Everything is relative, which is why I choose my words carefully when talking about fantasy hoops. Would I be calling Paolo Banchero a sleeper if his Average Draft Position (ADP) was in the 60s? Most definitely! Unfortunately, his ADP is currently in the 30s, so no, I won’t be calling him that.
Whichever platform you’re playing on, it’s important to be paying attention to ADP. This doesn’t mean you should be drafting the highest ADP player available every round, but you should at least have an idea of what is the current consensus.
An important thing to remember is that ADPs are always evolving, and by doing some comparisons, we can see which players are rising and falling.
Let’s start by re-visiting my article from nearly a month ago, when I focused on players who are set to receive a significant playing time boost for the season ahead. Did that article help jump-start any trends in terms of where players are now getting drafted?
To compare and contrast, I will list player ADPs from NFBKC leagues, both before and after that column came out (September 11). The main reason I am using NFBKC ADP as a reference point is because you can filter ADP by date, but the fact that there is money at stake in every single league is also a plus.
For those of you playing in Yahoo leagues, don’t worry, we’ll examine some of the more intriguing Yahoo ADPs a bit later in this column.
Excluding Victor Wembanyama (who we’re skipping, since his ADP can’t really climb any higher), 10 of the 16 players who I mentioned in my column from a month ago have climbed up people’s draft boards, some quite significantly. Let’s take a look at those 10 players…
Immanuel Quickley, TOR
- ADP before September 11: 56.5 | ADP after September 11: 47.5 (-9.0)
Quickley’s ADP has moved up a full nine spots since my article came out, as fantasy managers have taken notice of his high-usage stat potential, and are eager to get a piece of him.
Cam Thomas, BKN
- Before: 76.3 | After: 70.8 (-5.5)
Thomas hasn’t moved up as much as Quickley has, but it’s worth noting that he’s leapfrogged Jordan Poole and Brandon Ingram.
Jonathan Kuminga, GSW
- Before: 91.9 | After: 77.9 (-14.0)
Kuminga’s ADP has really climbed, and he’s now firmly going in the seventh round of most 12-team NFBKC drafts.
Keyonte George, UTAH
- Before: 114.0 | After: 107.1 (-6.9)
George is another young player who is moving up people’s draft boards, but I’ll remind you that his first preseason game, in which he posted a solid 12 points and 5 assists in 22 minutes, came against the New Zealand Breakers, who aren’t exactly an NBA-level team.
Trayce Jackson-Davis, GSW
- Before: 129.1 | After: 122.0 (-7.1)
Another player moving up roughly seven draft spots, TJD isn’t as proven as players like Jerami Grant and Aaron Gordon (other forwards with similar ADPs), but the unknown is often more intriguing to people.
Andrew Nembhard, IND
- Before: 150.2 | After: 146.3 (-3.9)
It’s only a slight move up for Nembhard, but it’s worth noting that he’s moved ahead of veteran guards Malcolm Brogdon and Buddy Hield.
Taylor Hendricks, UTAH
- Before: 155.7 | After: 139.1 (-16.6)
I’m not convinced that Hendricks is a big-time NBA prospect, but luckily for him, Utah’s frontcourt isn’t exactly oozing with talent. The opportunity is there, and he started ahead of John Collins in their preseason opener.
Jonathan Isaac, ORL
- Before: 170.1 | After: 164.4 (-5.7)
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a player with stronger shot-blocking potential at this stage of the draft, so it’s not surprising that Isaac’s ADP is improving.
Keon Ellis, SAC
- Before: 192.5 | After: 184.7 (-7.8)
In early summer, Ellis was routinely falling to the 17th round of 12-team drafts, but now he’s often being targeted in the 15th round.
Gradey Dick, TOR
- Before: 187.2 | After: 181.7 (-5.5)
With veteran Bruce Brown and rookie Ja’Kobe Walter both currently sidelined with injuries, Toronto’s starting shooting guard spot is Dick’s to lose. He shot 0-of-4 from deep in their preseason opener, but dished out 5 assists (caveat: both Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley sat out).
