Every team in the Big Ten has played at least two conference games, and six teams have arrived at the halfway point in their seasons.
For us, the time has arrived to assess what’s left. All season, writers from The Athletic will rank various Big Ten topics. This week, Austin Meek and Mitch Sherman looked at the remaining schedules for each team in the league.
Important games on the horizon carry College Football Playoff implications. This week, No. 2 Ohio State visits No. 3 Oregon, and No. 4 Penn State travels to USC as the two traditional Big Ten powers embark on road trips within the new conference layout.
Next week gives us Nebraska at No. 18 Indiana, perhaps the Hoosiers’ biggest test yet. Ohio State at Penn State and Oregon at Michigan are just three weeks away.
As the big games loom, we identified the five easiest schedules over the eight weeks ahead and the five most difficult among Big Ten teams, plus the paths of the CFP favorites.
Easiest
1. Iowa (3-2, 1-1 Big Ten)
Remaining schedule: Washington, at Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, at UCLA, bye, at Maryland, Nebraska
The Hawkeyes don’t have a game left against a ranked team. They have four of seven at home, including rivals Wisconsin and Nebraska. The remaining bye is positioned well between long road trips. And Iowa gets Washington on Saturday in a long journey for the Huskies after they slugged it out against Michigan last week. Not judged here, of course, is the painful trip to Ohio State that Iowa just completed.
But if it can rebound and get back to the physical defensive style and rugged ground attack led by Kaleb Johnson, a good chance exists for Kirk Ferentz’s team to go on a run in October and November. — Sherman
2. Rutgers (4-1, 1-1)
Remaining schedule: Wisconsin, UCLA, at USC, bye, Minnesota, at Maryland, Illinois, at Michigan State
Scoring a single touchdown in a loss at Nebraska had to be frustrating for a program that can’t seem to get over the hump offensively. With a win in Lincoln, the Scarlet Knights would have had a shot to be 7-0 going into USC on Oct. 25. This might not be the 10-win season Rutgers was hoping for, but the schedule still sets up for a strong finish.
The Trojans gave up 144 rushing yards to Minnesota’s Darius Taylor and 159 to Michigan’s Kalel Mullings. That’s good news for Kyle Monangai, the Big Ten’s second-leading rusher at 133 yards per game. The Scarlet Knights get an open date after their trip to L.A. and don’t play Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State or Indiana. With this schedule, it would be a shame if Rutgers doesn’t win at least eight games. — Meek
3. Illinois (4-1, 1-1)
Remaining schedule: Purdue, Michigan, at Oregon, Minnesota, bye, Michigan State, at Rutgers, at Northwestern
Outside of a Week 9 trip to the Pacific Northwest, the schedule for the Illini is filled with teams pointed sideways or in a downward direction. Minnesota might argue otherwise after its win against USC, which followed a narrow loss marred by officiating at Michigan. But the Gophers have lost three straight in this series and will be playing on the road. Michigan also travels to Champaign, and this is the year to get right with the Wolverines.
With Luke Altmyer, Illinois arguably has the better quarterback in six of seven remaining games. The Illini are positioned to enter bowl season on a hot streak. — Sherman
4. Michigan State (3-3, 1-2)
Remaining schedule: Bye, Iowa, at Michigan, Indiana, bye, at Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers
Jonathan Smith’s return to the Pacific Northwest wasn’t especially memorable. The Spartans lost 31-10 at Oregon on Friday and have an off week to regroup for the second half of the schedule. The good news is the final six games should provide opportunities for Michigan State to find three more victories and make a bowl game in Smith’s first season.
The Spartans have home games against three offensively challenged teams — Iowa, Purdue and Rutgers — though the Hawkeyes and Scarlet Knights play tough defense and are capable of exploiting Aidan Chiles’ turnover tendencies. If you’re looking for a place where unbeaten Indiana might stumble, a trip to East Lansing on Nov. 2 is worth circling. Aside from the Hoosiers, Michigan State doesn’t play any of the Big Ten’s other CFP front-runners and leaves the state of Michigan only once in the final six weeks of the season, though the trip to Ann Arbor is never easy. — Meek
5. Indiana (6-0, 3-0)
Remaining schedule: Bye, Nebraska, Washington, at Michigan State, Michigan, bye, at Ohio State, Purdue
Indiana, the most surprising juggernaut in college football, is No. 3 in the FBS in scoring, at 47.5 points per game. Say what you want about Indiana’s schedule, but the Hoosiers are still the only Big Ten team to win a conference game after traveling across multiple time zones.
The schedule gets tougher for Indiana, but anybody expecting the Hoosiers to come crashing down to earth might want to think twice. Indiana plays four of its final six games at home, with a Nov. 23 trip to Ohio State looming as the one huge hurdle standing between the Hoosiers and a spot in the Playoff.
