I got off to a decent start last week but struggled the rest of the weekend and went 3-8 vs the spread to drop to seven games under .500 against the number on the young season.
The good: picking Texas to have little trouble in Ann Arbor. The bad: picking NC State to keep it close against Tennessee. The ugly: picking Auburn to coast by Cal.
Here are this week’s guesses:
(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds. All kickoff times ET and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
Arizona State at Texas State (-1.5), 7:30 p.m., Thursday, ESPN
GJ Kinne’s team smashed a good UTSA program earlier this season while Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils handled Mississippi State to give Arizona State its first win all time (in six tries) against an SEC opponent. I don’t think the Bobcats will shut down ASU running back Cam Skattebo, but I think their offense — led by seventh-year senior quarterback Jordan McCloud — will pull this one out late.
Texas State 35, Arizona State 31
Pick: Texas State -1.5
UNLV at Kansas (-8.5), 7 p.m., Friday, ESPN
Jalon Daniels has gotten off to a slow start, with four interceptions in Kansas’ first two games. I think he will settle back down, but the Rebels’ potent rushing attack (349.0 yards per game) should give the Jayhawks some headaches and keep this game tight.
Kansas 31, UNLV 30
Pick: UNLV +8.5
Arizona at Kansas State (-7), 8 p.m., Friday, Fox
This is the game I’m most curious to see this weekend. Arizona’s offense is so explosive, but Kansas State, coming off a tight win against a good Tulane team, is dynamic as well. The Cats (from Manhattan) have a dangerous 1-2 punch at running back with DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards, which complements speedy QB Avery Johnson really well. Arizona had a lot of problems with New Mexico’s run game in the opener. K-State’s is even more lethal.
Kansas State 38, Arizona 28
Pick: Kansas State -7
Alabama (-16.5) at Wisconsin, noon, Fox
The Badgers have really sputtered so far, but they’ve managed to get to 2-0 before they face a much more talented opponent than what they’ve seen thus far. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke gets a major test against Alabama, which figures to be able to handle Wisconsin’s run game and bottle up the Badgers.
Alabama 35, Wisconsin 17
Pick: Alabama -16.5
LSU (-7) at South Carolina, noon, ABC
Shane Beamer’s team has some freaky young talent on defense (edge Dylan Stewart and super-sized safety Nick Emmanwori), which has given opponents fits thus far. But I think LSU’s talented offensive line will be able to contain the Gamecocks playmakers on defense. This is the first true road test for quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who has been very sharp since taking over at LSU (eight TD passes, one INT this season). LSU has beaten South Carolina seven straight times.
LSU 23, South Carolina 14
Pick: LSU -7
Boston College at Missouri (-16.5), 12:45, SEC Network
The Tigers haven’t been tested at all this year, but quarterback Thomas Castellanos and BC will do so this weekend. The Eagles have a really good offense, especially in the run game. Expect them to give Missouri a lot of problems, but Brady Cook has a ton of weapons too and the Tigers have the homefield edge to outlast Boston College.
Missouri 31, Boston College 24
Pick: Boston College +16.5
Notre Dame (-10) at Purdue, 3:30, CBS
Notre Dame is coming off a big upset loss to Northern Illinois. It’ll be interesting to see how Marcus Freeman’s program responds. I think the Irish’s defense is really good and will help them power through by slowing down Hudson Card and Purdue’s Air Raid attack. Look for the Irish’s run game to rescue a shaky offense.
Notre Dame 24, Purdue 20
Pick: Purdue +10
Oregon (-16.5) at Oregon State, 3:30, Fox
The Ducks have survived two really close games. Their O-line has been shaky as they try to find the right pieces inside, but it looked like things started to get sorted out last week. I think the offense will click this weekend in Corvallis and the Ducks will jump all over the Beavers.
Oregon 44, Oregon State 21
Pick: Oregon -16.5
West Virginia (-2) at Pittsburgh, 3:30, ESPN2
I know the Mountaineers are the road team, but I think they are seasoned enough to handle the environment and get a close win. QB Garrett Greene tends to use his legs more on the road (10 of his 13 rushing TDs came away from home last year), and I think that can make this offense so much more potent.
West Virginia 24, Pitt 20
Pick: West Virginia -2
Indiana (-3) at UCLA, 7:30, NBC
It’s a long trip for the Hoosiers, but Curt Cignetti has them playing really well and this is a very experienced group led by QB Kurtis Rourke, a former MAC Offensive Player of the Year. Indiana also has a bunch of playmakers on defense. Meanwhile, the Bruins are still trying to establish their identity after a very shaky opener at Hawaii.
Indiana 28, UCLA 17
Pick: Indiana -3
Georgia (-24.5) at Kentucky, 6:30, ABC
Kentucky quarterback Brock Vandagriff faces his old team. Georgia knows he’s talented, but the Cats offense has looked woeful so far. Good luck trying to get this fixed against the Bulldogs defense.
Georgia 42, Kentucky 14
Pick: Georgia -24.5
Upset Special
Washington State vs. Washington (-4.5), 3:30, Peacock (at Lumen Field in Seattle)
Get to know Washington State’s John Mateer, one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. The Cougars, who have a big chip on their shoulder, are fearless and dangerous, and Washington is still coming together as Jedd Fisch rebuilds the roster. Freshman Wayshawn Parker is a big-play running back who has three carries of 20-plus yards in Washington State’s first two games.
Washington State 31, Washington 28
Pick: Washington State +4.5
(Photo of Jalen Milroe: Gary Cosby Jr. / USA Today)
