By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman
If the Toronto Maple Leafs had beaten the Boston Bruins in Game 7 of their first-round series, what would’ve changed?
Is Sheldon Keefe still behind the bench? Does Mitch Marner sign a contract extension sometime in August? Would their spot as the No. 2 team in our projections seem a little less incongruous?
At least one of those questions gets a “yes.” Instead, the Maple Leafs took a step back — and a step closer to the end of … something. Once again, they’re icing one of the league’s most talented teams. Once again, they’ll try to translate it into something that matters.
The projection
Every year Toronto is graded as one of the league’s best teams. While the Leafs come close during the season, they look anything but during the playoffs.
It’s tough to sell, “Hey, maybe this year will be different!” when every year is exactly the same, but the Leafs have a chance to actually make that so this season. Toronto still has its regular-season fastball, the Core Four, and has made sizable improvements on defense and in net.
That has Toronto’s odds going back in the right direction after a dip last season, pushing the Leafs to the second-highest projected point total in the league. According to the model, they’re the team to beat in the East.
The key for the Leafs will be making due on that promise and avoiding the dreaded 2-3 matchup in the Atlantic. Winning the division is the first step to showing this time might be different and the Leafs are a coin-flip to do just that.
The Leafs will always be judged on what happens after, though. Until they pull something off when it counts, it’s hard to look at favorable odds like these with anything but indifference.
The big question
Is Joseph Woll the answer between the pipes?
Toronto — for now, at least — has pinned its goaltending hopes primarily on Joseph Woll, a 26-year-old about to start his sixth professional season. It’s not tough to understand why; Woll checks some boxes, both in general and specifically relating to the Leafs. We’ll start with those.
The biggest, most important one: He was pretty good last season. In 25 NHL games, he put up a .907 save percentage, four points higher than league average, and a little less than nine goals saved above expected. The latter, if he were to keep the same pace over a typical starter’s workload, would put him in the top 15. For the first eight weeks of the season, he was even better, putting up a .916 save percentage and 8.83 GSAx in his 15 starts — a continuation of the ability he briefly flaunted the year prior when he posted a .932 over seven games. Based on numbers alone, he’s worth taking a shot on as a 1A.
Woll also was outstanding in the playoffs, stopping 54 of the 56 shots he faced and winning both of his first-round starts against the Boston Bruins, each by a score of 2-1. On both nights, the Leafs were facing elimination. If Woll were a little less good, the Leafs would’ve never made it to Game 7. The roster, as you might have heard, isn’t exactly flush with clutch postseason performers and Woll, small as the sample size may be, showed some positive signs in that department.
Maybe most importantly for the Leafs, Woll is exceedingly cheap this season ($766,676 cap hit). He signed an extension over the summer that’ll kick in for the 2025-26 season — and if he indeed becomes a viable 1A goalie, rather than simply looking the part at times, he’ll still be cheap, counting $3.67 million against the cap through 2027-28.
All of that should sound great to Leafs fans. Logically, it all tracks. The single biggest issue with Woll — the caveat that makes planning to rely on him this season and the three that follow an actual risk — is he cannot seem to stay healthy. That strong 15-game start last season? Derailed by a high-ankle sprain. Once he returned at the end of February, after nearly three months on the shelf, he put up an .890 save percentage and broke even on goals GSAx the rest of the way.
Those two outstanding starts against the Bruins? He would’ve had a chance to make them a trio, had he not injured his back in the closing seconds of Game 6. Ilya Samsonov returned to the net for Game 7 and, despite saving 30 of 32 shots, took the loss.
