College basketball is upon us, which means it’s time to throw a couple of bucks on some futures bets. Trying to prognosticate and look ahead to determine what will happen throughout the season makes betting on college hoops fun.
Two fun questions I like to start with are: who are the undervalued teams, and why are they undervalued?
I found some betting value in nine picks, which I’ve laid out below. Here are my favorite national title bets, four conference champion picks and two very long-shot National Player of the Year sprinkles that could have plus expected value throughout the year.
Let’s dive into the fun!
Favorite National Title Bets
Alabama (+1200) — Look, Alabama is currently tied as the second-betting favorite to win the title, but I wonder if they’re still being undervalued. I’m not sure that people have recognized this team’s talent level yet. The Tide has something in the ballpark of 10 players that I think would legitimately start for at least half of the high-major teams in the country. Led by Mark Sears, who, for my money, is the best guard in the country, Alabama should have a top-two offense. The team’s big offseason addition was Clifford Omoruyi, a long, big man from Rutgers who has already carried elite defenses in his career. His presence will allow the Tide to be big with Grant Nelson and Omoruyi in the frontcourt or go small with Nelson at the 5, depending on the matchup. They’re loaded on the wings and have a ton of backcourt talent. Plus, Nate Oats’ track record at this point is pretty spectacular. I have them as the clear No. 1 entering the season.
Gonzaga (+1900) — C.J. Moore and I ranked the Zags at No. 3 in the preseason, largely due to the offensive firepower they have at their disposal. Ryan Nembhard was a stud late last season, averaging 13.6 points and 9.2 rebounds over his last 11 games. Gonzaga added more firepower to the wings this season, bringing in senior transfers Khalif Battle and Michael Ajayi. The pitch here is one of the best offenses in the country, led by one of the best guards in the country, plus a loaded frontcourt with three genuine high-major starters in Graham Ike, Ben Gregg and Braden Huff.
Baylor (+2500) — This might be a bit aggressive, but I like the makeup of Baylor’s roster, which could lead to a deep run in March. The Bears may have early growing pains as they try to figure out their frontcourt, but the guards are terrific. Coach Scott Drew and company have a fifth-year starter in Jeremy Roach, a fourth-year breakout candidate in Jayden Nunn, and a potential top-five pick in freshman VJ Edgecombe. They also have Langston Love, who can play anywhere from the 2 through the 4 in this scheme, as well as another elite freshman in Rob Wright III, that scouts have been excited about. The key will be someone in the frontcourt emerging next to Norchad Omier, an All-ACC transfer from Miami (Fla.). Omier has a chance to be an All-American, but Baylor will need one more body.
Favorite Conference Bets
Illinois (+1100 to win Big Ten, also +2000 to make the Final Four) — The Illini are one of my favorite under-the-radar teams in terms of pricing right now, largely because I think their lead guard Kasparas Jakucionis is likely not being properly assessed by the books. Jakucionis isn’t the typical top-40 or so recruit. I think he has a very good shot of being selected in the lottery for the 2025 NBA Draft and will run the show for the Illini offense by the time January rolls around. On top of that, transfer wings Tre White and Ben Humrichous are terrific additions that have played well in the preseason. Tomislav Ivisic is another underrated recruit, a terrific big man who will be productive in the Big Ten from day one. Plus, Brad Underwood is a top-10 coach in the country, for my money. The Big Ten is going to be completely unpredictable this season, but Illinois is currently getting priced as the fifth-best team in the league when I think they actually have more talent than anyone else. I’ll bet on Underwood figuring it out.
Arizona (+850 to win the Big 12 on FanDuel Sportsbook) — All Tommy Lloyd teams do is compete at the top of their leagues. In his three years at Arizona, the team finished first, second and first in the Pac-12. The team is loaded with talent this year. The Wildcats have a great backcourt with returning Pac-12 Player of the Year Caleb Love and a pair of terrific guards in Jaden Bradley and K.J. Lewis. Motiejus Krivas is a good breakout candidate in this scheme in the frontcourt, but even if he doesn’t totally emerge, Arizona also has a great backup option in Henri Veesaar, as well as Tennessee transfer Tobe Awaka. The wings are strong. Additionally, while I love Houston, I’m not quite as high on Kansas this year and think Iowa State has potential variance on the offensive end. I’d have Arizona at No. 2 in the league, and they’re being priced at a solid number as the fourth-best team.
San Diego State (+450 to win the Mountain West on DraftKings Sportsbook) — Coach Brian Dutcher has been about as successful as one can be over the last five years. The Aztecs are consistently among the best defensive teams in the league. He’s proven the ability better than any other coach in the league to re-tool around his losses. The Mountain West was decimated by transfers, with Boise losing Chibuzo Agbo, New Mexico losing JT Toppin and Jamal Mashburn Jr., and Utah State losing Great Osobor. The Aztecs weren’t an exception, losing Micah Parrish and Lamont Butler in addition to leading scorer Jaedon LeDee. But San Diego State has been very impressive in preseason, beating UCLA. The Aztecs recruited well in the portal, getting Florida Atlantic University guard Nick Boyd and All-WCC guard Wayne McKinney III. In the Mountain West, I believe most in San Diego State’s defense, which should keep them in the title picture.
Saint Joseph’s (+1000 to win the Atlantic 10 on FanDuel Sportsbook) — The A-10 has a chance to be a multi-bid league this year and is loaded with talent. No team is more stacked with talent than the Hawks under Billy Lange. Lange has been hit or miss thus far since taking over from legend Phil Martelli, but he can make a leap this year due to the presence of three potential pros on the roster. Erik Reynolds II is a two-time All-A-10 guard who is among the more dynamic returning scorers in the country. Sophomore Xzayvier Brown is a tremendous shooter and distributor in the backcourt beside him. Then, on top of it, the Hawks kept Rasheer Fleming, a supreme athlete at 6-foot-9 with extremely long arms who continues to get better every season. Scouts who have gone to the Philadelphia area have been more impressed with Saint Joe’s long-term talent than they have been with Villanova’s. The only concern is whether Lange can bring it all together. I’ll take the bet at 10-to-1 on talent here.
Our @TheAthleticCBB preseason All-Americans, featuring:
– Three Big East players, more than any other league
– The only returning First-Teamer from last season
– Only one consensus choiceDeep dive, and reasoning why, here:https://t.co/1HTb0D7mSx
— Brendan Marks (@BrendanRMarks) October 29, 2024
National Player of the Year Bets
Ryan Nembhard (+10000 at PointsBet Sportsbook) — As mentioned above, I love Gonzaga this year, and Nembhard is the player who stirs the drink. If the Zags can go on a big run, it will happen because their lead guard gets them in and out of their sets. Nembhard was the team’s best player by the end of the year, and I see him as a real All-American pick entering the season. If the jumper comes along for him like it did for his brother Andrew, he has every chance to be a dominant player. Essentially, you probably should invest any time you can get the best player on what I think is a top-five team at 100-to-1.
Kadary Richmond (+7500 at DraftKings Sportsbook) — Richmond is a returning first-team All-Big East player who put up huge numbers last season, averaging 16 points, seven rebounds and five assists. Now, he moves to a Saint John’s team with a chance to contend in the Big East — this number seems too high if coach Rick Pitino can figure out all the pieces and make them fit.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb for The Athletic; Photos: Ed Mulholland / Getty Images, Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire / AP Photo)
