You’re a college football coach and you sign a five-star quarterback out of high school. You’re set at the position for the foreseeable future, right?
Think again.
There have never been more ways to scout young quarterbacks — from Elite 11 camps to seven-on-seven tournaments to on-campus showcases — yet it remains the most difficult position to evaluate in the sport.
Even among the best of the best, there are more misses than hits.
Of the 31 five-star quarterbacks in the 10 recruiting cycles from 2014 through 2023, 20 transferred at least one time and five transferred at least twice. And in the current climate — with NIL and immediate eligibility for transfers — those numbers are showing no signs of slowing down.
Here’s the most telling stat: Only nine of those 31 five-stars started at least two seasons for the school they signed with (though Nico Iamaleava will join that list next season assuming he remains at Tennessee).
Here’s a look at the journeys of each of the five-star quarterbacks signed during that 10-year span.
Note: All rankings are from the 247Sports Composite. For quarterbacks who had more than one stop in the NFL, the graphic shows only their first team.
Kyle Allen, a Scottsdale, Ariz., native, signed with Texas A&M and started 14 games over his two seasons with the Aggies. He supplanted Kenny Hill as the starter in 2014 and was benched for Kyler Murray at one point in 2015. Allen transferred to Houston and earned the starting role for the Cougars in 2017 but was benched early that season. Despite being undrafted, Allen has started 19 NFL games and has attempted more passes in the pros (705) than in college (580).
Josh Rosen, who starred at St. John Bosco in Southern California, won the starting job at UCLA as a true freshman and passed for 9,341 yards with 59 touchdowns and 26 interceptions in three seasons with the Bruins. He was selected 10th overall by Arizona in the 2018 NFL Draft and started 13 games as a rookie. The Cardinals, however, drafted Kyler Murray No. 1 overall the next year and traded Rosen to Miami. He is now out of the NFL.
Blake Barnett, a Corona, Calif., native, started Alabama’s season opener as a redshirt freshman in 2016 but was soon beat out by true freshman Jalen Hurts. After a stop at a junior college, Barnett landed at Arizona State in 2017 (five pass attempts) and then South Florida in 2018. He started 10 games in 2018 but struggled in 2019 and never regained the job after suffering an ankle injury early that season.
Kyler Murray was a prolific quarterback at Allen High School in Texas but didn’t get an opportunity to show the full scope of his talent until 2018. He was involved in the QB mess with Allen at Texas A&M and transferred to Oklahoma after one season in College Station. He sat behind Baker Mayfield in 2017 and then started for the Sooners in 2018, passing for 4,361 yards, rushing for 1,001 and accounting for 54 total touchdowns en route to winning the Heisman Trophy. He was drafted No. 1 overall by the Cardinals in 2019 and has been their starter ever since.
Shea Patterson signed with Ole Miss while it was in the middle of a major NCAA investigation and started 10 games over his two seasons in Oxford. He was productive when healthy, but his sophomore season was cut short by injury. He transferred to Michigan after Ole Miss received a bowl ban and was put on probation. In two seasons with the Wolverines, Patterson passed for 5,661 yards, 45 touchdowns and 15 interceptions and won 19 games. He went undrafted in 2020 and spent this past season in the CFL.
Jacob Eason, a Washington native, started 12 games as a true freshman at Georgia in 2016. He was the starter in 2017 but suffered an injury, which opened the door for Jake Fromm, who stepped into the starting role and never relinquished it. Eason transferred to Washington and started in 2019, the final year of the Chris Petersen era. He threw for 3,132 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions in his lone season with the Huskies. Eason was selected by the Colts in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft but is currently not on a team.
Davis Mills sat behind K.J. Costello during his first few years at Stanford and didn’t earn his first start until early in 2019. He played in just 14 games in his college career, throwing for 3,468 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He played well during the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season and declared for the NFL Draft. Mills was selected by the Texans in the third round and has started 26 games in his three-plus season.
Hunter Johnson played sparingly in his first two seasons at Clemson. Kelly Bryant was the established starter in 2017 and Trevor Lawrence arrived in 2018, so Johnson transferred to Northwestern. He started five games in 2019 but never earned the full-time starting role with the Wildcats. He transferred back to Clemson in 2022 and threw just six passes. He’s one of the few transfers Dabo Swinney has brought into the program in the portal era.
Tua Tagovailoa had the most dramatic introduction to the college football world imaginable. As a true freshman, he came off the bench to replace Hurts in the national championship game and threw a game-winning touchdown pass in overtime to beat Georgia. He beat out Hurts for the starting role in 2018, finished second to Murray in Heisman Trophy voting and led the Crimson Tide to the national title game. He was prolific in 2019 but suffered a season-ending hip injury late in the year that ended his Alabama career prematurely. Tagovailoa declared for the draft and went fifth overall to the Dolphins.