The main issue for Toronto (and Woll) is that seasons like that have become the rule rather than the exception. Overall, he appeared in just 83 games during his first four seasons in the minors, missing plenty of time along the way with injuries. It concerned GM Brad Treliving enough to note after the season that while the team believed in Woll, they also needed to find a way to keep him healthy. That meant offseason changes, as detailed by Josh Kloke in late September:
Working with Sally Belanger, a Leafs consultant who specializes in neuromuscular recruitment (“Pilates on steroids,” Woll said), the goalie came to understand which muscles are and aren’t working, where he’s overcompensating with his movements and how to make the whole puzzle come together properly. The idea is Woll will be able to make improved choices both in his training habits and in goal. A longer season than he’s used to could follow.
“From the first time I got back on the ice, it translated,” Woll said. “I felt like I stayed ‘on’ more in the crease. Things like that are important for longevity.”
It’s important for the short term, too. Whether it’s Woll, Anthony Stolarz — whose injury history is even longer — or both, the Leafs are relying on the health of goaltenders who typically can’t stay healthy. They’re good players, and the risk makes sense. That doesn’t mean it’s any less real.
The wild card
Is Chris Tanev the answer on the back end?
Chris Tanev looks to be exactly what the Maple Leafs need this season. He’s an elite shutdown defenseman who should solidify Toronto’s top pair and blue line overall. Tanev’s plus-5 Defensive Rating is the standout number — one of the best marks in hockey and exactly what the Leafs have been missing.
He’s a reliable scoring-chance suppressor and the way he goes about it is what makes him an especially good fit for the Leafs. Yes, he’s traditionally good at actually defending, but it’s his work with it in the defensive zone as a high-end puck-mover that’s so intriguing. Tanev puts in the work in his own end to retrieve pucks to regain possession and often exits the zone with control to start pushing play back up the ice. He obviously isn’t a prolific scorer on the back end by any means, but he offers extensive help shifting his team from defense to offense and getting the puck moving in the right direction.
All of that was put on display last postseason against the Golden Knights and Avalanche. Despite having to see a lot of Jack Eichel and Nathan MacKinnon, Dallas earned a 55 percent expected goal rate and held a 13-10 edge in scoring with Tanev on the ice. That consistency in Tanev’s game, despite the pressure of a playoff environment, is key for a team like the Maple Leafs.
The main problem with Tanev is he’s 34 years old and his playing style leads to a lot of wear and tear. While he’s a warrior who plays through a lot of those injuries, any age-related decline could happen soon and suddenly. That makes it imperative for the Leafs to get the most out of Tanev’s utility as quickly as possible. He may have signed a six-year deal, but it’s this year that will matter most.
The strengths
Whether William Nylander plays center (where the Leafs have the best center depth in the league) or wing (where the Leafs have the best 1-2 punch at right wing) doesn’t matter for our purposes. Toronto’s biggest strength is the same: the Core Four. There aren’t many forward quartets that match the sheer value that’s created by Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and of course Nylander.
Nylander’s emergence last year as not just a star, but a superstar is a game-changer for the Leafs. He entered the “franchise” tier for good reason this year and it’s thanks to his ability to raise the bar last year with his elite vision and puck-carrying instincts. Few players create as many chances as he does and enter the zone as efficiently. He’s among the league’s elite in that regard and last year showcased his ability as a true driver with a career season.
While the ideal place to make this lineup work likely features Nylander at center, there are questions regarding whether Nylander can handle the defensive responsibilities that come with the job. Both Matthews and Tavares grade out well there and do extensive work in the defensive zone retrieving pucks, an area Nylander historically isn’t particularly involved in. It’s about the details and though Nylander showed a lot more off-puck substance last year, there’s a reason he hasn’t been trusted down the middle before. It’s probably the reason he wasn’t given a lot of runway this year either. (Hint: maybe put the Selke-nominated winger next to him).
Having one of Matthews, Nylander or Tavares on the ice at all times in the top nine would be a significant advantage no team could match, one that could’ve elevated all the wingers around them. Still, the team holds an advantage in the top six if they stack the deck as usual with two dynamic duos: Matthews with Marner and Nylander with Tavares.
