It’s time again to peer into the crystal ball and see what the future holds for the 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs.
Let’s get into it!
Auston Matthews goals: 59.5
Jonas Siegel: Over
I was really leaning toward the under, simply because scoring 60 goals is supposed to be hard, like really hard. Only five players in NHL history – Wayne Gretzky, Mike Bossy, Mario Lemieux, Phil Esposito, and Brett Hull – have scored 60 or more in three separate seasons. Auston Matthews has already, in only eight seasons, done it twice. In the end, I just couldn’t find a good reason to bet against him reaching that illustrious mark again and joining that exclusive club. Matthews has scored 60 goals, or at a 60-goal pace, in three of the past four seasons. And while his 18.7 percent shooting last season was a tad high, the highest of his career in fact, Matthews has shot 17 percent or higher in three other seasons. He’s a 16.2 percent shooter for his career. The only threat to 60 goals that I can see is health.
Joseph Woll starts: 36.5
Joshua Kloke: Over
Joseph Woll’s ability to stay healthy has been arguably the question surrounding the Maple Leafs heading into this season, which I sort of understand and sort of don’t. Yes, he’s had injuries but the suggestions that Woll is injury-prone seem overblown. Two types of athletes just figure things out on the injury front: Those who are intelligent enough and have the foresight to understand what changes to make and those who just do whatever trainers and doctors tell them what to do. Woll ticks both boxes and after essentially a full offseason in Toronto, he seems primed to make the most of his opportunity to grab the starter’s job. The Leafs don’t want Woll to be the guy behind the guy, and everything I’ve learned about him suggests he’s capable of doing just that.
There will still be questions about Woll as the season begins, I’m sure, but I’m willing to bet big on the combination of talent and brains. This season, Woll will become the first starter the Leafs drafted and developed since James Reimer took the job in 2012-13.
Mitch Marner points: 99.5
Siegel: Over
It’s going to happen at some point. Mitch Marner didn’t have a great year last season and still produced at a 101-point pace. The key might just be his start. Marner is a notoriously sluggish starter. October is the one month historically that he’s produced at well under a point per game – 64 points in 75 games. Last season, Marner had eight points in nine October games. The rest of the way, he shimmied to 77 points in only 60 games. Come out rocking this fall and Marner will hit the century point for the first time and join Matthews, Doug Gilmour and Darryl Sittler as the only Leafs to do so.
Nick Robertson average ice time: 12.5
Kloke: Over
You just knew I was going to smash the over on this.
Nick Robertson deserves credit for entering training camp after a trying summer and with the deck seemingly stacked against him. And he played some of the best hockey he’s played in Toronto. On a one-year deal, I bet Robertson plays like his future depends on it and forces his way into more ice time than the 11:23 he played last season.
A few things to consider here: After a great preseason, Robertson will enter the regular season flying. He could bump up his ATOI with some heavy early-season numbers.
Robertson projects to start the season on the Leafs’ third line with a second power-play unit spot, which is a perfect place for him. It’s apples and oranges, yes, but going back to Craig Berube’s 2018-19 Stanley Cup-winning St. Louis Blues team, Berube didn’t shy away from giving then 19-year-old Robert Thomas third(ish)-line minutes as his game developed. Thomas’ ATOI at season end? 13:04.
Finally – and this is not a cop-out – there is always a chance things go awry for Robertson. What then? He’s likely moved. And whoever is going to take a chance on him is going to do so as a fan of his game. His ice time as a result will pop.
Chris Tanev games played: 71.5
Siegel: Under
This is a very slight under, but an under no less. My prediction: Chris Tanev finishes somewhere between 65-70 games in his first season with the Leafs. I should start by noting that Tanev ditched his injury-prone reputation the last four seasons. He played in every game during the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, suited up in 65 the year after that, and 75 last season. So why the under? One, older players tend to get hurt more often and Tanev will turn 35 in December. Two, Tanev will almost certainly play bigger minutes this season. In Calgary, he played on what was almost like a 1B pairing with Noah Hanifin and averaged in and around 20 minutes a night the last few seasons. In Toronto, there’s no doubt that he and Morgan Rielly will shoulder the largest load and I’m guessing that pushes Tanev (also a No. 1 unit penalty-killer) up to 22 on average. More minutes, for one of the older players in the league, equals more wear and tear, and thus the potential for more injuries, for a guy who will literally block shots with his face.
Mitch Marner extended: January 1, 2025
Kloke: Over
I was tempted to take the under here: When you consider how close to January 1 William Nylander re-upped last year and that it feels like Marner will light it up early in the season, an extension before the big ball drops remains possible.
But ultimately so much of Marner’s value, at least in the eyes of the Leafs, will come down to what he does in the playoffs. It’s his up-and-down play in the postseason that’s dogged him. And if I’m the Leafs, I’m taking a good long look at what he can do come this spring before I commit big money to him. The Leafs simply need Marner to be consistently electric in the playoffs for this approach with this core to work.
Is that fair to him considering he is first in playoff points-per-game (0.88) of any Leafs since 2016? And will it help the player to have a lack of a contract hanging over him the entire season?
We’re about to find out.
Timothy Liljegren still on the Leafs roster: January 1, 2025
Siegel: Under
The vibes aren’t good right now. And while part of me is tempted to think that what happens in October might stay in October, it’s also clear to me that Timothy Liljegren isn’t going to suddenly become a stylistic fit for this front office or head coach. Liljegren is beginning the season as the eighth defenceman on the depth chart; Jani Hakanpää will make for one more giant obstacle once he gets healthy. Eventually, assuming fuller health (no sure thing obviously), the Leafs will need to make a move and if there’s one obvious candidate for that it’s Liljegren, earning $3 million cap dollars this season and next. Injuries may arise and vault Liljegren back into the mix, at which point, maybe he finds something that appeals to Berube. Keep in mind that the Leafs used 13 defencemen last season. Still, it’s felt like Liljegren has been on borrowed time with the Leafs for a while now, since at least Brad Treliving took over as GM. If I’m betting it’s on his exit in 2024.
Playoff round wins: 1.5
Kloke: Over
The goaltending is improved. The defence is probably improved. This also feels like a team that will take a swing at the deadline.
Add in the possibility that the Florida Panthers are exhausted after two straight runs to the Stanley Cup Finals. And the Boston Bruins and the Tampa Bay Lightning – at least as currently constructed – don’t look as dangerous as in years past?
At some point, this Leafs core should figure it out. And there’s reason to believe (*begins to duck*) this is the year.
(Photo: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)