The Athletic’s model has Indiana squarely on the Playoff bubble at No. 13 with a 40 percent chance of earning a bid. If you’re rooting for chaos, cheer for Indiana, Oregon and Penn State to finish 11-1 with losses to Ohio State and nobody else. Notably, Indiana is the only team of the four that doesn’t have to make at least one trip to the other side of the country in the second half of the season. — Meek
Toughest
1. Washington (4-2, 2-1)
Remaining schedule: at Iowa, bye, at Indiana, USC, at Penn State, UCLA, bye, at Oregon
Who drew this up? The start of Big Ten play for the Huskies was no joke, with a cross-country Friday night trip to Rutgers before Michigan came to Seattle. And it’s getting more difficult. Three more long, round-trip journeys will test Washington’s resolve — and its ability to throw in weather conditions unfamiliar to quarterback Will Rogers. Rogers, the Mississippi State transfer, ranks second in the Big Ten in passing yardage. The Huskies will need even more from running back Jonah Coleman, who’s been a strong addition in coming with coach Jedd Fisch from Arizona.
The bye weeks are nicely placed, but other than perhaps a Friday night visit from UCLA, no moment exists to think about rest. — Sherman
2. Purdue (1-4, 0-2)
Remaining schedule: at Illinois, Oregon, bye, Northwestern, at Ohio State, Penn State, at Michigan State, at Indiana
There’s no letup in sight for the Boilermakers, who’ve slipped into their own category of despair at the bottom of the conference. All four of the Big Ten’s remaining unbeatens await Purdue. Coach Ryan Walters is floundering in his second season after the firing of OC Graham Harrell didn’t shake life into this squad.
The optics of playing four ranked opponents in the next five games — including a Friday night kickoff against Oregon on national Fox television — don’t figure to pump excitement into the program before it closes against upstart rival Indiana. Survival is the top priority for Purdue. — Sherman
3. Nebraska (5-1, 2-1)
Remaining schedule: Bye, at Indiana, at Ohio State, UCLA, bye, at USC, Wisconsin, at Iowa
Nebraska survived its comparatively easy first half with five wins to sit on the verge of snapping a seven-year postseason drought. But the road to add victories is paved with trouble. And it starts a week earlier than anticipated because of Indiana’s fast rise. Nebraska will again try to beat an AP-ranked foe for the first time since 2016 when it faces the Hoosiers next week. The streak is 25 games, all defeats.
And if the Huskers fail, they’ll get another shot one week later at Ohio State. Nebraska went winless in November a year ago, losing four games by 16 points. It’s better in 2024, but so is the slate of opponents. — Sherman
4. Ohio State (5-0, 2-0)
Remaining schedule: at Oregon, bye, Nebraska, at Penn State, Purdue, at Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan
The Buckeyes haven’t been seriously tested yet and have won all five of their games by at least four touchdowns. That’s about to change, as they travel to Oregon on Saturday for the first of two massive road games against CFP front-runners.
The Athletic’s model has Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State as heavy favorites to make the CFP. The loser of Saturday’s game in Eugene is hardly eliminated, but more than just a Playoff bid is at stake. The Ohio State-Oregon and Ohio State-Penn State games will go a long way in determining who appears in the Big Ten Championship Game, who has a shot at a first-round bye and who’s in contention to host a Playoff game.
Ohio State has the Michigan game circled in red, but the Indiana game a week earlier looks like the bigger one from a Playoff perspective. Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. — Meek
5. Maryland (3-2, 0-2)
Remaining schedule: Northwestern, USC, at Minnesota, bye, at Oregon, Rutgers, Iowa, at Penn State
With a heavily backloaded schedule, Maryland needed to bank some wins in the first half and hope for the best in the second half. There’s no shame in losing at Indiana, but a home loss to Michigan State will loom large if Maryland finishes a game short of bowl eligibility.
The Terrapins might need to win the next two at home against Northwestern and USC to go bowling for a fourth consecutive season. The November schedule is brutal: a cross-country trip to Oregon, home games against Rutgers and Iowa, then the finale at Penn State. Going 1-3 in that stretch would count as a success and might be enough to get Maryland to 6-6. — Meek
Paths for top CFP contenders
Per The Athletic’s model, these are the Big Ten teams with the highest odds of making the Playoff: Ohio State (96 percent), Oregon (88 percent), Penn State (87 percent) and Indiana (40 percent). For the teams not included in our easiest and toughest rankings, here are their paths:
Oregon (5-0, 2-0)
Remaining schedule: Ohio State, at Purdue, Illinois, at Michigan, Maryland, at Wisconsin, bye, Washington
Oregon’s showdown against the Buckeyes is the game everyone in the Big Ten circled on the calendar. The trips to Purdue, Michigan and Wisconsin aren’t as tough as they appeared in the preseason, and the Ducks should be favored over Washington at home to end the regular season. — Meek
Penn State (5-0, 2-0)
Remaining schedule: at USC, bye, at Wisconsin, Ohio State, Washington, at Purdue, at Minnesota, Maryland
Even with USC losing to Minnesota, Penn State has reason to be wary of Saturday’s cross-country trip. If the Nittany Lions win that one, they should be in a strong position for the CFP regardless of what happens Nov. 2 against Ohio State, assuming they handle business against the other teams on their schedule. — Meek
(Top photo of Michigan State’s Kay’ron Lynch-Adams: Roger Wimmer / ISI Photos via Getty Images)
