Why Edmonton Oilers' issues in season-opening loss were predictable

The Edmonton Oilers’ loss to the Winnipeg Jets in the regular-season opener on Wednesday night might be the worst Game 1 in team history.

That’s saying something, because last year’s blowout loss to the Vancouver Canucks looked like an all-time nadir at the time and is fresh in the collective memory of fans.

The cascade of misery from that game a year ago ultimately resulted in the team’s starting goaltender Jack Campbell being waived, sent to the minors and eventually bought out. It was also the beginning of a stunning downhill spiral for head coach Jay Woodcroft, who had been a rising star in coaching ranks before the elevator shaft of Game 1 created doubt. He was fired before anyone had to order more sticks.

This year’s opening loss is being viewed by some as the team coming to grips with losing in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final against the Florida Panthers.

There was also a significant turnover of roster players. It was unusually large, owing to the dual offer sheets to Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, plus the frenzy that brought in Adam Henrique, Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner and others in the early days of free agency.

There’s another possible reason for the slow start to the 2024-25 campaign.

Coach Kris Knoblauch, conducting his first training camp, approached the eight-game preseason schedule with an eye to getting a long look at a large group of players, and giving veterans plenty of rest.

Was that a good idea?

Pairings and ice time

During the 2024-25 preseason, the Jets ran the pairings we saw more than the Oilers deployed the duos on display in Game 1. Here are the numbers, via Natural Stat Trick

All numbers five-on-five

The Jets suffered injuries to Logan Stanley and Ville Heinola and still found a way to get each of the opening night pairings significant playing time together.

Edmonton’s coaching staff made sure the top pairing (Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard) were well prepared, and their play reflected it. The Bouchard misstep at the blue line that led to a breakaway was an early mistake, but Stuart Skinner made the stop to save the day. The pairing was on the ice for the fourth Winnipeg goal (Dylan Samberg) but played the situation well (that was a stop the goalie needed to make). The No. 1 duo kept a clean slate otherwise and won the five-on-five shot share (70 percent) handsomely in the game.

The second pairing, Darnell Nurse and Ty Emberson, played just 14 minutes together at five-on-five during the preseason. Nurse’s injury recovery did impact availability, but the organization chose to play Nurse with another partner in one of his two games. Opportunity missed.

On the Mason Appleton goal, Nurse had his man along the wall just inside the blue line, leaving Emberson solo once the (impressive pass) got through just inside the blue line. Among the problems on the play (there were many, including Connor McDavid late for the sky in marking his man) may have been a lack of familiarity for each defenceman.

The Rasmus Kupari goal was a great example of the two defencemen not being in sync. As the puck came down the wall behind the net from the left side, Nurse ran some light interference in an effort to thwart the Jets winger from gaining possession. It’s a good bet that Nurse’s thought process had Emberson able to corral the puck and head north by pass or carry.

Emberson never impacted the play, having only a great view of the brilliant cross-ice pass by Josh Morrissey and then the goal.

Emberson was playing in his 31st game in the NHL. More minutes together for this pairing might have increased the duo’s effectiveness on the play.

The third pairing (Brett Kulak and Travis Dermott) owned good possession numbers five-on-five, but Travis Dermott was unable to box out Adam Lowry on the first Winnipeg goal.

What may come

Last season was a difficult one for Nurse and the start of this one wasn’t better.

His contract ($9.25 million AAV) and no-movement clause make Nurse a favourite target for fans when things go poorly. He’ll submit a 10-team no-trade list on July 1, 2027, but until then the big man is a lock for the Edmonton roster.

The news of his injury and recovery in preseason this year highlights a truth about NHL players: Even though playing hurt reduces effectiveness and leaves players open to strong criticism, the entire hockey industry shows up and plays through pain.

Nurse has been playing big minutes against elite competition for many years; at some point, a reset may be necessary. Last season, Ekholm played more (but not much more) versus elites, according to Puck IQ.

The other arrow in Knoblauch’s quiver is to play McDavid with Nurse and (possibly) Bouchard.

Nurse and McDavid have shown an ability to deliver versus elites over the years. Here’s a look at their production together versus elites over the last three NHL seasons, via Puck IQ.

All numbers five-on-five

Outstanding numbers, but the McDavid line with Ekholm and Bouchard is the premium five-man group available to Knoblauch.

Checking down to Nurse would mean less pure production, but could mean more outscoring by the team at five-on-five.

It’s an option.

In Game 1 versus Winnipeg, McDavid-Ekholm played 12 minutes together at five-on-five. The shot differential (12-4) was exceptional and the Oilers did not score or get scored upon with the two men on the ice together, via Natural Stat Trick.

In that game, McDavid-Nurse played three minutes at five-on-five and were 0-1 shots and 0-1 goals.

Bottom line

It’s a good guess that Knoblauch will run his training camp differently next fall. An extra game for Nurse-Emberson and more time for Kulak-Dermott may have benefitted the team Wednesday.

Chances are the coach will have an eye to earlier readiness in 2025.

Nurse-Emberson now have two games together and are approaching what should be an easier weekend against the Chicago Blackhawks and Calgary Flames.

The Oilers were not good across the roster against the Jets.

A strong game from Edmonton’s defence, and goaltender Skinner, should put a lot of the current anxiety surrounding the team to rest.

It goes without saying that defence wasn’t the only issue in a game in which the Oilers didn’t score a goal.

This team is still a long way from last year’s 2-7-1 start in the first 10 games. That’s a must to avoid.

(Photo of Darnell Nurse: Perry Nelson / Imagn Images)