Erik ten Hag’s predecessor Ole Gunnar Solskjaer once described winning cups as an “ego thing”, and said the real test of progress was league position.
Ten Hag’s line of United winning two trophies (League Cup in 2023, FA Cup in 2024) in as many seasons has become as much a display of pride as a defence mechanism.
United’s goalless draw away to Aston Villa set a club record for their fewest points (eight) and lowest league position (14th) seven games into a Premier League season. The record it broke? United from last season, who were 10th with nine points at this stage.
Their results have been bad and their performances little better. United look stuck, tactically, between a rock and a hard place.
Ten Hag insists that this team cannot play like his former Ajax side, yet United have spent over €250million on players who worked under him at Ajax.
Their two trophy wins have owed to their ability to be occasionally outstanding, defensively solid and lightning on the counter-attack, not a possession-based team.
United’s performance in Birmingham on Sunday did not have the drama of their midweek 3-3 draw in Porto, however in many ways it was an even worse showing.
Previously, United have thrived against Villa’s expansive attacking and high defensive line. Of the seven instances of a team attempting 10+ through balls in a Premier League game since 2022-23, two are United against Villa — at home in April 2023 (12) and December 2023 (10).
This time, United only managed two through balls and failed to register a big chance.
Here, in chronological order, are four instances of them rushing passes in-behind.
One: United play out from Andre Onana, Villa press and United work through it. There is an angled ball into Bruno Fernandes, who plays a one-two with Rasmus Hojlund, then overhits a through ball to Marcus Rashford, and it runs out for a throw-in.
Villa’s high line made these passes enticing, but United simply did not get their full-backs involved enough. A pass into the feet of Rashford, or left-back Diogo Dalot, could have created a two-v-one against Matty Cash.
Two: Ten Hag’s liking for his full-backs to move into midfield shows its downsides here, as Rashford gets trapped two-v-one on the wing. Once more, Villa’s aggressiveness makes the pass in-behind possible.
Fernandes takes himself out the game by making his run too early, and while Hojlund times his well, he is brushed off the ball by Diego Carlos.
Three: In settled possession, Onana comes out beyond United’s third with the ball. Villa lock-on to United’s central midfielders, with Dalot infield and Alejandro Garnacho moving centrally from a right-wing position. Onana hits it over everyone and through to Villa goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez.
Four: After a United regain in their own half, Christian Eriksen hits an early channel ball for Hojlund, who ends up second-best to Carlos again.
Eriksen is under little pressure, and made a habit in the first half of trying to play quick balls in-behind on the counter-attack. Had he opened his body out, an easy pass to the feet of Rashford could have had United running at the defence.
United were particularly reliant on wide areas. Only 19 per cent of their attacking-half touches came down the middle third. There have only been four United league games under Ten Hag with a higher proportion of attacking-half touches out wide.
Excluding Fernandes’ second-half free-kick which hit the bar, United’s best chances to score came from Rashford on the break early in each half.
Here, four minutes in, Rashford dispossesses Cash and immediately drives forward. That had been a source of goals for United in Porto but the issue here is that United’s three supporting attackers make selfish and unhelpful runs.
Garnacho’s movement is a particular issue. Rather than attacking the back post to maximise United’s options and stretch the defence, he runs inside Lucas Digne and Pau Torres.
When Rashford cuts in and shoots, Garnacho — who is offside — has to duck to keep out the way of the shot. Hojlund is at least in a position to attack a rebound, but Martinez parries away to safety.
United’s counter-attacking suffered not just because of decision-making, but also due to Villa’s build-up structure.
Unai Emery’s side shifted into their typical 3-2-5, tucking the right-back inside, pushing left-back Digne forwards, with left No 10 Jaden Philogene moving into the halfspace.
It never properly carved United apart, but it caused consistent positioning and marking issues for Garnacho and Noussair Mazraoui, who kept trying to exchange marking responsibilities. This put Garnacho in deep positions, further from Villa’s goal when United did make regains.
United, more than most Premier League teams, need their counter attacking to click to win games.
Last season, as per Footovision, 22.7 per cent of their big chances, and around one-fifth of their expected goals, came on the counter attack. They ranked in the top five Premier League teams in both metrics, and were tied seventh for the highest proportion of first passes forwards in attacking transition (72.2 per cent).
In organised build-up, Ten Hag’s use of his full-backs as auxiliary midfielders is impacting United’s wingers. It leaves them isolated and forces them to attack individualistically, which is more likely to lead to turnovers.
Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal are useful comparisons, clubs who use plenty of underlaps and overlaps from their full-backs especially, which helps occupy defenders to create space for the wingers to shoot, or opens up angles for cutbacks from the full-backs.
Against Villa, United’s overlaps were infrequent and used ineffectively. Here is their best overlapping move of the game.
They build-up down the right, with Harry Maguire driving forward and passing into Mazraoui’s feet. He shifts the ball first-time to Garnacho.
As Villa press, United have to play around to access the central midfielders. Mazraoui makes a third-man run as Garnacho flicks it into Fernandes. Digne has jumped to the Argentina winger, which leaves space for Mazraoui, but Fernandes overhits the pass.
There were two particularly disappointing examples down the left. In the first, United switch play well, with two No 6s (Eriksen and Kobbie Mainoo) well positioned to connect play from Mazraoui to Rashford.
Dalot overlaps Rashford as he drives at Cash, though herein lies the problem of playing a right-footer at left-back — Rashford is not inclined to slip Dalot into a cutback position on his non-dominant foot, and hesitates.
But Rashford does not cut in either, and Villa quickly regain shape. When he does finally try to pass to Dalot, Cash intercepts. Really, the optimal pass here was a back-post cross, which would suit Rashford, as United have a three-on-two there.
The second example came from a launched United goal kick, where they lost the first header but the ball dropped at the feet of substitute Casemiro, who quickly switched it to Garnacho.
Dalot opts for the underlap, sensing that Cash will go tight to the winger and open up a halfspace run.
However Garnacho comes inside and Dalot almost crashes into him — he needed an overlap. Garnacho’s shot is blocked and three Villa defenders are nearly on top of each other.
In recent games Ten Hag has been able to use the justification that, even if United weren’t scoring goals, they were creating chances.
But only Southampton (four) have scored fewer than United’s five (three came against Southampton). United only rank ninth for expected goals (11.1), sandwiched between West Ham and Fulham.
This United team are clearly never going to be one that blows teams away, which might be enough for a cup run but means their league ceiling stays low.
They’ve had more one-goal wins since 2022-23 than any other team (27) and are one of only four sides to not win a Premier League game by four or more goals in that time — along with Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
United are regressing, and desperately need to evolve in attack, otherwise that record-breaking bad start to the season is only going to get worse.
