I’m not exactly sure how the Atlanta Falcons keep winning games and I’m not exactly sure how the Cincinnati Bengals keep losing games but here we are. The Falcons needed a fumble, a missed facemask call, a perfectly executed spike and a coin flip to win the game while the Bengals were gifted a Lamar Jackson fumble only to play for a long field goal which surprisingly didn’t work out. Sigh.
Two losses on those two teams in excruciating fashion last week keeps us from a winning week, but the Commanders are the cover train that keeps on rolling. Maybe some foreshadowing there.
Last week’s record: 1-2, -0.5 units
Season record: 12-13-2, -1.25 units, -4.3% ROI
The process feels good so far this year despite the poor results so we keep chugging along. Three plays to start the week, but another will be added as the week progresses, I can promise you that. The New York Giants were almost on the card — the offense has been playing quite well — but Malik Nabers remains in concussion protocol and Kayvon Thibodeaux had surgery on his wrist this morning and will be sidelined for a couple of weeks.
As always, shop around for the best price and good luck to us!
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Best bets for NFL Week 6
All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. I’m also sharing a “worst line to bet,” which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet. All odds are from BetMGM.
Washington Commanders +6.5 (-110) at Baltimore Ravens
Do I have concerns about the Commanders defense stopping the Ravens offense and Lamar Jackson? Absolutely. But I share the same concerns for the Ravens defense stopping the Commanders offense and Jayden Daniels. Daniels has been incredible in his short NFL career and I’m not quite sure the market has caught up to them yet as I was on Washington last week as well. Daniels is the type of quarterback that I enjoy being on as a decent-sized underdog because his legs are going to be able to keep drives alive which means 1) Lamar Jackson spends more time on the side lines and 2) keeping drives alive is paramount for keeping the backdoor open.
- Worst line to bet: Commanders +6.5 (-115)
New England Patriots moneyline (+260) vs. Houston Texans (risk 0.5 units)
I don’t care to bet the Pats on the spread this week but with rookie Drake Maye slated to start, I think there is greater chance of a Patriots outright victory than a normal game lined around a touchdown spread. Throw in the fact that the Texans will be without wide receiver Nico Collins and I wouldn’t be too shocked if the Texans are a little slow on offense in this one.
- Worst price to bet: Patriots moneyline +250
New York Jets +2.5 (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills
Robert Saleh isn’t on the sidelines anymore, but I don’t think that affects my number on the Jets all that much. Khalil Shakir didn’t practice on Wednesday for the Bills and I think he’s pretty important to the Bills solving defenses that like to play man-coverage. I’ll take my chances on Josh Allen having to do too much without Shakir while also possibly holding out for a Davante Adams trade to unlock this Jets offense with Aaron Rodgers under center. But even without the pie in the sky dream for Adams, I think the Jets have value at this price.
- Worst price to bet: Jets +2 (-110)
(Photo of Jayden Daniels: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
