Welcome to the midseason SEC football mailbag. When we last did this after Week 1, there were topics of coaching hot seats, which freshmen impressed most and optimism ratings about each team. A lot has happened since then, and last week alone was enough to shake up the entire season. But we can say this: SEC football never disappoints.
This conference has produced two of the biggest upsets of the season, if not the two biggest, and the highest television ratings in college football and there’s no shortage of College Football Playoff contenders, Heisman Trophy hopefuls, freshman sensations and week-to-week drama.
This weekend’s slate includes the first-ever SEC Red River Rivalry, Ole Miss at LSU in a rematch of last year’s shootout and Florida at Tennessee. Next week? Georgia at Texas and Alabama at Tennessee. That leads to November, which will have more big games and intensified conversations of the SEC Championship Game and the Playoff.
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So let’s get into the SEC midseason mailbag, which touches every corner of the conference.
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
What are Vanderbilt’s chances to win six-plus games this season? — Grzegorz K.
How could we not start the mailbag without mentioning the most startling result of the year? Clark Lea is the coach of the year in the first half of the season, and this question is legitimate. Can Vandy post its first .500 or better regular season since 2016? And what’s the pathway to get there?
First, Saturday will tell us a lot about Vanderbilt. The win over Alabama was monumental, but the real challenge is not getting too caught up in the moment. Nick Saban always warned about rat poison, and Vanderbilt has gotten plenty of praise and media attention, while Kentucky is coming off a bye week after its upset win over Ole Miss. How will Vanderbilt respond?
I’m putting Vanderbilt’s chances of six wins at about 65 percent. Here’s how it happens: In its three wins, Vanderbilt has zero turnovers and a plus-five turnover margin. Remember the Georgia State loss? Turnovers swung that game in the Panthers’ favor. Play clean football, continue to win the time of possession and let Diego Pavia cook. Sounds easy enough, right?
What are the realistic best outcomes for teams? Who has risen, who has fallen and who has met expectations? — Greg M.
Alabama (met expectations): The loss to Vandy is inexplicable, but a 4-1 record and a top-10 ranking is where I thought this team would be. The best-case scenario is that the Vanderbilt loss was a loud alarm needed to wake up this team to the fact there’s still a long way to go. A defense that has given up 784 yards in the past six quarters has to start playing up to the Alabama standard and complement an explosive offense.
Arkansas (exceeded expectations): It feels like the best-case scenario has happened: The offense under Bobby Petrino is rolling (fourth best in the SEC in yards per game), the defense has shown flashes (see Tennessee game) and Sam Pittman’s hot seat is much cooler. Arkansas feels stable and is a team that has ascended. Improve the turnover margin, and a winning regular season record is very much in play.
Auburn (fallen below expectations): Who would’ve predicted that Auburn would be last in the SEC standings? The best-case scenario is that the turnovers stop (minus-11, worst in college football). That alone probably would get the Tigers to bowl eligibility, which seems unlikely at this point.
Florida (met expectations): It feels like Billy Napier has been a lame-duck coach since Week 3, but Florida’s 3-2 record is decent, and there’s a pathway to bowl eligibility. Tennessee has shown it’s vulnerable, the Kentucky game is winnable, and Florida State is even more disastrous than Florida. That’s not counting the possibility of another major upset, which we’ve seen can happen at any time. It feels like Napier’s fate is sealed, but can the Gators reach a bowl game?
Georgia (met expectations): With a top-five ranking and one of the best wins this season (Clemson), Georgia is where we thought it would be, but the vibes aren’t great. There’s the tough Alabama loss, and neither side of the ball is playing at a very high level, while Colbie Young’s arrest is a distraction and a blow to the wide receiver depth. The best case would be no more off-field issues and Carson Beck plays like a true top-five draft prospect and elevates the offense.
Kentucky (met expectations): Kentucky kicked off the wave of major upsets a few weeks ago against Ole Miss and has found a formula for winning games. The best-case scenario is that the bye last week allowed for it to find some answers offensively. If Mark Stoops can get more from the offense (last in the SEC), Kentucky could be looking at an eight- or nine-win season.
LSU (has not met expectations): LSU is 4-1 and ranked 13th, yet there hasn’t been a game this year when a Tigers fan left feeling proud of the team. The offense has taken a step back (to be expected), the defense is a little better (96th nationally, up from 109th last season), and the best win is an escape against South Carolina. This is just an average team. The best-case scenario is that the Tigers found a spark during their bye, unleash it against Ole Miss on Saturday and never look back.
Missouri (has not met expectations): The record looks fine, but the eye test is telling us that this is an underperforming team: ninth best offense in the conference, eighth-best defense. The best-case scenario is that Brady Cook and Luther Burden III find last year’s magic and lead the Tigers to an 11-1 finish, which should be enough for the Playoff. Is that realistic? Not really even though the schedule is weak.
Mississippi State (met expectations): What we’re seeing is the result of a program that has had three coaches and scheme changes in the past three years. Mississippi State’s unquestionably the worst team in the conference, but it plays hard, and that means something. It has the 35th-ranked recruiting class, according to 247Sports, so it can hope to keep building on that and find a way to win a conference game or two.