That’s led by Matthews, a perennial MVP candidate for his extremely rare blend of goal-scoring and defensive ability. There’s no one like him and he enters the year with the second-highest projected Net Rating thanks mostly to that defensive edge over MacKinnon.
He does it all and he does it all well, and with a “C” etched on his jersey the Leafs are now officially his team. It remains to be seen how that newfound responsibility sits with him, but it doesn’t change what’s always been true: the Leafs go as far as he goes. As one of the league’s best players, he’s why the Leafs are always in the conversation amongst the league’s top teams.
The team’s disappointment is also his to bear though, especially with how disappointing he’s comparatively looked come playoff time. A new coach may change that, for him and for the team. But at some point, Matthews will have to actually prove it when it matters.
The same is true for Marner. While he’s still rated extremely highly among wingers, he has a lot to prove after struggling last season. Some of that was the fault of an injury-riddled season, but in all, he just didn’t have that same dynamic pop as usual. At his best, Marner is one of the most electric players on the ice; last year he short-circuited. He too, of course, comes with plenty of playoff baggage. Still, it’s hard to deny the magic when that duo works together. Over the last three seasons, Matthews and Marner have outscored teams 136-84 with a 61 percent expected goals rate to boot. There aren’t many duos that can do the same.
On the other hand — while Tavares and Nylander look good together on paper, they’ve struggled to have that same success. Over the same time frame, they’ve earned 56 percent of the expected goals together, but have been outscored 92-78. Both seem to do much better away from each other and it’s one reason that shifting Nylander to center felt like a move that could unlock the team’s full potential. Tavares, despite all his detractors, is still a very effective player who can generate chances and drive play well to a strong degree. He gets 55 percent of the chances like clockwork and has historically shown an innate chemistry with lesser wingers. That can serve the Leafs really well in the bottom six with Nick Robertson and Bobby McMann, two on-the-rise wingers with some offensive instinct. It just doesn’t seem to work with Nylander.
The Core Four is very good, but there’s more juice to be squeezed there. With that group being the team’s main strength, the Leafs need all four firing on all cylinders with no diminishing returns. Especially when it matters most.
Further down the forward depth chart, Max Domi returns and carries some strong offensive instincts that can dominate sheltered minutes, or complement one of the team’s stars — wherever he ends up. He’s flexible … offensively anyway. The team has a lot of capable bottom-six options that make filling a lineup card tricky at the moment. Pontus Holmberg is a solid fourth liner and this doesn’t even include Connor Dewar who has strong defensive instincts. At the very least, that should mean significantly less Ryan Reaves this season. Should. That would be vital addition by subtraction.
In net, Samsonov is gone and the Woll era has begun. While he doesn’t yet grade out as an above-average starter, the model is high on him based on what he’s shown in a limited sample and his age. With Stolarz pushing him as the 1B, the Leafs have an eye-popping plus-eight Net Rating between the pipes that ranks fifth.
That has more to do with having two solid options, with Stolarz’s numbers also looking really strong over the last few seasons, albeit also in a limited sample. It’s a high-risk bet, but one that could come with a very high reward.
Life will be a lot easier for them this season thanks to the addition of Tanev. He could be the answer to the Rielly problem on the team and give the Leafs a legitimate shutdown option. Jake McCabe also factors into that equation and was a defensive rock for the Leafs last season. That’s the kind of strong defensive backbone the Leafs have been missing during this era.
If the team’s stars keep shining, the blue line looks steadier and the goaltending pans out as expected, the Leafs will be a very tough team to beat. Their strengths remain very strong.
The weaknesses
That doesn’t mean the team’s weaknesses aren’t glaring.
The Leafs have a lot of holes. A lot more holes than a team rated as the second-best reasonably should — and that’s likely a driving factor as to why many aren’t nearly as high on them going into the season. Though they’ve cleaned things up, the Leafs still have a top-heavy lineup.