Trevor Lawrence was anointed as the next great QB prospect early in his high school career and lived up to the hype at Clemson. During his true freshman season, he supplanted Bryant — who took the Tigers to the College Football Playoff the previous season — and led Clemson to a 15-0 record and national championship in 2018. The Tigers reached the CFP the following two seasons and Lawrence was the Heisman runner-up in 2020. He was drafted first overall by the Jaguars in 2021.
Justin Fields signed with the home-state Georgia Bulldogs, but the path to playing time was unclear because Fromm was only a sophomore. Fields played sparingly as a true freshman then transferred to Ohio State, where he thrived and led the Buckeyes to the College Football Playoff in 2019 and 2020. He finished in the top seven in Heisman voting both years. Fields was drafted 11th overall by the Bears in 2021 and is currently a backup for the Steelers.
JT Daniels was viewed by some as USC’s next great quarterback even before he took a snap in college. He was the starter as a true freshman but was inconsistent, throwing 14 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. He opened 2019 as the starter but tore his ACL in the opener. Kedon Slovis stepped into the lineup and excelled. Daniels entered the transfer portal in the spring of 2020 and landed at Georgia. He eventually settled in as the starter late in the 2020 season and led the Bulldogs to a Peach Bowl win. He began the 2021 season as the starter, but injuries opened the door for Stetson Bennett to claim the starting role — and the former walk-on led the Bulldogs to the first of two consecutive national championships. Daniels transferred to West Virginia in 2022 and was named the starter but eventually lost the job to Garrett Greene. He transferred to Rice for the 2023 season but suffered a concussion and medically retired. He is now an offensive analyst at FCS West Georgia.
Spencer Rattler, a Phoenix native, backed up Hurts at Oklahoma in 2019 before earning first-team All-Big-12 honors as a redshirt freshman the following season. He lost his job to true freshman Caleb Williams in October 2021 and entered the portal a few days after the Sooners’ final regular-season game. He started 25 games in two seasons at South Carolina and is now with the New Orleans Saints.
Bo Nix was one of the most celebrated recruits in Auburn history — an in-state product from Pinson Valley High School and, more importantly, the son of former Tigers QB Patrick Nix. He earned the starting job as a true freshman, but it was a rocky — though entertaining — three years on the Plains. He bolted after Year 1 of the Bryan Harsin era and started for two seasons at Oregon before becoming a first-round pick of the Denver Broncos.
As a true freshman, Bryce Young sat behind Mac Jones in 2020. He became the starter in 2021 and had the best individual season for any quarterback in Alabama history. He passed for 4,872 yards and 47 touchdowns (with just seven interceptions) and won the Heisman as he guided the Crimson Tide to the national championship game. He passed for 3,328 yards and 32 touchdowns with just five picks in 2022, and Alabama won the Sugar Bowl. He was selected No. 1 overall by the Carolina Panthers in the 2023 draft.
DJ Uiagalelei and Young played for rival high schools in Southern California — Mater Dei and St. John Bosco — and were often compared to one another. Uiagalelei showed great promise as a true freshman, particularly in a relief start at Notre Dame in 2020. When he was inserted into the starting role at Clemson full time, though, his play regressed. Uiagalelei started for the Tigers in 2021 and 2022, but the offense never reached the levels it did under Lawrence. Uiagalelei played one season at Oregon State and landed at Florida State this past offseason. He opened the year as the starter but struggled and eventually suffered a season-ending finger injury.
Quinn Ewers, who played for Southlake (Texas) Carroll, was the No. 1 quarterback in this cycle even though he was originally part of the 2022 class. He reclassified, in part, to receive NIL money earlier in his career. His path to playing time at Ohio State was blocked by C.J. Stroud and others. He transferred to Texas after the 2021 season and has been the Longhorns’ starter for the past three years. Ewers has been solid when healthy, but he’s been banged up in parts of each season. Still, he’s led the Longhorns to two College Football Playoff appearances.
Caleb Williams was the No. 1 QB prospect until Ewers reclassified. He had the most productive college career of any quarterback in this class. He spent his true freshman season at Oklahoma and surprisingly supplanted Rattler as the starter in the middle of the season. Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley took the USC job in November 2021 and Williams followed him to Los Angeles two months later. Their first year together with the Trojans was prolific. Williams won the Heisman and nearly took the Trojans to the College Football Playoff. USC regressed in Williams’ junior season, and he faced a lot more adversity while the spotlight intensified. He finished his career with 93 touchdown passes (to just 14 interceptions) and also rushed for 27 touchdowns. The Chicago Bears drafted him No. 1 overall this past April.