Oklahoma (has not met expectations): Oklahoma’s record is fine, and the defense is good, but the team’s ceiling feels way lower than it did in Week 1. That’s part injuries and another part an offense that has fallen apart amid a quarterback conundrum. Maybe the bye allowed for the coaching staff to figure out how to build an offense around Michael Hawkins.
Ole Miss (has not met expectations): The Kentucky loss puts Ole Miss just slightly below its expectations, but this is still a top-10 team, and it was nice to see the team bounce back and get a win at South Carolina. The offensive and defensive numbers are strong (first in the SEC offensively and second defensively), but that’s skewed by playing subpar teams. Ole Miss needs to show some type of toughness against marquee teams. If the Rebels can do that, the sky’s the limit.
South Carolina (has met expectations): Watching South Carolina has been like riding a roller coaster with no seat belt: exciting at times, really tense at others. But looking at the schedule, 3-2 is where you’d expect it to be based on preseason expectations. There’s a lot of talent on this team, but its 5.5 preseason win total looks shaky. The next three games are at Alabama, at Oklahoma and home vs. Texas A&M with Vanderbilt, Missouri and Clemson ahead. Can LaNorris Sellers’ growth lead to a bowl and help cause some havoc?
Tennessee (has met expectations): Before the season, Tennessee was ranked 15th and seen as a fringe Playoff team. Nothing has changed, the Arkansas loss notwithstanding. This is a team that’s squarely in the SEC championship and Playoff race, but the Volunteers need to find a downfield passing game to complement the run. I defended Nico Iamaleava in this week’s national over/under reactions, but he has completed just 6 of 22 passes of 10-plus yards the past two weeks. That has to improve.
Texas (met expectations): You could make the case that Texas has even exceeded expectations. It has been the most consistent team, seamlessly managed a potential quarterback injury and now feels it has two quarterbacks who can win a championship. The Longhorns have the No. 1 scoring defense in the SEC, and they have to hope injuries don’t derail what feels like a national championship season.
Texas A&M (exceeded expectations): Texas A&M has been one of the best stories in college football. This is a team that has completely revamped itself after losing to Notre Dame, like Texas has navigated a potentially difficult QB situation and is ascending. Who would’ve thought that Texas A&M would be in first place in the SEC standings at 3-0? If not Lea, then Mike Elko is the front-runner for SEC Coach of the Year.
Vanderbilt (exceeded expectations): To quote my colleague Seth Emerson: “Diego Pavia is the new Stetson Bennett.” The Commodores are part of relevant football conversations in October. It doesn’t get much better than that for this program.
Has Stoops taken Kentucky as far as it can go? Do you foresee him looking for other opportunities after this season? — Euan D.
I do believe Stoops has taken Kentucky as far as it can go, but I would frame it differently. Stoops has elevated Kentucky to a place it has never been. The only contemporary in Kentucky history is the great Bear Bryant, which says plenty.
Kentucky is on the doorstep of nine straight bowl game appearances. He has made beating Florida feel like something that should happen, and he just took Georgia to the brink and followed that with a win over top-10 Ole Miss. There’s a ceiling for Kentucky’s program with a priority on basketball and recruiting limitations that likely will prevent Kentucky from ever winning at the highest level. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be more viable nationally, especially now in the expanded Playoff era. We’ve seen 10-win seasons under Stoops before, so there’s reason to believe he can do it again in the future.
Do I foresee him entertaining offers after this year? Maybe, he did last year, so who’s to say he won’t again? But I believe he understands he has a good thing going at Kentucky, and it would be hard to walk away from that. Plus, I don’t see a pending job opening that will lure him away.
As we round the corner to the season’s midway point, pick the three games most impactful for teams that will ominously play in the championship on Dec. 7 in Atlanta. — Perry M.
What’s exciting about this season, aided by no divisions, is that there are several teams alive in the SEC championship race. There are a ton of great games upcoming to choose from, but here are the three I’m most interested in:
Alabama at Tennessee, Oct. 19: Both programs suffering upset losses turned this game into a de-facto “play out” game for the SEC championship and a Playoff bubble game. The winner would be sitting pretty with just one SEC loss and a huge win, and the loser probably would be done in the SEC championship game race and would need to win out to make the Playoff as an at-large.
Georgia at Ole Miss, Nov. 9: This game can look a lot different by then: Both teams could have just one loss, both could have two losses, or one team has one loss and the other has two. However you slice it, this is one of the most impactful games for the SEC championship and Playoff race. I see a scenario where Ole Miss has one loss and needs this win to get to Atlanta while Georgia, with two losses after Texas, is fighting for its Playoff life. That would be cinema.
Texas at Texas A&M, Nov. 30: This already was one of the most anticipated SEC games of the year. Now there are legitimate SEC championship implications. There’s a real chance that this game could be played, and then these two teams would meet again in Atlanta for the SEC championship. If you thought the game would be intense before, add these extra layers, and it feels like an instant classic is brewing.
(Top photo of Clark Lea: Steve Roberts / Imagn Images)