Matthew Knies has terrific potential to be the elite grinder Matthews and Marner historically work well with and he was a beast at pressuring the puck last season. But he still has work to do to establish himself as an everyday top-six player. Domi, as nice as he is offensively, remains a mess without the puck. He was a revelation with Matthews last season, although we know who drove the bus there. Robertson has shown some drive in the preseason and still has potential, but he hasn’t proven anything in an elevated role. The old Max Pacioretty probably isn’t coming to the phone anymore either.
With the Nylander-center experiment over and Tavares back up to the second line, it’s also difficult to find a way to make all the pieces fit. There’s no clear-cut 3C with Domi being a liability and Holmberg likely not being capable at that level. Despite that, somehow, the threat of Reaves and his minus-14 Net Rating (!) lingers. A fourth line with David Kämpf flanked by Reaves and Steven Lorentz would be the league’s worst — a lesson the team should’ve learned last year during the worst season of this era. The margins matter.
On the back end, the right side may look stronger at the moment (though the potential absence of Timothy Liljegren is a downgrade), but the left side carries question marks. The model still isn’t sold on Simon Benoit, though that’s primarily due to a truly unfortunate first season with the Ducks. That has some potential of resurfacing and he does seem to be a major passenger with the puck. To his credit, though, he looked like a capable No. 4 last season with a slightly below-average Net Rating of minus-1.3 driven by stout defense.
The bigger issues lie in front of him. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a 4/5 at this stage of his career and while he does add average offense to the group, a significant need for this team, he comes with a lot of defensive baggage. It’s certainly not at John Klingberg levels (who started last year with a minus-7 Defensive Rating), but it’s a real concern.
And then there’s Morgan Rielly, the team’s de facto No. 1 and arguably the biggest thing holding the Leafs back. Offensively, he grades out well compared to other top guys — just not enough for what he lacks defensively. That lack of two-way ability keeps him from being a true top guy, which is exactly what separates the Leafs from the league’s other elite teams. In a bad way.
Look at the other top contenders — Edmonton, Dallas, Vancouver, Florida, Carolina, Colorado, New York — and they all have a no-questions-asked elite defenseman, with many being franchise-caliber. Rielly isn’t that and until that issue is fixed, the Leafs’ ultimate ceiling will always come into question. That’s a big box left unchecked on their Stanley Cup checklist.
There’s a chance playing with Tanev fixes that. Ditto for McCabe next to Ekman-Larsson. It’s “good enough” and an improvement over years past, sure. But it doesn’t matter how much is fixed around the top guy when the problem will always be the top guy simply not stacking up. Toronto is one No. 1 defenseman short.
All that will leave a lot of trepidation that this truly is a 110-point team, or that this is the version that finally goes on a deep run. It’s a fair critique, one that once again puts the Core Four at center stage.
This team will always be good enough as long as that quartet remains elite with a capital ‘E.’ Hockey is a strong-link game and Toronto’s links are still very strong.
But that doesn’t mean the weak links don’t matter and Toronto, again, has a lot of those. It may be what holds them back from being great when it really counts.
The best case
Berube brings out the best in the Leafs core with Matthews, Marner and Nylander having career seasons. The defense is the best it’s ever looked, Woll is the real deal and after many lessons, the Leafs finally put it all together with a decisive Presidents’ Trophy- and Stanley Cup-winning combination.
The worst case
The Leafs finish third in the Atlantic, again, and lose in the first round in seven games, again. The core struggles, again, and the depth isn’t good enough, again. Tavares and Marner leave in free agency and the Core Four era ends with a whimper.
The bottom line
This regular season could be more interesting (and consequential) than the last few for the Maple Leafs, especially if they’re contending for a Presidents’ Trophy. Still, it’s tough to shake the feeling they’re again about to spend six months killing time until another shot at changing their arc.
References
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.
(Top photo of William Nylander: China Wong / NHLI via Getty Images)