I’ll take a tiny bit of credit for these 10 players moving up people’s draft boards, but the real takeaway here is that it doesn’t take much (one strong preseason game, or a minor injury, for example) for player ADPs to start rising or falling. If it seems like the hype surrounding a player is increasing, you may want to target that player a round earlier than his ADP suggests.
More ADP risers over the past two weeks
Now let’s hone in on ADP numbers over the past two weeks to see which notable players are moving up the most in recent NFBKC drafts.
Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK
- ADP before Sept. 23: 28.9 | ADP after Sept. 23: 22.9 (-6.0)
The trade to the Knicks has boosted KAT’s fantasy prospects, and he’s now a Top 25 lock in most leagues. Don’t be surprised if his ADP moves into the Top 20 soon.
Josh Hart, NYK
- Before: 145.4 | After: 116.3 (-29.1)
Another Knicks player benefitting from the Towns trade is Hart, as he’s gone from being a key bench player to starting again, and he’s expected to play major minutes under Tom Thibodeau.
Keldon Johnson, SAS
- Before: 169.1 | After: 142.1 (-27.0)
The recent Devin Vassell injury has boosted Johnson’s overall fantasy value. His scoring prowess will be much-needed for as long as Vassell is out.
Nick Richards, CHA
- Before: 179.8 | After: 154.0 (-25.8)
Mark Williams can’t seem to stay healthy in Charlotte, which has fantasy managers in need of center depth targeting Richards in the later rounds of drafts. If you’re still willing to roll the dice on Williams, try handcuffing Richards to him a few rounds later.
Ben Simmons, BKN
- Before: 200.4 | After: 181.7 (-18.7)
Once again, it’s hard for some fantasy managers to resist drinking the Ben Simmons Kool-Aid. “This is the year he’s finally healthy and will go back to being an All-Star caliber player!” That, or he averages 6.2 ppg over 16 games played, both of which would be an improvement over last season.
Miles McBride, NYK
- Before: 270.1 | After: 220.3 (-49.8)
Now the Knicks’ sixth man due to Donte DiVincenzo being traded to Minnesota, McBride showcased his talents last season, and he will be relied upon heavily whenever injuries strike. It likely won’t take long before McBride’s ADP drops below 200.
Key players falling over the past two weeks
Kawhi Leonard, LAC
- Before: 31.9 | After: 62.7 (+30.8)
When it comes to Leonard’s health, it doesn’t take much to scare off fantasy managers. Along with Joel Embiid, they are probably the biggest high-risk, high-reward players out there. Let’s hope Leonard at least plays in one preseason game so we can evaluate how he looks.
Mark Williams, CHA
- Before: 68.4 | After: 107.4 (+39.0)
Currently sidelined with a strained tendon in his left foot, this could be a minor short-term injury, or something that lingers and affects Williams all season long. Are there any podiatrists out there who have a recommendation for us?
Devin Vassell, SAS
- Before: 68.8 | After: 105.6 (+36.8)
Currently recovering from right foot surgery, Vassell has fallen nearly 37 spots on average over the past two weeks. As an important part of their future, the Spurs will err on the side of caution with Vassell.
Onyeka Okongwu, ATL
- Before: 78.9 | After: 105.1 (+26.2)
Other than hearing that Okongwu’s left big toe still isn’t 100% healthy, there haven’t been many reports on how much he’s able to do on the court up to this point. Until there’s a positive report, his ADP will likely continue to fall.
Khris Middleton, MIL
- Before: 108.4 | After: 124.4 (+16.0)
It would be great to see a bounce-back season from Middleton, but having double ankle surgery in the offseason is cause for concern, and the Bucks appear to be easing him back slowly.
