How did Week 5 shake up the potential 2025 NFL Draft order?
To get an update on where things stand, we turn to Austin Mock’s projections. Mock projects the score for every game and the final winning percentage for every team using his NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. The simulation then runs 100,000 times after each day of games to give us, in this case, our projected top 10 draft order, plus each team’s projected win total and playoff chances.
You can take a deeper dive into Mock’s playoff model here. The latest projected top 10 for April’s draft:
| Team | Projected record | Playoff chance |
|---|---|---|
 1. Carolina |
5-12
|
2%
|
 2. New England |
5-12
|
2%
|
 3. Cleveland |
5-12
|
2%
|
 4. Tennessee |
6-11
|
9%
|
 5. Las Vegas |
7-10
|
11%
|
 6. Jacksonville |
7-10
|
15%
|
 7. Indianapolis |
7-10
|
15%
|
 8. LA Rams |
7-10
|
10%
|
 9. NY Giants |
7-10
|
12%
|
 10. Arizona |
8-9
|
25%
|
A few thoughts on this week’s projections from our NFL Draft expert Nick Baumgardner:
Well, the good vibes lasted less than a week in Carolina — the Panthers are back in our projected No. 1 spot this week.
It’s still early, of course, but we’re starting to get a better idea of which teams are the most likely to be in that top-five range. The Panthers, New England Patriots and Cleveland Browns feel like locks. I’m still not ready to put the Tennessee Titans there in ink, but it’s close. Same with the Las Vegas Raiders.
That said, let’s take a quick look at the biggest potential draft needs for the worst clubs in the league through five weeks.
1. Carolina Panthers: More picks, WR, edge
We’ve been over how Carolina’s entire organization, starting with owner David Tepper, has wrecked Bryce Young’s confidence. Maybe the Panthers circle the wagons and find a way to get Young back on a proper track; maybe they start over (again).
The bigger needs might be elsewhere. Carolina invested a No. 1 pick in a quarterback less than two years ago, but without addressing the rest of that roster through the draft — namely, receiver and edge — any quarterback is going to be in a no-win situation.
If the Panthers move on from Young at some point, I’d suggest their next quarterback come via free agency because this roster isn’t ready for another rookie — unless Tepper wants to wreck another one.
2. New England Patriots: OT, iDL, WR
The Patriots still need a lot, and those upgrades probably have to begin at offensive tackle. Allowing QB Drake Maye the chance to sit early on was a difficult choice, but it also was the right one given where this roster is at. We’ll see how Maye does as the starter. If New England can add a blue-chip tackle and more on the interior next spring, that’d be a great step toward helping him.
As importantly, New England’s run defense is nonexistent at the moment, and that’s not likely to change until it gets some type of anchor in the middle. The need looks even greater with Christian Barmore still out indefinitely.
New England has invested plenty of picks at receiver over the past few drafts. Unless something drastic changes over the next few months, though, that position will remain a need.
3. Cleveland Browns: OL, QB, RB
The Browns at least have to begin planning for when they can get rid of Deshaun Watson and move on. It’s certainly possible Watson will figure out his on-field issues, but he looks closer to being benched. Drafting a QB into this mess doesn’t seem ideal, but that position will be a need, one way or the other.
Tackle and possibly center also will be on that list, as a big part of Watson’s issues have come from a lack of protection outside. The Browns also need another running back, whether or not Nick Chubb gets (and stays) healthy.
4. Tennessee Titans: QB, OT, edge
Will Levis still has time to get himself together, but it has not looked good. Keep in mind, however, that Tennessee’s offensive line is still very young: JC Latham is a rookie, and Peter Skoronski is in just his second season. Another tackle is still needed up front, but time will tell whether that’s the Titans’ top need going into the offseason.
The Titans have gotten some good run defense early this season from rookie defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat, but they’ve lacked pass-rush punch on the outside.
5. Las Vegas Raiders: QB, WR, CB
Add receiver to the growing list of needs on a roster that still has question marks and a lack of depth all over the place. Quarterback, however, has to be the top need in Las Vegas. The Raiders need to pick a direction, and the time to do so is now, be it Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck, a free agent, what have you.
Defensively, somehow corner is still a need here. The Raiders have been one of the worst coverage units in football this season, and rookie Decamerion Richardson has yet to take the field.
(Photo of Patriots linebacker Ochaun Mathis: Fred Kfoury III / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
