STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — We’ve arrived at the portion of Penn State’s schedule that everyone has looked forward to.
There’s no hiding anymore, no “But who have they really played?” questions to wade through. This is the month when College Football Playoff contenders get separated from pretenders. After a Saturday full of upsets, the fact that No. 4 Penn State is still undefeated after Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee, Michigan and USC all lost on Saturday is nothing to scoff at.
Penn State is 5-0 for the fourth time in as many years making it the only FBS program to do so. Climbing to No. 4 in the AP poll marks the first time Penn State has done so since October 2021. While Nittany Lion fans would rather not remember how that season unfolded after a trip to then-No. 3 Iowa began a downward spiral, this season sets up differently. While Saturday’s trip to USC — which dropped from No. 11 to out of the poll this week after losing to Minnesota — won’t be the potential top-10 showdown it could’ve been, there’s still much at stake for Penn State.
There’s a consistency to what James Franklin has built here and now is the chance to build off it. As corny as the 1-0 each week mantra might be — it’s plastered everywhere in the football building and on players’ T-shirts — there’s value in it. Penn State may not pull off as many upsets as folks would like, but more often than not it’s also not on the other end of it. It’s weeks like this, headed on the road to play USC where the 1-0 mindset should be top of mind for a Penn State program with a wild month ahead.
The mantra was put in place so Penn State’s approach would stay consistent whether it’s playing a top-10 team or a team that’s desperate for a win. While USC is now the latter, Penn State can take a lesson from Alabama and Tennessee. There’s no such thing as an easy week in college football.
Buckle up for a month that’s going to make or break Penn State’s College Football Playoff bid.
Here’s what I think I know as Penn State preps for USC.
1. The two biggest issues have been identified
If Penn State is going to stumble it’s likely going to be because of a slow start — the first quarter on both sides of the ball has been an issue — or because of the linebacker play. Kobe King and Tony Rojas, Penn State’s top two linebackers, are not the issue. The challenge is when the Nittany Lions get that third linebacker on the field. Ideally, they’d be able to rely on the talent in the secondary and move around versatile safety Jaylen Reed, but when teams want to pound the ball against them — which Ohio State probably will — they need to have that third linebacker on the field. DaKaari Nelson, a safety turned linebacker this offseason, will have much on his plate moving forward. The depth in the linebacking corps is thin. The best solution is that Nelson, redshirt freshman Ta’Mere Robinson and true freshman Anthony Speca all take steps forward quickly to help. Still, that’s a tall ask for a team that came into the season thin at linebacker. Besides King and Rojas there should be some concern.
The slow starts have Franklin’s attention too. The head coach went out of his way to lament an opening quarter against UCLA in which Penn State ran 10 plays for 28 yards and only possessed the ball for 4 minutes and 53 seconds. Penn State failed to convert a pair of third downs during the opening quarter and after winning the toss and taking the ball went three and out. Yes, the offense wasn’t at full strength, but it wasn’t sharp early on either. When the margin of error shrinks these lulls get magnified.
The Penn State defense has largely been superb this season. If there’s one area of the game that’s created pause it’s been that opening quarter. Bowling Green came out and delivered a quick punch with a touchdown. Illinois did the same. UCLA, with a backup quarterback, drove 46 yards to the Penn State 23 before bypassing a field goal attempt and losing a yard on fourth-and-1. Seemingly after that opening quarter, when the defense makes adjustments, everything settles down.
2. There’s confidence about this offense that starts at the top
Shortly after the Peach Bowl ended, Marques Hagans instructed his wide receivers to break their huddles differently. Knowing the questions that would surround his position group in the offseason — one that’s stepped up this season with multiple players gaining Drew Allar’s trust — Hagans wanted the receivers to break their huddle on the phrase “best in the nation.”
It’s a theme that resonated with the entire offense, which ranks 22nd nationally in total offense and has shown drastic improvement, especially with explosive plays. No, this isn’t the best receiving corps in the country or the best offense, but this is an offense with powerful running backs, a weapon at tight end and a much-improved quarterback who looks Playoff caliber.