Patrick Williams, CHI
- Before: 146.5 | After: 176.0 (+29.5)
We’ll see if he can quiet some of the noise surrounding his health in the preseason, but it’s hard to be optimistic about Williams’ troublesome left foot since all it took was a brief minicamp for him to suffer a setback.
Comparing ADPs — NFBKC vs. Yahoo
Now let’s do a side-by-side comparison — NFBKC drafts vs. Yahoo drafts — of how different some ADPs look for certain players. For this comparison, I am using their general ADPs, without filtering for a particular date range.
I won’t be offering much analysis here since I can’t exactly speak to what the general consensus in Yahoo drafts is thinking, but for the players on the first list below, you may want to be a little more aggressive than what the Yahoo ADPs are suggesting. Conversely, for the players on the second list below, you may want to think twice before drafting them at their current Yahoo ADPs.
Players drafted earlier in NFBKC leagues compared to Yahoo
- Anthony Davis, LAL — Yahoo ADP: 7.7 | NFBKC ADP: 5.6
- Scottie Barnes, TOR — Yahoo: 19.4 | NFBKC: 15.3
- Bam Adebayo, MIA — Yahoo: 32.0 | NFBKC: 24.4
- Deandre Ayton — Yahoo: 61.7 | NFBKC: 52.4
- Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC — Yahoo: 78.0 | NFBKC: 64.6
- Zach Edey, MEM — Yahoo: 112.1 | NFBKC: 76.4
- Deni Avdija, POR — Yahoo: 127.0 | NFBKC: 114.3
- Scoot Henderson, POR — Yahoo: 132.6 | NFBKC: 104.3
- Alex Sarr, WAS — Yahoo: 138.4 | NFBKC: 117.7
In terms of position eligibility, there are a lot more F/C players on Yahoo compared to NFBKC. This moves some of the center-eligible players up a bit in NFBKC leagues, which can be seen in players like Adebayo, Ayton and Hartenstein essentially being picked a full round or two earlier. But I think the average NFBKC fantasy manager is also more willing to roll the dice on the upside potential of unproven players, with Edey and Henderson being prime examples.
Players drafted earlier in Yahoo leagues compared to NFBKC
- Stephen Curry, GSW — Yahoo: 12.0 | NFBKC: 18.8
- Kyrie Irving, DAL — Yahoo: 24.2 | NFBKC: 29.2
- Lauri Markkanen, UTAH — Yahoo: 30.6 | NFBKC: 38.0
- Jimmy Butler, MIA — Yahoo: 47.9 | NFBKC: 58.5
- Zach LaVine — Yahoo: 65.7 | NFBKC: 87.9
- Jrue Holiday — Yahoo: 77.7 | NFBKC: 98.4
- Chris Paul — Yahoo: 101.7 | NFBKC: 124.0
- Jerami Grant — Yahoo: 107.8 | NFBKC: 123.7
- Buddy Hield — Yahoo: 128.3 | NFBKC: 148.5
Do you notice a difference between these two lists? Well, even with nine-time All-Star Anthony Davis included, the average age for the nine players mentioned in the first list (players who are getting drafted earlier in NFBKC leagues) is 24.1 years. Meanwhile, the average age for the nine players on the latter list (players who are getting drafted earlier in Yahoo drafts) is 32.6 years. That’s a massive age difference.
It seems to me that the average Yahoo fantasy manager is more heavily influenced by what players have done throughout their entire careers, while the average NFBKC fantasy manager is more interested in how players are going to perform in the season ahead.
The “old man” strategy isn’t a terrible one, but executing the perfect fantasy basketball draft is all about maximizing as much value as possible. This usually means finding the right balance between drafting overlooked veterans, and aggressively going after the right breakout players. I suggest using ADPs to help you understand what the general consensus tends to be thinking for the league that you’re drafting in, but don’t get caught up in simply following the herd.
(Top photo of Kawhi Leonard, Josh Hart: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports)