Sam Huard was the No. 12 overall player in the class and was a significant signing for then-Washington coach Jimmy Lake. The Huskies offense struggled mightily in 2021, and Huard was thrown into the fire in the season finale against Washington State. He completed 17 of 31 passes for 190 yards, a touchdown and four interceptions in a 40-13 loss at home. The Huskies made a coaching change, and new coach Kalen DeBoer landed transfer Michael Penix Jr. out of the portal. Huard was the third-team quarterback in 2022 and then transferred to FCS Cal Poly and reunited with his high school coach, Sheldon Cross, the Mustangs offensive coordinator. Cross left for Stetson after the 2023 season, and Huard transferred to Utah. He didn’t play a snap for the Utes and underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in October. He is back in the portal.
Brock Vandagriff was initially committed to Oklahoma but flipped to Georgia, which opened the door for Williams and Riley to unite. Vandagriff attempted just 21 passes in three seasons at Georgia and transferred to Kentucky in the offseason. The Wildcats struggled offensively this season, and Vandagriff posted pedestrian passing stats (144.8 yards per game, 10 touchdowns, eight interceptions). He has one season of eligibility remaining.
J.J. McCarthy signed with Michigan and was rotated into games as a true freshman before overtaking Cade McNamara as the starter a few games into the 2022 season. McCarthy never posted prolific numbers, but he didn’t have to because Michigan’s run game and defense were dominant. McCarthy won more than any quarterback in this class, finishing his career with a 27-1 record as a starter and leading the Wolverines to a national championship in 2023. He was a first-round pick of the Vikings this past April but missed the season due to a knee injury.
Kyle McCord was one of the quarterbacks blocking Ewers’ path to playing time at Ohio State. McCord sat for two years behind Stroud and earned the starting job in 2023. He played well as Ohio State’s starter (3,170 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and six interceptions) but wasn’t as dynamic as Stroud or Fields before him. So the Buckeyes looked to upgrade at the position and McCord transferred to Syracuse. It’s worked out quite well. McCord leads the nation with 360.5 passing yards per game for the 9-3 Orange, who will play Washington State in the Holiday Bowl.
Cade Klubnik sat behind Uiagalelei for most of his freshman year but took over the starting job late in the season. He’s held that role ever since. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Tigers offense has taken a much-needed step forward with him at the helm this season.
Conner Weigman was poised to be Texas A&M’s quarterback of the future and displayed some promise in his first two years, but injuries cut his second season short. He entered 2024 as the starter but got hurt again and eventually lost his job to redshirt freshman Marcel Reed. He entered the transfer portal and signed with Houston.
Ty Simpson has spent the past three seasons in a reserve role at Alabama and has attempted a total of 50 passes for 381 yards.
Drew Allar sat behind Sean Clifford as a true freshman in 2022 and has been Penn State’s starter for the past two seasons. He passed for 2,631 yards, 25 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his first year as a starter, but the Nittany Lions offense looked hopeless in its biggest games. Allar has thrived under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki this season but the offense still needs to play better in big games. Allar recently announced he will return to Penn State for his senior season.
There was so much intrigue and mystery around Arch Manning’s recruitment. He didn’t conduct many interviews and didn’t participate in any high-profile recruiting events. Manning signed with the Longhorns and has been Ewers’ backup for the past two seasons. He has played well when called upon — either as a starter for an injured Ewers or as a change-of-pace option due to his athleticism. Assuming Ewers departs for the NFL after this season, Manning will be the starter in 2025.
Nico Iamaleava received a lot of attention for the NIL deal he received during his recruiting process. He was Joe Milton’s backup as a true freshman but earned a start in Tennessee’s bowl game and rushed for three scores. The 2024 season has been Iamaleava’s first as a full-time starter. The Volunteers won 10 games and reached the College Football Playoff, but Iamaleava and the passing game have been inconsistent.
Dante Moore surprised the recruiting world when he signed with UCLA after being committed to Oregon. It only took one game for him to earn the starting role as a true freshman, but it wasn’t a great offensive situation and Moore struggled. He completed just 53.5 percent of his passes and threw for 1,610 yards, 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions and was benched midway through the season. Moore entered the portal after the 2023 regular season and transferred to Oregon, where he is Dillon Gabriel’s backup.
Gabriel was the starter at Oklahoma and performed well in two seasons in Norman, but it was clear the staff wanted to move on to Jackson Arnold. The Texas native threw three interceptions in an Alamo Bowl loss to Arizona in his first career start. He was benched after four games this season as the OU offense struggled. Arnold regained his starting role late in the year but entered the portal and signed with Auburn.
Malachi Nelson was a mid-year enrollee at USC but arrived coming off surgery on his non-throwing shoulder. That hampered the early portion of his time with the Trojans and he never beat out Miller Moss for the backup role in 2023. When it became clear Riley would look for a transfer to bolster the position, Nelson entered the portal and landed at Boise State. He was the presumptive favorite to be the Broncos starter but lost the competition to Maddux Madsen. He is back in the transfer portal.
(Graphics: Drew Jordan for The Athletic; Top illustration: Meech Robinson for The Athletic; Photos: Ian Maule, Charles McQuillan, Ezra Shaw, Brett Deering / Getty Images)