“We break it down on ‘best in the nation’ every single day,” wide receiver Liam Clifford said of his position group. “It’s something if we’re gonna talk about it we obviously want to talk it into existence. So just continue to strive to be the best, whether it’s in the pass game, the run game, whatever week, each week’s a little different for us.”
Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s positivity and creativity have resonated with this group. As running backs coach Ja’Juan Seider put it this week when I asked what it’s like game planning with Kotelnicki, his answer had more to do with intangibles than schematics. Both aspects have shined thus far.
“He’s not uptight,” Seider said. “He has a personality. You don’t have to feel like it’s fourth-and-inches every time you walk in a meeting. … On offense, it’s all about confidence. If you’re uptight or you’re pressing and you’re forcing issues in the passing game, the run game, well everybody feels that. Now, there’s a sense of calm like your preparation allows you to be confident and that’s what we preach.”
When Allar spoke this week he said going into games he feels like he’s “the most prepared quarterback in the country.” If there’s concern that Penn State is going to be too uptight for a big game or that Allar is going to revert to the quarterback who looked scared to make a mistake last season, I struggle to see it.
This group confidence-wise is night and day from last year. It looks that way on the field and their actions off it have aligned. The last Penn State team I covered that oozed with confidence like this ended up overcoming its slow starts, getting hot with an explosive offense and winning the Big Ten. Whether one puts any stock in such things or not, the vibes around this offense and the buy-in with the offensive coordinator remind me of that 2016 group.
3. Penn State can win in the trenches. I’m not sure USC can
Watching on TV as Minnesota went toe-to-toe with Lincoln Riley’s team and then delivered the go-ahead touchdown late, it was clear USC has some issues in both trenches. USC’s offensive line will have its hands full with a Penn State pass rush that should be licking its chops. Miller Moss will need to quickly get rid of the football or else Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton might make this a long night for the home team. There will be plenty of eyes nationally on this matchup and Carter and Dennis-Sutton might be the biggest mismatch for USC.
Now, the challenge here is that Penn State lacks depth at defensive end. Jameial Lyons was dismissed from the university in August. Zuriah Fisher is dealing with a long-term injury. Smith Vilbert and Amin Vanover have both played quite a bit, but neither has had that breakout moment yet this year. However, the starting duo of Dennis-Sutton and Carter should force USC to use help to try and chip them. Penn State can move Carter around and how it deploys such a chess piece will be fascinating to see.
As for Penn State’s offensive line, the biggest question this week will be the health of starting right tackle Anthony Donkoh who exited the UCLA game with an apparent shoulder injury. Penn State’s offensive line has been a big reason why this offense is allowing Allar time to push the ball down the field and Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen have been able to shred most opponents. Without Donkoh, Nolan Rucci would be thrust into a starting spot.
4. Penn State looks ready for what should be a desperate USC team
Penn State’s first five opponents are a combined 10-15 this season. The Nittany Lions’ next five (USC, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Washington and Purdue) are 16-10. Let’s not forget that Penn State still has to play at Minnesota in late November, too. PJ Fleck’s program nearly toppled Michigan last week and now is riding high after upsetting USC. Washington, which comes to Beaver Stadium on Nov. 9, made a statement Saturday by beating Michigan 27-17. The road ahead is not easy for Penn State.
But, I’ve seen enough from this offense to believe tight end Tyler Warren, these running backs and an improving wide receiving corps are enough for Penn State to work with heading into this critical stretch. Kotelnicki has shown there’s not anything he’s unwilling to try, either. At some point this season I’m convinced 6-foot-4, 348-pound offensive lineman Vega Ioane is getting the football in his hands. And, while the Beau Pribula package will continue to be polarizing for some, it’s not going to disappear.
What we haven’t seen is what the Penn State defense does against a quarterback like Moss. If this pass rush can exploit a struggling USC offensive line then it might not matter what Moss is capable of. If not? Penn State’s linebacker play might get exposed. Keep in mind USC will be desperate. With two losses already this is a gut-check moment for Riley and his program. The Trojans might be a little more inclined to take more risks given their record.
Penn State has navigated the season well so far and now it’s time to find out what the ceiling is for this team.
(Top photo of Jalen Berger: Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)
