We have two weeks of game data from this season to incorporate into my college football projection model. Ahead of Week 3 action, there are some notable differences in what my model sees as opposed to what the betting lines see.
For example, my model likes LSU by 11 points at South Carolina even though that spread is only LSU -7. Perhaps this is an overreaction to South Carolina blowing out Kentucky last week. As for some of the other notable games of Week 3, my model thinks Oregon State can give Oregon another test despite a 16.5-point spread and thinks Missouri can cover a three-score spread against Boston College.
The model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on Week 3 of the college football season, check out my updated CFP projections and my Week 3 best bets, which are based on my model’s projections.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.
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College football Week 3 score projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
| Team | xMOV | BETMGM Line | xTOTAL | BETMGM TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona State |
|
|
61
|
59.5
|
 Texas State |
4.5
|
-1.5
|
|
|
 UNLV |
|
|
58
|
58.5
|
 Kansas |
-9
|
-8.5
|
|
|
 Arizona |
|
|
62.5
|
59.5
|
 Kansas State |
-7
|
-7
|
|
|
 Alabama |
|
|
48
|
49
|
 Wisconsin |
14
|
16.5
|
|
|
 Arkansas St. |
|
|
44.5
|
47.5
|
 Michigan |
-22.5
|
-23.5
|
|
|
 Cincinnati |
|
|
44.5
|
46.5
|
 Miami (OH) |
4
|
3.5
|
|
|
 North Texas |
|
|
65.5
|
69.5
|
 Texas Tech |
-14.5
|
-9.5
|
|
|
 Memphis |
|
|
52.5
|
53.5
|
 Florida State |
-6.5
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 LSU |
|
|
50
|
48
|
 So. Carolina |
11
|
7
|
|
|
 Oklahoma St. |
|
|
60.5
|
62.5
|
 Tulsa |
14.5
|
19.5
|
|
|
 La. Tech |
|
|
49
|
48.5
|
 NC State |
-19.5
|
-21.5
|
|
|
 Central Mich. |
|
|
52.5
|
48.5
|
 Illinois |
-21
|
-18.5
|
|
|
 BC |
|
|
55.5
|
54
|
 Missouri |
-19
|
-16.5
|
|
|
 UMass |
|
|
48
|
44.5
|
 Buffalo |
-1.5
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 Coastal Caro. |
|
|
56
|
52.5
|
 Temple |
13.5
|
18.5
|
|
|
 Oregon |
|
|
54
|
50.5
|
 Oregon State |
10
|
16.5
|
|
|
 Wash. State |
|
|
60.5
|
56.5
|
 Washington |
-5.5
|
-4.5
|
|
|
 Ball State |
|
|
51
|
55.5
|
 Miami |
-34
|
-36.5
|
|
|
 Texas A&M |
|
|
44
|
47.5
|
 Florida |
5
|
3.5
|
|
|
 Tulane |
|
|
48
|
46.5
|
 Oklahoma |
-15
|
-13.5
|
|
|
 West Virginia |
|
|
59.5
|
64.5
|
 Pittsburgh |
-1
|
2
|
|
|
 Notre Dame |
|
|
47.5
|
45.5
|
 Purdue |
11
|
10
|
|
|
 Nevada |
|
|
38.5
|
43.5
|
 Minnesota |
-15.5
|
-17.5
|
|
|
 Troy |
|
|
34.5
|
38.5
|
 Iowa |
-19.5
|
-22.5
|
|
|
 App. State |
|
|
60
|
60.5
|
 East Carolina |
2.5
|
1.5
|
|
|
 UAB |
|
|
64.5
|
61.5
|
 Arkansas |
-17
|
-24.5
|
|
|
 Utah |
|
|
43.5
|
43.5
|
 Utah State |
21.5
|
18.5
|
|
|
 UTEP |
|
|
55.5
|
57.5
|
 Liberty |
-20
|
-23.5
|
|
|
 UConn |
|
|
46.5
|
48
|
 Duke |
-16.5
|
-16.5
|
|
|
 Virginia Tech |
|
|
52
|
48.5
|
 Old Dominion |
16
|
14.5
|
|
|
 FIU |
|
|
43
|
44.5
|
 FAU |
-11
|
-5.5
|
|
|
 Ole Miss |
|
|
62
|
64.5
|
 Wake Forest |
19.5
|
22.5
|
|
|
 Vanderbilt |
|
|
47
|
44
|
 Georgia State |
8
|
10.5
|
|
|
 South Florida |
|
|
57
|
58.5
|
 Southern Miss |
5.5
|
11.5
|
|
|
 W. Kentucky |
|
|
55.5
|
54.5
|
 Middle Tenn. |
6
|
7
|
|
|
 Hawai’i |
|
|
48
|
49.5
|
 Sam Houston |
0.5
|
-4.5
|
|
|
 J’ville State |
|
|
49
|
54.5
|
 Eastern Mich. |
2
|
-1.5
|
|
|
 UTSA |
|
|
52
|
56.5
|
 Texas |
-27.5
|
-35.5
|
|
|
 UCF |
|
|
64
|
62.5
|
 TCU |
-3.5
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Toledo |
|
|
54
|
58.5
|
 Miss. State |
-7.5
|
-11.5
|
|
|
 Air Force |
|
|
45
|
41.5
|
 Baylor |
-8.5
|
-16.5
|
|
|
 Colorado |
|
|
58.5
|
58.5
|
 Colorado St. |
11
|
7
|
|
|
 Indiana |
|
|
48
|
46.5
|
 UCLA |
2
|
3
|
|
|
 New Mexico |
|
|
55
|
60.5
|
 Auburn |
-28
|
-28
|
|
|
 Georgia |
|
|
46
|
45.5
|
 Kentucky |
20.5
|
24.5
|
|
|
 Kent State |
|
|
66
|
62.5
|
 Tennessee |
-47.5
|
-49.5
|
|
|
 Maryland |
|
|
52.5
|
57.5
|
 Virginia |
2.5
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Rice |
|
|
45
|
44.5
|
 Houston |
-6
|
-4
|
|
|
 BYU |
|
|
42
|
40
|
 Wyoming |
6.5
|
11.5
|
|
|
 San Diego St. |
|
|
49
|
48
|
 California |
-12.5
|
-18.5
|
|
|
 Kennesaw St. |
|
|
42.5
|
44
|
 San Jose St. |
-22.5
|
-19.5
|
|
|
 New Mexico St. |
|
|
48.5
|
47.5
|
 Fresno State |
-16.5
|
-19.5
|
|
|
(Photo of LaNorris Sellers: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
