Manchester City have won the Premier League four times in a row and are unbeaten after seven matches this season.
But they are more likely to be relegated than Brighton & Hove Albion, Fulham and West Ham United, according to bookmakers.
City are 12/1 to be relegated this season, with Arsenal and Liverpool, their two most prominent domestic rivals, priced at 2,000/1 to drop into the Championship.
This has nothing to do with their consecutive draws against Arsenal and Newcastle United, nor is it down to Rodri being out for the season with an anterior cruciate ligament injury he sustained against Arsenal in September.
There is no correlation between what they are producing on the pitch and the possibility of them playing in the English Football League next year.
Betting companies have shifted their odds due to City’s legal dispute with the Premier League — concerning the 100-plus charges levelled against the club — and the prospect of a significant points deduction if they are found guilty.
“From an industry point of view, the usual way of forming your relegation odds is to take the title odds and flip them the other way,” explains Alan Alger, a gambling consultant. “This is the first time it hasn’t happened.
“It is unprecedented that you would have a very short price for the title and then also what is a relatively short price for relegation. That can only be because the threat of relegation exists because of a relegation sanction or because of a big enough points deduction that puts them in the mix to be relegated.”
What is the latest regarding Manchester City’s 115 charges?
The hearing that will decide whether City broke any of the Premier League’s financial rules started on September 16 and is taking place in London.
It took more than 18 months to get to this stage, with the Premier League announcing the charges in February 2023. The hearing is expected to last around two and a half months.
The club is accused of multiple alleged breaches of a financial nature, including accusations they injected revenue by inflating sponsorship deals, while also hiding some costs by not declaring certain salaries and image-rights payments.
The charges range from failing to provide accurate financial information, breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules, failing to cooperate with the Premier League’s investigations, not providing accurate details for player and manager payments and not complying with UEFA’s FFP regulations.
When a verdict is delivered, City and the Premier League can mount an appeal if they are unhappy with the decision. City have maintained their innocence and strenuously deny all the charges.
How has this impacted their relegation odds?
Ordinarily, Manchester City, like Liverpool and Arsenal, would be priced at 2,000/1 to be relegated. This is a general price that makes clear bookmakers think there is no chance of it happening.
But in May, the market shifted and serious thought needed to be given to the likelihood of City receiving a points deduction that could lead to relegation.
“We were the first out in the industry in putting a price on Manchester City,” explains Bet365’s Steve Freeth. “We discussed whether we should offer a price because, quite clearly, the liabilities running out on 2,000/1 would be astronomical.
“It was a case of some heads getting together, putting our fingers in the air and saying, ‘What’s going to happen to Manchester City and how do we see it?’, because it is so extreme.
“The price we fell on was 33/1 because you can’t know whether they will get nothing at all or be deducted 100 points. We went out in the market on May 19 with 33/1 and it has been a steady flow of business ever since.”
Manchester City vs the Premier League
- Separating Guardiola’s wonderful team from the club’s reputation
- The season everything might change
- How could they be punished?
Are people placing bets on City being relegated?
Yes, which is why their odds have shortened from 33/1 to 12/1.
“The kind of people backing it are your regular punters in the street, placing bets of £1, £5 and £10,” says Freeth. “They are the sorts of bets we are laying.
“We are laying quite a considerable amount of those bets, hence why the price has dropped from 33/1 to 12/1 over those months.”
Freeth noted that Bet365 has “built liabilities into seven figures”, meaning if City are relegated this season, their payout to customers totals more than £1million.
“We have to protect ourselves because it is such a volatile situation and that’s why we haven’t been offering 2,000/1,” Freeth adds. “Manchester City could win the next 10 games on the bounce but the 12/1 price wouldn’t move a great deal. It is not about results on the pitch, it is about results in the courtroom.”
“It is purely a case of bookmakers protecting against the chance of a large points deduction that puts them in the relegation market,” Alger says. “And in such a high-percentage market in terms of profit for bookmakers, because you have 20 teams and three winners, you can overload the percentage and there is no upside in going 500/1 for Manchester City.
“But the fact you can go 12/1 and only take a small amount of margin out of your overall market, there is no upside to going any bigger than those prices because you won’t get any prizes for doing so. As the season plays out, you will continue to see them at a false price for relegation in terms of the chance of it happening.”
Have legal cases influenced sports betting markets before?
Everton and Nottingham Forest received points deductions last season, which has helped inform bookmakers on how to price in legal cases and potential punishments for relegation odds.
However, the cases involving Everton and Nottingham Forest pale compared to what has been levelled at City by the Premier League.
“Sometimes you can get a steer but there is such little information out there about the City case,” Freeth explains. “There was a steer last season that Everton would get a deduction of some sort, so that wasn’t as difficult to model. We didn’t think Everton would get more than 10 points, likewise Nottingham Forest.
“But just like everyone else, we haven’t got a clue (regarding Manchester City). That made us better prepared last season, but we have to stay vigilant and manage accordingly.”
Has a potential points deduction impacted City’s odds of winning a fifth consecutive title?
Pep Guardiola’s side are no longer favourites to win the Premier League, with Arsenal being viewed by bookmakers as the most likely club to end the season on top.
“The difference between being 4/7 favourites and then being 8/11 favourites at the start of the season, it looks minimal, but the percentage difference is about the same as the difference between 12/1 and 500/1 for relegation,” Alger says.
And, according to Freeth, people are still backing City to win the league, with the market most recently being impacted by Rodri’s season-ending injury, as well as Kevin De Bruyne missing the last three matches through injury.
(Top photo: Matt McNulty/Getty Images)
