there was a fear the defense looked so improved that coordinator D’Anton Lynn might be hired away after the season.
I think the defense looks much better, but it’s not elite. It’s in that middle spot where Lynn is clearly good but the defensive improvement isn’t overwhelming enough that he might be a hot DC candidate for some NFL team after the season. I don’t expect anyone on the defensive staff to leave unless one were to land a coordinator role elsewhere.
I think tight ends and running backs are playing well, so Zach Hanson (tight ends) and Anthony Jones (running back) should return. The wideouts have underwhelmed for two seasons, but Riley once told me this about receivers coach Dennis Simmons: “There’s not a person in this business or really on this planet I trust as much professionally as I do him.”
So I don’t expect any movement there or with quarterbacks coach Luke Huard. I think the spotlight falls on offensive line coach Josh Henson. The line was pretty bad for the first half of the season, though it has improved over the past few weeks. Recruiting hasn’t been great, but USC did just land four-star offensive line commit Aaron Dunn.
Has Henson done enough to fend off all the questions that were swirling around about his job status a few weeks ago?
Antonio, give me a few stats about the defense that bring you hope and optimism. Conversely, give me a few stats about the offense that you find troubling. — Ryan S.
USC still lacks ideal talent on defense, but the Trojans are allowing just 21.8 points per game. That’s 44th nationally and a tremendous leap from last season when USC surrendered 34.4 points per game to rank 121st in the FBS. The defense has done enough for the team to win every game.
The third-down defense is encouraging. The Trojans are allowing conversions on 30.5 percent of third downs, 15th nationally. But fourth-down defense has to improve. USC is allowing opponents to convert on 56 percent of their fourth downs, and that’s 81st nationally. And it’s not a small sample; the Trojans have allowed 14 fourth-down conversions, tied for third-most in the country.
As for offense, it’s the lack of explosives. USC has 37 plays of 20-plus yards, 56th in the country. The Trojans were top five in that category the past two years.
The lack of dynamic playmaking was something that popped out at me during the preseason, and that has played out during the season.
And the turnovers stand out. USC has turned it over 11 times, 66th nationally. Miller Moss has committed some untimely turnovers that have proved costly. The Trojans had once-in-a-lifetime turnover fortune in 2022 — their 11-win season — committing seven in 14 games.
They’ve regressed with ball security over the past two years.
Two questions, feel free to take one, both, or neither!
1. Has your perspective of the team changed since the preseason? Your 7-5 record prediction is certainly holding up, as is your assessment that the team had limited depth, and could struggle along the lines. Easy to say with hindsight, but I know you got a lot of flak earlier in the season.
2. What’s more important for the future of the program, to finish the season strong (ex. winning out and beating ND) or finish the recruiting cycle strong (ex. solidly in the top 10, and hold on to Juju Lewis). — Mathieu L.
1. I know what the final scores are and what the record is right now, but USC has played better than I expected, especially on defense. Injuries and a lack of depth will skew how the stats look at the end of the season, but that unit has improved considerably.
The offense has been about what I expected. Except tight end, maybe running back, the offense has less talent at every spot than it did a year ago. The offensive line is what I thought it would be, though it has played a bit better in recent weeks.
The overall record is worse than I expected because USC has found a way to lose winnable games. I expected five losses in the preseason, but I don’t think I expected they’d have four by this point. I just think before the season, some people undersold how losable some of the games against the middle-of-the-road (or below) Big Ten teams such as Minnesota and Maryland and potentially Washington and Nebraska were.
USC lost the first two and desperately needs to win the other two to salvage some good vibes for this season.
2. Finishing recruiting strong. This program simply needs more talent. While finishing the season strong would be a positive, the overall vibes of an 8-4 season will likely be neutral at best.
As we’ve heard ad nauseam, Oregon is hitting So Cal hard and getting several blue-chippers as a result. Now they’re also securing commits from Bishop Gorman (in Las Vegas), so USC’s ineptitude in local recruiting officially extends outside of California. What stops the hemorrhage? — Sir T.
Probably hiring someone with local ties who understands the recruiting landscape in Southern California. Who does USC have on that staff? Recruiting is so much about NIL right now, and the Trojans have to improve or be more aggressive in that regard, but who is the relationship builder in Southern California?
Former DBs coach Donte Williams, who is now at Georgia, did a lot of that in prior years, but I don’t think anyone on this staff has the same ability. I think the attempt last summer to hire Alabama general manager Courtney Morgan, who has deep ties to Southern California, was an effort to address this.
Let’s be honest, no one cares about bowl games anymore. With the season all but over for USC, how do you balance staying competitive and developing younger players for next season? The reps are huge for development. But in the current landscape of college football, momentum is everything. If we lose 2-3 more games, it could put our recruiting efforts in jeopardy. If you’re Lincoln Riley, how would you approach it? — Jeremy O.
I think injuries have kind of forced their hand a bit. Devan Thompkins, Jide Abasiri and Kameryn Fountain are playing more along the defensive line. Desman Stephens is getting snaps at linebacker. If Marcelles Williams wasn’t injured, he’d probably get snaps at corner.
Backup center/guard Gino Quinones is out for the season with an undisclosed injury. Riley said Quinones will be able to return next year for a seventh season. Meanwhile, some of the younger offensive linemen will receive more reps.
I don’t think USC has much of a choice other than trying to be competitive with its younger players.
(Top photo of Lincoln Riley: G Fiume / Getty Images)
